# How exactly is the success chance of upgrading a blueprint calculated? **URL:** \ **Category:** Science & Industry\ **Created:** [March 9, 2026, 8:53pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982 "2026-03-09T20:53:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 8:53pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/1 "2026-03-09T20:53:14Z")
![изображение_2026-03-10_015013144](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/6/9/6/696a978d0cdaa39098dbc872c34f95b3e3ea750e.png) Or, like with the daily quest rewards, do the numbers only increase occasionally? It’s not entirely clear why a scientist with several million SP in science should suffer such catastrophic failures when improving copies. He’s throwing dice, reading tarot cards, reading coffee grounds—what kind of idea is that? Upgrading blueprints is unprofitable. A hundred million to get an upgraded battleship blueprint, or more. 40 million for an upgraded frigate blueprint? This isn’t an isolated incident; I’ve already wasted two billion on three dozen upgraded blueprints. ---
**Author:** ![Namdor](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/namdor/32/396179_2.png) [@Namdor](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Namdor)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 9:47pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/2 "2026-03-09T21:47:38Z")
First of all, random is random. Sorry about your luck. > [@Raes\_Ongrar](#): > > Upgrading blueprints is unprofitable. It’s not. You can tell this is true by the fact that the market is consistently supplied with tech 2 goods. > A hundred million to get an upgraded battleship blueprint, or more. Would like to see how you’re arriving at values like that. Decryptorless Babaroga jobs?? ---
**Author:** ![Mitsu\_Miu](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/mitsu_miu/32/414469_2.png) [@Mitsu\_Miu](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Mitsu_Miu)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 1:03pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/3 "2026-03-10T13:03:46Z")
Probability of getting this exact result is about **0.0125933** (1.26%), so it does not happen very often. ---
**Author:** ![Elathy\_Maricadie](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/elathy_maricadie/32/379496_2.png) [@Elathy\_Maricadie](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Elathy_Maricadie)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 3:55pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/4 "2026-03-10T15:55:30Z")
Are you using the appropriate _Generic Decryptors_ ? Yes, they add a bit of cost of invention but can significantly improve your odds of success and give minor bonus/penalty ME/TE levels. ---
**Author:** ![Meridan\_Night](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/meridan_night/32/488304_2.png) [@Meridan\_Night](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Meridan_Night)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 7:27pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/5 "2026-03-10T19:27:32Z")
> [@Raes\_Ongrar](#): > > Upgrading blueprints is unprofitable. A hundred million to get an upgraded battleship blueprint, or more. 40 million for an upgraded frigate blueprint? This isn’t an isolated incident; I’ve already wasted two billion on three dozen upgraded blueprints. Those are not my numbers when I run invention. The cost is much much lower than that. ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2026, 5:05am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/6 "2026-03-14T05:05:52Z")
> [@Elathy\_Maricadie](#): > > Are you using the appropriate _Generic Decryptors_ ? Yes, they add a bit of cost of invention but can significantly improve your odds of success and give minor bonus/penalty ME/TE levels. I use accelerant descriptors. Others that increase the chance by 90% have a market value of over 3 million. ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2026, 5:09am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/7 "2026-03-14T05:09:01Z")
Definitely not often, like today, for example. Only a hundred million minus, considering the materials. ![изображение_2026-03-14_100700234](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/3/8/4/384d2b4e5ad61dbde43b7c2c0c3f53d934c2403f.png) ![изображение_2026-03-14_100735894](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/f/9/8/f98b04e9b980c77e5509354353f53a87dc274bf6.png) ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 4:44am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/8 "2026-04-02T04:44:32Z")
![image](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/c/0/f/c0fde2de557de36c6c2b718e157a79057dcfceed.jpeg) 50%??? ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 4:51am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/9 "2026-04-02T04:51:58Z")
No, seriously, how are we supposed to imagine this? Here’s a scientist, he’s been studying science for a year. He knows the physics of any substance, any encryption, can build hundreds of ships, knows every science in the universe. And he takes a T1 blueprint, closes his eyes, and draws it by hand, or what? He gets a monkey to write the numbers for him. And then he opens his eyes, the monkey has messed up the blueprint, and this great scientist says - wow, bad luck!! Science isn’t omnipotent; monkeys have been able to design 10 billion such ships, identical down to the last nut, but I - no luck! That’s how we make T2 blueprints. And what about unicorns and elves? We’re so looking forward to them! ---
**Author:** ![Meridan\_Night](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/meridan_night/32/488304_2.png) [@Meridan\_Night](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Meridan_Night)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 7:45am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/10 "2026-04-02T07:45:48Z")
You’re not showing us the numbers of your successful runs. ---
**Author:** ![DeMichael\_Crimson](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/demichael_crimson/32/514115_2.png) [@DeMichael\_Crimson](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/DeMichael_Crimson)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2026, 1:57am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/11 "2026-04-06T01:57:33Z")
What are your skill levels for invention? Having max skill levels for encryption methods and science skills will give a better chance of invention. ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 11:03am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/12 "2026-04-07T11:03:02Z")
True, that would be too labor-intensive. In my opinion, the actual chance is 20% for ships and 30% for modules. Despite what’s written, something else is being said. And in my opinion, nothing can explain how, with a 50%+ chance, only one out of 15 processes succeeds. ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 11:06am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/13 "2026-04-07T11:06:07Z")
Actually, the skill descriptions state that skill level affects speed, not success chance. Success chance is affected only by the descriptor used, not the skill level. ---
**Author:** ![Meridan\_Night](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/meridan_night/32/488304_2.png) [@Meridan\_Night](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Meridan_Night)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 11:27am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/14 "2026-04-07T11:27:11Z")
> [@Raes\_Ongrar](#): > > Success chance is affected only by the descriptor used, not the skill level. If you hover your cursor over the success % in the industry job window, it will show you base success rate, and the skills that affect that rate. ---
**Author:** ![Namdor](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/namdor/32/396179_2.png) [@Namdor](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Namdor)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 12:14pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/15 "2026-04-07T12:14:52Z")
> [@Raes\_Ongrar](#): > > Success chance is affected only by the descriptor used, not the skill level. ![image](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/a/2/a/a2af970176dce5ffd0c632d0ba6b9db7c4c43e9c.png) Bozo says what? ---
**Author:** ![DeMichael\_Crimson](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/demichael_crimson/32/514115_2.png) [@DeMichael\_Crimson](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/DeMichael_Crimson)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 12:51pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/16 "2026-04-07T12:51:49Z")
Yeah, you can’t just go by the description… Main thing I’ve learned in all my years of playing is that CCP has a bad habit of hiding info… Anyway, one Encryption Methods skill and two Science skills need to be trained to do invention… The effect of those skills for successful invention is 3.333% increase per Science skill level and 2.5% increase per Encryption Methods skill level… Training the Encryption Methods skills to level 3 and the Science skills to level 4 will give a good chance of invention success… However for best results, those skills should be max trained… More info here: > **[Invention - EVE University Wiki](https://wiki.eveuniversity.org/Invention)** ---
**Author:** ![Eloken\_Toralen](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/eloken_toralen/32/401714_2.png) [@Eloken\_Toralen](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Eloken_Toralen)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 1:28pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/17 "2026-04-07T13:28:03Z")
This thread should be requisite reading for anyone new to the game who thinks they are going to be the next military industrial complex. ---
**Author:** ![Raes\_Ongrar](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/raes_ongrar/32/492504_2.png) [@Raes\_Ongrar](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Raes_Ongrar)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2026, 4:57am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/18 "2026-04-09T04:57:13Z")
Indeed, our translation simply doesn’t have the corresponding text. It only mentions speed in the skill descriptions. And when I asked in the help chat, no one knew about skills that improve chance. Yes, all my scientists have 2-3-4, so that must be the problem. ---
**Author:** ![DeMichael\_Crimson](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/demichael_crimson/32/514115_2.png) [@DeMichael\_Crimson](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/DeMichael_Crimson)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2026, 5:11am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/19 "2026-04-09T05:11:59Z")
Yeah, training their Encryption and corresponding Science skills to level 5 will help a lot… Also using Attainment Decryptor’s will give a big improvement on invention success rate… ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/3X/4/1/41ec4921cbaca7a6f9ea556e7cc20018461eae5e.png) [@system](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2026, 5:12am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/how-exactly-is-the-success-chance-of-upgrading-a-blueprint-calculated/507982/20 "2026-07-08T05:12:04Z")
This topic was automatically closed 90 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.