# Alliance tournement draw **URL:** \ **Category:** General Discussion\ **Created:** [September 1, 2020, 8:21pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211 "2020-09-01T20:21:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Merin\_Ryskin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/merin_ryskin/32/259354_2.png) [@Merin\_Ryskin](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Merin_Ryskin)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 11:33pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/43 "2020-09-01T23:33:46Z")
> [@Brewlar\_Kuvakei](#): > > They are being supported by devs, they are getting private server and node access alongside access to at ships. What does that have to do with anything? Scamming and lying and similar things are all part of normal EVE gameplay. CCP providing support to the tournament equivalent of professional wrestling because it’s good marketing for EVE is 100% legitimate. > They have ccp branding all over it, **which is against EULA**. {citation needed} ---
**Author:** ![Geo\_Eclipse\_Oksaras](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/geo_eclipse_oksaras/32/500781_2.png) [@Geo\_Eclipse\_Oksaras](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Geo_Eclipse_Oksaras)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 11:35pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/44 "2020-09-01T23:35:24Z")
Just another day in New Eden… Carry on ---
**Author:** ![Buoytender\_Bob](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/buoytender_bob/32/374377_2.png) [@Buoytender\_Bob](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Buoytender_Bob)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 11:37pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/45 "2020-09-01T23:37:47Z")
Based on past history of CCP, the student has finally surpassed the master. 🤔 ---
**Author:** ![Destiny\_Corrupted](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/destiny_corrupted/32/411527_2.png) [@Destiny\_Corrupted](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Destiny_Corrupted)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:10am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/46 "2020-09-02T02:10:46Z")
> [@Archer\_en\_Tilavine](#): > > > [@Foggy\_Bernstein](#): > > > > Instead of a word salad, why not show it with an equation, professor. Math doesn’t lie. But forum posters do. > > SUMMONING JUTSU 🖖👏✊:🤜👋🤝🙏🙌: PVP Fitting Genius Professor @Destiny_Corrupted ! She’ll math you the frigate up. Hi, math degree here. Here’s how I understand the process happened: - 8 draws were made - people realized there was a duplicate - draw #1 was replaced with an extra draw (#9) If this is the premise, then it is absolutely the case that the team with 2 entries ended up with an unfair advantage, and the reason for that is that **the odds of draws #1-8 were not affected by the removal of draw #1, because the draws happened before the removal.** I made a quick model: ![image](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/3X/5/0/50e2c1066285dd1e525035239beef867f69873d2.png) The trick is in calculating the total odds of being picked and not picked. For a team with only 1 entry, those odds are each 50% in a series of 8 draws. For a team with an extra ticket in the pool, the odds of being picked jump to 76.67%. Remember, eliminating a draw after all draws have been completed doesn’t affect the odds of those draws at the time they happened. The final draw, #9, was effectively an extra draw that boosted the odds of the teams with one entry each to above 50% (since there were 8 teams getting selected from a pool of 15). Another way of looking at this is that even if the team with 2 entries was only selected once, or wasn’t selected at all, it was still playing with the odds stacked in its favor. So this: > [@Merin\_Ryskin](#): > > Once the first ticket is removed and that draw excluded from the results the pool is now a correct random draw with the same odds as if it had started the day with no double ticket. …is wrong, because the exclusion was made **after** the draw took place according to its initial odds; getting to this specific combination of results had its own probability element. > [@Merin\_Ryskin](#): > > Picks 2-9 were a perfectly random draw of 8 tickets from a pool of 15 with each alliance having one ticket in the pool. …is wrong, because it discounts **all** of the possible combinations of results, and deals only with this specific outcome in isolation. Had it not been picked a second time, or not even picked once, the team with 2 entries was still operating at an advantage because it had 2 entries in the pile on every draw, when all other teams had 1. > [@Merin\_Ryskin](#): > > Immediately prior to the draw of pick 2, the first of the 8-pick sequence that counted, the pool had one ticket per alliance. It doesn’t matter if an alliance had 1 ticket or 2 tickets or 2000 tickets in the pool before pick 2 was drawn, the state of the pool starting from immediately prior to pick 2 was a fair 8-pick draw. It does matter, because the issue isn’t not having even odds for all teams during picks #2-9 on an individual basis, but the odds of a team with 2 entries getting picked at least once during a series of picks, compared to teams with only 1 entry. The existence of pick #9 is also contingent upon the team with 2 entries being chosen twice. So in this case, Merketmans is right. There’s just no way to make this fair aside from having a completely new drawing. ---
**Author:** ![Merin\_Ryskin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/merin_ryskin/32/259354_2.png) [@Merin\_Ryskin](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Merin_Ryskin)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:28am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/47 "2020-09-02T02:28:44Z")
> [@Destiny\_Corrupted](#): > > I made a quick model: You’re making a mistake here because you’re treating pick 9 as removed, not pick 1. Pick 1 is removed, at which point the draw going forward is now fair. If you removed pick 9 instead of pick 1 it would in fact be an unfair draw. > Remember, eliminating a draw after all draws have been completed doesn’t affect the odds of those draws at the time they happened. Exactly! Because pick #1 was removed the remaining 8 draws do not have their odds changed. And because those 8 draws were made from a pool containing one (and only one) of every alliance name their odds of success are completely independent of what happens with pick #1. > because it discounts **all** of the possible combinations of results Correct, because other combinations don’t matter. Whether or not the people doing the draw intended it to work that way picks 2-8 were a random draw. There was a “fair” pool of 15 names and 8 names were picked at random. Other hypothetical combinations don’t matter, in the sequence of events that actually happened a fair draw occurred. ---
**Author:** ![Daichi\_Yamato](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/daichi_yamato/32/252995_2.png) [@Daichi\_Yamato](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Daichi_Yamato)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/48 "2020-09-02T02:33:39Z")
> [@Foggy\_Bernstein](#): > > That’s a lot of words to justify why you didn’t immediately start over from scratch after you discovered the “mistake”. That would feel very unfair to those that were picked fairly. Mathematically the solution is sound. Once the first ticket is removed, every alliance has an equal chance of being picked. Or think of it this way: If they realised their mistake before the draw they would have ‘picked’ the offending ticket out and discarded it. It is essentially the same action. @Destiny_Corrupted Your math seems to exclude that the offending ticket was the first one picked. The hat was essentially re-set after the first pick. I can’t be arsed to punch out the numbers but the theory behind it is this: _Odds of being picked **given** the 1st ticket is one of the duplicates._ That should check out. ---
**Author:** ![Merin\_Ryskin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/merin_ryskin/32/259354_2.png) [@Merin\_Ryskin](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Merin_Ryskin)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:36am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/49 "2020-09-02T02:36:27Z")
> [@Daichi\_Yamato](#): > > The hat was essentially re-set after the first pick. Exactly. They didn’t know it at the time, but it was still reset. And a random draw does not require the person doing the drawing to be aware of their actions. ---
**Author:** ![Geo\_Eclipse\_Oksaras](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/geo_eclipse_oksaras/32/500781_2.png) [@Geo\_Eclipse\_Oksaras](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Geo_Eclipse_Oksaras)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:37am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/50 "2020-09-02T02:37:47Z")
I gotta go with @Merin_Ryskin on this one. Sorry @Destiny_Corrupted. Since that ridiculously long alliance had the first ticket picked, it basically resetted the drawing to be fair from then on. ---
**Author:** ![Daichi\_Yamato](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/daichi_yamato/32/252995_2.png) [@Daichi\_Yamato](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Daichi_Yamato)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:38am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/51 "2020-09-02T02:38:52Z")
The lucky buggers! 😅 ---
**Author:** ![Merin\_Ryskin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/merin_ryskin/32/259354_2.png) [@Merin\_Ryskin](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Merin_Ryskin)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:45am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/52 "2020-09-02T02:45:55Z")
To be fair, there is an element of trust in believing them that they accepted the draw as-is because it is mathematically a random draw (and would have accepted it no matter what the results were), not because it contained a result they liked and they would have used the mistake as an excuse to re-draw if it hadn’t. But it was indisputably a random draw. ---
**Author:** ![Scarlet\_Starfire](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/scarlet_starfire/32/244125_2.png) [@Scarlet\_Starfire](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Scarlet_Starfire)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 2:48am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/53 "2020-09-02T02:48:38Z")
> [@Merketmans\_Junior\_Trucker](#): > > Nope they had two tickets- one more than any one else- that gives then double chance of a place, in this case first and 6th if only one ticket is valid then the other is forfeit- and that is the organisers response- However they still had two tickets, reducing the odds for all the other allainces By removing One from the results doesnt change the fact that during the draw the other alliances were massively disadvantaged- and by simply removing the first place result dosent change the fact that to get 6th 420MG had two bites at the cherry- its not rocket science -the draw was flawed- do the right thing and redraw with the right number of alliances in the hat It seems the organisers made the error by putting the two tickets in because the name took up two lines, which I guess the person doing the ticket mistakenly took for another team. However, as one of the tickets was drawn first and discarded. They then had only 1 ticket entered. As the mistake was with the organisers they can’t really punish the team. What the organisers did was fair enough under the circumstances. As for the banning from the channel, that I can’t say. ---
**Author:** ![Destiny\_Corrupted](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/destiny_corrupted/32/411527_2.png) [@Destiny\_Corrupted](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Destiny_Corrupted)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:05am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/54 "2020-09-02T05:05:00Z")
> [@Merin\_Ryskin](#): > > Exactly! Because pick #1 was removed the remaining 8 draws do not have their odds changed. And because those 8 draws were made from a pool containing one (and only one) of every alliance name their odds of success are completely independent of what happens with pick #1. > [@Daichi\_Yamato](#): > > That would feel very unfair to those that were picked fairly. > > Mathematically the solution is sound. Once the first ticket is removed, every alliance has an equal chance of being picked. Picks #2-9, in isolation, are fine. After all, doing the contest over again would necessarily entail drawing 8 times out of a pool of 15 unique possibilities. The issue is that picks #2-9 didn’t _happen_ in isolation. Pick #1 itself _stirred the pot_ so to speak. What invalidated the first draw was the fact that that specific team was drawn again. Had it _not_ been drawn, the initial draw would’ve been accepted, but would’ve still been invalid. I get what you’re trying to say, and indeed on draws #2-9, all teams have a 53.33% chance of making it in. The problem is that with the initial setup, the entire experiment is polluted. Remember the butterfly effect? For example, we don’t know what kind of decision they would’ve made if one of the two picks wouldn’t have been the first pick. That’s why I ran the numbers, and provided the overarching odds of each team getting drawn in aggregate. If I were in one of the teams that lost, I would absolutely demand that the experiment be redone. ---
**Author:** ![Brewlar\_Kuvakei](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/brewlar_kuvakei/32/422694_2.png) [@Brewlar\_Kuvakei](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Brewlar_Kuvakei)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 7:56am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/55 "2020-09-02T07:56:06Z")
They had eve and ccp logo’s behind them in the draw. If you think this AT will be good for the game you are very wrong. A lot of people have a good reason to make sure it is now not like every other competitive experience in eve it is rigged. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/3X/4/1/41ec4921cbaca7a6f9ea556e7cc20018461eae5e.png) [@system](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2020, 8:07am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/alliance-tournement-draw/264211/57 "2020-12-01T08:07:15Z")
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