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PLEX is dropping. How low can it go?

Author
#1 - 2016-12-31 09:42:59 UTC
It seems like PLEX has pushed down past the 1 bil mark on the buy order side. There has been resistance there the past few weeks, but it looks like it's broken thru. The next historic resistance looks like around 900 mil from last summer (WWB and Citadel expansion).

My question: Where do you think he drop will stop and why?
Evictus.
#2 - 2016-12-31 11:47:03 UTC
We have a lot of new players and they tend to buy PLEX from CCP and sell it in game for ISK which will increase supply

We have some players who no longer need to grind a PLEX to remain active socially which will reduce demand.

We have new toys that require capital investment and a lot of that capital will come from liquidating PLEX increasing supply.

Gambling sites are gone so it's likely less of the ISK they would have earned is being stored in PLEX reducing demand.

We have a major war just finished in the North and another just beginning in the South. PLEX will be used to finance these and to finance reconstruction of lost assets when they are over. There is a construction boom in capital and super-capital ships.

PLEX has built-in negative feedback to stabilize its value - lower prices increase demand and vice-versa so I don't expect a crash but I doubt the value will rise until the current spending spree is over and people start to save again.

#3 - 2016-12-31 14:35:00 UTC
It seems like 1 bil is the sweet spot for PLEX.

Because if the price is too high or too low, both scenarios would be unhealthy for the game. I think CCP has a preference range of where they want PLEX to be.

To me, it looks like the range is between 900 mil - 1.2 bil.
In Tea We Trust
#4 - 2016-12-31 18:57:41 UTC
Unlikely to fall below 900m, may not even fall that far.

Having sold off 500 PLEX at ~1200m, I've now re-bought 200 PLEX at ~990m and will continue to buy for a while yet.

Of course, CCP could do something stupid and screw everything up again, in which case PLEX price will be the least of our concerns.
#5 - 2017-01-01 02:53:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Kousaka Otsu Shigure
As always, just buy before the upswing, its an opportunity!

PLEX value has always gone up and at least once a month, some portion of the players consume it so its a good investment overall.

The bulk of the hisec PLEX market is in the buy orders, and a quick skim on the listings says theres a net around the 970~950M mark. Sellers however has a concentration in 1030~1050M mark, with a lot of single unit sell orders before it.

Archiver, Software Developer and Data Slave

Current Project Status: What can I make with these minerals?

Stain Confederation
#6 - 2017-01-01 05:19:43 UTC
Im assuming it is a temporary spike in supply over the holidays. If you look at injectors they have rocketed over the last week which is most likely what some of that extra supply is being used to purchase. I dont think plex will drop much more than this.
Evictus.
#7 - 2017-01-01 09:43:56 UTC
Differences of opinion make a healthy market. Buyer and seller both consider themselves better off!

A look at the November economic report shows the velocity of money spiked after the Ascention release and has been much higher than normal since spiking in anticipation of the Citadel release. This is incredibly good for the game but it means wealth is not being stored in PLEX. What little I know about economics tells me that the price of PLEX and the velocity of money should move in opposite directions!

Edit: forgot the link http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70766/1/9c_velocity.png
#8 - 2017-01-01 15:20:02 UTC
Views on the likely consequence for the PLEX market of the wardec on the PLEX trading citadel? I can't help but wonder if the dec is tied to a manipulation attempt.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

#9 - 2017-01-04 16:41:12 UTC
Woot, just bought PLEX for 970M at Perimeter, and on a weekday! Trends look like its slowing down though..

Archiver, Software Developer and Data Slave

Current Project Status: What can I make with these minerals?

#10 - 2017-01-04 21:29:41 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
Views on the likely consequence for the PLEX market of the wardec on the PLEX trading citadel? I can't help but wonder if the dec is tied to a manipulation attempt.


Some PLEX I bought in Ashab went to asset safety/recovery (unsure whether the citadel was blown up or offlined). Luckily I noticed before the 20 days were out or I would have had to pay a 15% fee to recover them. I can imagine that some people are up for a nasty surprise.
Goonswarm Federation
#11 - 2017-01-04 22:42:32 UTC
Do Little wrote:
We have a lot of new players and they tend to buy PLEX from CCP and sell it in game for ISK which will increase supply

We have some players who no longer need to grind a PLEX to remain active socially which will reduce demand.

We have new toys that require capital investment and a lot of that capital will come from liquidating PLEX increasing supply.

Gambling sites are gone so it's likely less of the ISK they would have earned is being stored in PLEX reducing demand.

We have a major war just finished in the North and another just beginning in the South. PLEX will be used to finance these and to finance reconstruction of lost assets when they are over. There is a construction boom in capital and super-capital ships.

PLEX has built-in negative feedback to stabilize its value - lower prices increase demand and vice-versa so I don't expect a crash but I doubt the value will rise until the current spending spree is over and people start to save again.



Hmmm....pretty good. I'd say this covers it.

Increased supply, decreased demand...pretty much it. Both of these effects reduce the price.

So much for all the spreg posts about there being a cabal controlling the price of PLEX. Oh, wait, yeah...I know. They are dropping the price of PLEX on purpose (via some magic or something...maybe sacrificing chickens) and snapping up cheap PLEX. Roll

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Test Alliance Please Ignore
#12 - 2017-01-05 20:45:10 UTC
Indy Clone Alpha wrote:
It seems like PLEX has pushed down past the 1 bil mark on the buy order side. There has been resistance there the past few weeks, but it looks like it's broken thru. The next historic resistance looks like around 900 mil from last summer (WWB and Citadel expansion).

My question: Where do you think he drop will stop and why?

I think its the new plex cycle, hovers around the 900-1.2bil mark , fluctuating etc. Not the first time plex prices have sharply come down this year.
Solitaire.
#13 - 2017-01-05 21:29:00 UTC
Hopefully back down to 300-400m like it was 7 years ago.
#14 - 2017-01-05 22:19:00 UTC
Matthias Ancaladron wrote:
Hopefully back down to 300-400m like it was 7 years ago.



I've been away a bit, so seeing that price jump made my head hurt.
The Initiative.
#15 - 2017-01-07 12:06:55 UTC
Matthias Ancaladron wrote:
Hopefully back down to 300-400m like it was 7 years ago.


It will never again be as low as even double that unless CCP do something extremely drastic and unexpected, like halve the cost of subscribing & PLEX. The reason is that the potential for an account to make ISK has significantly increased since then. Even at 1B, a high skilled character should be able to earn a PLEX in a day. 33M ISK/day is a pretty trivial amount to make if you're not brand new.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Solitaire.
#16 - 2017-01-07 23:45:03 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Matthias Ancaladron wrote:
Hopefully back down to 300-400m like it was 7 years ago.


It will never again be as low as even double that unless CCP do something extremely drastic and unexpected, like halve the cost of subscribing & PLEX. The reason is that the potential for an account to make ISK has significantly increased since then. Even at 1B, a high skilled character should be able to earn a PLEX in a day. 33M ISK/day is a pretty trivial amount to make if you're not brand new.

That's a lot for alphas though as far as grinding goes unless you do exploration and get lots of lucky drops.
Axiom Vocation Alliance
#17 - 2017-01-08 00:30:28 UTC
Do Little wrote:
We have a lot of new players and they tend to buy PLEX from CCP and sell it in game for ISK which will increase supply

We have some players who no longer need to grind a PLEX to remain active socially which will reduce demand.

We have new toys that require capital investment and a lot of that capital will come from liquidating PLEX increasing supply.

Gambling sites are gone so it's likely less of the ISK they would have earned is being stored in PLEX reducing demand.

We have a major war just finished in the North and another just beginning in the South. PLEX will be used to finance these and to finance reconstruction of lost assets when they are over. There is a construction boom in capital and super-capital ships.

PLEX has built-in negative feedback to stabilize its value - lower prices increase demand and vice-versa so I don't expect a crash but I doubt the value will rise until the current spending spree is over and people start to save again.



Why you think we have lots of new players that actually buy plex?

I am really happy that that gambling crap was shut down and good riddance IWI and its LK

The winter was is fun, I am still having trouble loading Jan first kill board but i think it was close to 1 trill isk
but look at the last seven days , 5 titans already down lol https://zkillboard.com/related/30002579/201701072100/
plus all the caps there were whelped after TEST warped out on Jan first as well.

Its pretty understandable why PLEX went up fromm 500 m to 1 bill today, cause doing elvel 4 missions for about 2 days and you might plex the account, BUT not everyone likes grindign that way, on top of that that there are opportunities to make 100-300 mill of null activity per hour which makes the PLEX price stupidly low in comparison with the effort depending on your environment.

From basic perspective that it now takes 1 day or 8 hours or less of null activity to generate isk for Plex, i am really starting to think plex price only will go up as more and more pilots find there way to those isk generation opportunities.

According to the labor needed for one Plex- it might be very cheap now( in the current environment)

You thoughts on this?


Gallente Federation
#18 - 2017-01-08 12:25:18 UTC
I would argue that an actual indicator would be injector prices. Extractors can almost directly bought with plex, while newbies in no small part pay for disparity in value of injectors to plex which comes out at almost 150%. When the CCP marketing machine starts up (which it has not for game production reasons) PLEX will likely sink unless CCP adapts this line of reasoning and lets markets catch up (SP farming).
#19 - 2017-01-09 06:10:05 UTC
Illindar Tyrannus wrote:
I would argue that an actual indicator would be injector prices. Extractors can almost directly bought with plex, while newbies in no small part pay for disparity in value of injectors to plex which comes out at almost 150%. When the CCP marketing machine starts up (which it has not for game production reasons) PLEX will likely sink unless CCP adapts this line of reasoning and lets markets catch up (SP farming).



I do not think injectors and PLEX prices will stay coupled in the long term.

In fact, I expect injectors to going to crash relative to PLEX (not considering where they might end up relative to ISK, just to PLEX).

Basically a PLEX provides two things: 720 hours Omega game access, and about 1.6m SP.

The people who will sell injectors at the lowest prices are the people who care about the Omega time but do not care about the SP.

A number of CODE. pilots already have started treating their SP gains as a sellable 'waste product' of the PLEX that fund their game access. Plug in cheap training implants, remap Int/Mem, set a long list of Int/Mem skills, then each couple of months extract all the skills you just trained to cover the cost of PLEXing your account and a bit more.

I do not think this is sustainable - as injectors have been around longer, I expect more people will start copying the CODE. approach and they will be happy to sell the SP even if they only get 60% of the cost of the PLEX back after all expenses.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".

#20 - 2017-01-11 20:48:37 UTC
Depends. Some players are satisfied with an alpha account and have no need for Plex.

I know a player who made billions in trading with alpha account yet refuses to buy plex because he doesn't need it.

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