You seem to be envisioning a 10 man protection fleet facing a 10 man gatecamp. What you're actually going to be seeing is multiple 10 man gate camps on tons of gates shutting down most smaller group transport... with big 200+ man null fleets escorting their stuff through (with the gatecamps scattering as they come through)..
Im ok with this.
If NS is willing to field a 200+sub-cap fleet to escort its shipments, so be it.
They could do so already, if they wished.
Atleast it requires some effort then, rather than lol-cyno jumping through LS, denying content.
The rest of EVE can choose to setup its own sub-cap alts in LS to combat that convoy.
It shouldnt take long for innumerable corps to take a huge interest in engaging those NS fleets in LS:
A) For the sub-cap PvP
B) For the huge rewards of looting the convoys wealth.
C) A 200+man NS sub-cap escort may infact not be enough in the long run, and they would have to coordinate their shipments and fleets for periodic mass transits (with info leaking and scouts telegraphing it)
D) Each such shipment is like a Spanish Gold Galleon fleet returning to European markets from the New World.
E) Plus, there are return transports from HS-> NS, which NS will have far more difficulty defending, as they will have to fly to or from the HS border.
F) To spit in the eye of NS entities
G) Alt corps from competing NS entities to destroy assets of a rival NS entity
Do you see the picture?
LS will become a massive warzone almost overnight.
NS may be able to deal with NS cap fleets, but can it deal with a massive proliferation of sub-cap pirates in LS?
(Good post btw, you are clearly exploring the implications rationally.)