# The Rise and Fall in Bitcoin Value **URL:** \ **Category:** Out Of Pod Experience\ **Created:** [January 18, 2022, 1:41pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290 "2022-01-18T13:41:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 107
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2165 "2022-11-30T19:59:48Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > Satoshi and . . . the reasons why he created BTC Keep in mind, Satoshi is a fictional person. It is possible that their stated goals were fictional as well. ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 8:02pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2166 "2022-11-30T20:02:51Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > Keep in mind, Satoshi is a fictional person. It is possible that their stated goals were fictional as well. I believe his early forum posts are recorded, also cypherpunks has been a movement which started in the late 70s, they demand privacy and many of them have respect for satoshi. ---
**Author:** ![Karak\_Terrel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/karak_terrel/32/373453_2.png) [@Karak\_Terrel](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Karak_Terrel)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 8:46pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2167 "2022-11-30T20:46:59Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > It reminds me of how everybody used to trust Google with their data. Google builds on the internet, it isn’t the internet. It’s also completely avoidable. > [@Aaron](#): > > when/if the economy goes bad all of these people will attempt to cash out and get back their fiat money. That is the current situation, where Bitcoin is regarded by the big money bags as a high risk investment. So the moment the market look sketchy they dump it, hence the volatility. That will change as the market cap increases and people learn why they can trust Bitcoin more than any other currency. > [@Aaron](#): > > I haven’t committed to this view, I’d like to explore it further. Lets say it is the worlds reserve and many countries buy and hold it I think the way it will happen is that we still have local credit based currencies like today, but the global exchange between currencies and countries uses Bitcoin as an exchange medium. We already start to see this happening with certain corporations utilizing Bitcoin for global transfer and on both ends it gets flipped into the respective currencies. The exchanges will probably be the lightning service providers that maintain a channel for a specific currency. This way you don’t actually need to hold dollars to buy something in the states. Or if you go on vacation you just scan the lightning invoice and you see the price in your currency, while the shop keeper receives in their currency, but the transfer is all Bitcoin. No need to change currency anymore. At least that is how I see it, the future will tell, and I’m sure there will be a lot of developments we don’t know yet. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 10:40pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2168 "2022-11-30T22:40:53Z")
I can’t tell if you bitcoiners realize this, but normal people cannot use bitcoin as a currency. If bitcoin ever becomes useful, it is going to be something built on top of bitcoin that they have to use. And then they will be right back where they are now, having to trust some system. ---
**Author:** ![stefnia\_Freir](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/stefnia_freir/32/390048_2.png) [@stefnia\_Freir](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/stefnia_Freir)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 10:59pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2169 "2022-11-30T22:59:21Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > But this is the only argument you have No, but it is enough by itself to prove that you are saying stupid things and won’t bother fix your mistake. As in : you don’t care about reality, only about promoting your opinion. As in : you don’t care about facts, only pretend. I don’t need another argument when one is enough to prove you are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 11:12pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2170 "2022-11-30T23:12:10Z")
> [@stefnia\_Freir](#): > > As in : you don’t care about reality, only about promoting your opinion. That doesn’t fit my responses, I try to consider as much as I can and am happy to revise my opinions as demonstrated in my posts. If you saying BTC itself is a scam then you are on your own with that idea, if you haven’t noticed nobody supports that idea except you which is why you don’t post any articles or video’s where the focus is your idea. I can see that most of the people posting on both sides of the argument simply seek the truth, You seem to just want to impose your view. You haven’t even got any analysis or reasoning as to how you arrived at your idea. you’re just like “BTC is a scam!! believe me!!!” ---
**Author:** ![stefnia\_Freir](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/stefnia_freir/32/390048_2.png) [@stefnia\_Freir](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/stefnia_Freir)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2022, 11:36pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2171 "2022-11-30T23:36:45Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > That doesn’t fit my responses Yes it does. You don’t even look at the arguments I give. When I have a simple argument as the one I just gave, you just ignore it and try to focus on something else. Then you make personal attacks. And claim you talk about facts - while the facts actually prove you wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 1:14am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2172 "2022-12-01T01:14:19Z")
> [@stefnia\_Freir](#): > > You don’t even look at the arguments I give. You describe your own attitude, you’ve not typed a single word about cypherpunks or acknowledged their existence. You ignore too much which may work fine for you but don’t automatically expect others to follow in that delusion and reach a conclusion, most people aim to have a balanced view which is achieved by reviewing evidence, the opinions of specialists, and the actions of key people. Satoshi hasn’t done anything with his invention for a long time, so we have to study his in-action and consider the reasons why. without this analysis you will never arrive at any truth. > [@Karak\_Terrel](#): > > I think the way it will happen is that we still have local credit based currencies like today, but the global exchange between currencies and countries uses Bitcoin as an exchange medium. We already start to see this happening with certain corporations utilizing Bitcoin for global transfer and on both ends it gets flipped into the respective currencies. I think I might be able to visualise this, so, country A buys BTC that will instantly be taken off the market and sent to country A where the BTC will be put back on the market, Now, some of my BTC transactions did take up to a couple of hours to get enough confirmations, So, can we assume that for any transaction like the one you describe is the BTC is off the market? And what would you say is the typical duration the BTC would be off the market? If so would millions upon millions of transactions all happening at the same time and taking BTC off the market have an effect on the value of BTC? If the tokens (BTC) are in use transmitting value then I think the BTC value could be based on the current congestion of the Tokens/Network at any given time is this a reasonable assessment? or is there any flaw in the logic? So put another way, If lots of BTC had the status of “In Transit” to whatever destination would this be enough to affect the value, and does BTC have a numerical value for “Current congestion” or “Current % of BTC in Use” ? I am still struggling to see where the value of BTC comes from due to recent events so bear with me. Another quick point, could it be that the BTC miners were tricked into mining it prematurely? It turns out that many of them can’t afford to mine due to the low BTC value, obviously they were depending on the value of BTC to pay their bills, since much of the value seems to be made up of investors holding it, it does look like they were mining to fill the demand for investors desire to make money and not the demand for genuine usage. ---
**Author:** ![Karak\_Terrel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/karak_terrel/32/373453_2.png) [@Karak\_Terrel](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Karak_Terrel)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 6:39am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2173 "2022-12-01T06:39:10Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > I can’t tell if you bitcoiners realize this, but normal people cannot use bitcoin as a currency. If bitcoin ever becomes useful, it is going to be something built on top of bitcoin that they have to use. That is what I just wrote in the post above yours > [@Xeux](#): > > And then they will be right back where they are now, having to trust some system. That is saying like because there is Google and Facebook, the internet did not improve the ability of people to freely communicate and share information and we are right back to easy to censor physical letters and the printing press. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 6:43am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2174 "2022-12-01T06:43:26Z")
We are. ---
**Author:** ![Karak\_Terrel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/karak_terrel/32/373453_2.png) [@Karak\_Terrel](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Karak_Terrel)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 6:48am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2175 "2022-12-01T06:48:44Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > what would you say is the typical duration the BTC would be off the market? I have absolutely no idea. Just that there would have to be coins locked in the mint as backing and obviously the lightning service providers need some in the channel. All of that would kind of work like a market. I’m not sure what exchanges would even look like. > [@Aaron](#): > > If the tokens (BTC) are in use transmitting value then I think the BTC value could be based on the current congestion of the Tokens/Network at any given time is this a reasonable assessment? I see it’s role more as a reserve currency that is used for transfer and to back local currencies. It’s hard to say how much that would increase the value. > [@Aaron](#): > > I am still struggling to see where the value of BTC comes from due to recent events so bear with me. Just remember that in the last bear market we crashed to $3k, not we crashed to $15k 🙂 > [@Aaron](#): > > Another quick point, could it be that the BTC miners were tricked into mining it prematurely? It turns out that many of them can’t afford to mine due to the low BTC value, obviously they were depending on the value of BTC to pay their bills, since much of the value seems to be made up of investors holding it, it does look like they were mining to fill the demand for investors desire to make money and not the demand for genuine usage. Well it doesn’t actually matter what their motivation is. In a zoomed out view, there are ~900 BTC to gain in a lottery like system for securing the network. Someone will do that work. Miners who over-leverage themselves or mine at a loss will eventually have to give up and then the remaining miners will get the share they took. Mining is really never a problem, it’s just a really competitive market for the miners. ---
**Author:** ![Karak\_Terrel](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/karak_terrel/32/373453_2.png) [@Karak\_Terrel](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Karak_Terrel)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 7:01am UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2176 "2022-12-01T07:01:06Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > We are. Yeah I disagree. You don’t have to use Google and Facebook, they are completely avoidable. They don’t destroy the value that we can communicate with everyone instantly. I don’t have to ask anyone if I want to run a webserver on my own and provide services to the whole world on a neutral data layer. I don’t use Googles or Apples proprietary services. I don’t have their proprietary software on my phone. They are not a necessity. Just because most people sacrifice their privacy for a minor convenience doesn’t mean I have to, I can still enjoy all the benefits of the internet, ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 1:00pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2177 "2022-12-01T13:00:18Z")
[![](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/2/3/0/23054391e10672635adc77d16776ece683516085.jpeg "Sam Bankman-Fried Interviewed Live About the Collapse of FTX") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyoGdwVIwWw) ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 1:07pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2178 "2022-12-01T13:07:49Z")
He seems nice. ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 1:39pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2179 "2022-12-01T13:39:24Z")
He’s a bullshitter. I see a self-entitled young person who has no experience of real life, he’s very very bad at logistics. “Hey I own one of the biggest companies in the US and I have no idea what’s going on in it” So there was no sign off by a senior on risky/big trades ever?? don’t make me laugh. If any trade over a certain value in my business was to occur i would 100% know about it, but that’s just me I know many others don’t have this work ethic. SBF was the tea boy in FTX and Alameda and knew nothing about anything, it’s okay we believe you. ---
**Author:** ![Nana\_Skalski](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/nana_skalski/32/489985_2.png) [@Nana\_Skalski](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Nana_Skalski)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 7:45pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2180 "2022-12-01T19:45:20Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > He’s a bullshitter That is his profession now. [![](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/4X/6/7/b/67b5c1bd30793cc85d2ac693fafcdb7bd6d30b7f.jpeg "Sam Bankman-Fried is 'delusional' and needs to be prosecuted, says Michael Novogratz") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PriccmRVc6g) You can be a nice guy, but you can also scam people. There was a person once who did exactly this. Netflix even showed a movie about him _The Polka King_: > **[Jan Lewan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Lewan)** > > Jan Lewandowski (.mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}Polish pronunciation: \[lɛvanˈdɔfskʲi\]; born 15 August 1941 in Bydgoszcz, Poland) known professionally as Jan Lewan, is a Polish-American songwriter and polka band leader. The Grammy Award-nominated musician was convicted of fraud charges in 2004, for financial crimes described by Th Le... ---
**Author:** ![stefnia\_Freir](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/stefnia_freir/32/390048_2.png) [@stefnia\_Freir](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/stefnia_Freir)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 10:54pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2181 "2022-12-01T22:54:57Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > So there was no sign off by a senior on risky/big trades ever?? You mean, like the whole BTC ? Who could have guessed !!! ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 11:10pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2182 "2022-12-01T23:10:39Z")
> **[How Many People Own, Hold & Use Bitcoins? (2022)](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/)** > > This is a complete overview of Bitcoin user metrics. Learn how many people use and hold Bitcoin from this in-depth post. Some interesting stats on here from 2021. It seems there were 400,000 BTC users in 2021 and 53 million traders and 106 million people owned BTC. I don’t think vast amounts of value can be generated from such a small amount of genuine users, so it makes me wonder what purpose those 53 million traders are serving? So it is very clear that the world is more interested in trading BTC than they are using it which I think might be a recipe for disaster. If the traders are aware the user level of 400k might stay stagnant for many years then what is the justification for there being so many traders? I’m starting to think the world has the wrong impression of BTC, The value can only be in billions of people using it for retail which is what takes the BTC off the market for a short time. in 2021 there were 270k daily transactions which I don’t believe is enough to support such a heavy level of trade. So my view is that if there is any investment in BTC it will be in marketing it to retailers first of all and ensuring they get a solid understanding of it’s privacy and value transfer features, as other people have mentioned app design is also a good investment where the end result is tapping a card or device on a payment machine. Crypto exchanges will have to work together and support each other, and guarantee that they can cover the fiat value of any token presented to them, obviously the actual fiat will need to be transferred physically to that countries world bank and stored outside of the BTC system. Personally I think it will be Coinbase as the one remaining exchange, the others seem to be investing in other people who are investing in other people. I strongly believe the value for an exchange is holding the BTC and then “leasing” the BTC just for the duration of the transactions and then charge a fee for that alone. So Coinbase will have to have branches in all countries and make agreements with local banks whoever does this the best will be the top crypto exchange. The trading in BTC for profit days might be close to an end, ultimately those 53 million traders will realise it is a pointless exercise trying to build value from other traders holding and then getting some poor person build upon a fake value with their life savings, this formula is shitty and low down and will never work. We must be patient with BTC and let the genuine user value go up naturally without trying to push or manipulate it for profit means this is not what the BTC system was for and I am starting to see this as true. TLDR: - 400k genuine BTC users can’t financially support 53 million traders all attempting to make profit - If the amount of genuine BTC retail users increases to billions then we will see the true value and power of the BTC network, there would then be a justification for 53 million traders trying to make profit. - I am excited about the amount of genuine BTC users growing and the value it might bring. ---
**Author:** ![stefnia\_Freir](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/stefnia_freir/32/390048_2.png) [@stefnia\_Freir](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/stefnia_Freir)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 11:29pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2183 "2022-12-01T23:29:42Z")
> [@Aaron](#): > > So it is very clear that the world is more interested in trading BTC than they are using it which I think might be a recipe for disaster. Which is literally why I told you it’s a ponzi. I’m not saying the technology is a scam : It’s just bad. But the requirement for BTC to work, is to find people investing in it. Also, if I talk about ponzi, it means the investment part. People are (were ?) interested in the _investment_ BTC : this interest was the same they could have for any ponzi ( as is, they gain money only when more people are investing). ---
**Author:** ![Aaron](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aaron/32/379788_2.png) [@Aaron](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aaron)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 11:41pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290/2184 "2022-12-01T23:41:12Z")
> [@stefnia\_Freir](#): > > Which is literally why I told you it’s a ponzi. That’s a fair point, I just like to acknowledge the 2 sides of the coin where trading is an action taken by people, the 53 million traders are making the decision to do it on their own because they were promised profits. > [@stefnia\_Freir](#): > > I’m not saying the technology is a scam : It’s just bad. I think it’s beautiful, I’m trying to visualise billions of transactions flowing through a computer system that spans the globe, privately and securely. [Previous page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290.md?page=106) [Next page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-rise-and-fall-in-bitcoin-value/346290.md?page=108)