# The summer has passed, but Eve has not returned to 40,000 concurent users **URL:** \ **Category:** General Discussion\ **Created:** [February 22, 2019, 8:59pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853 "2019-02-22T20:59:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Elena\_Laskova](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/elena_laskova/32/11436_2.png) [@Elena\_Laskova](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Elena_Laskova)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 3:23pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/182 "2019-02-26T15:23:52Z")
> [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > 98% of noobs who do not experience PvP quit within 4 months. This is an interesting statistic, but it doesn’t provide any support for at least one “solution” I’ve seen suggested in these forums: change the game so non-beginners of all kinds are even more likely to gank newbies. Correlations are a good source of hypotheses to test - and the results of such tests sometimes identify causes and/or significant factors. OTOH addressing the statistic in the most direct way, which feels (incorrectly) like applying Occam’s Razor, frequently create larger problems that the one the statistic reflects ---
**Author:** ![Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/ghost_o_mo/32/376789_2.png) [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Ghost_O_Mo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 3:25pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/183 "2019-02-26T15:25:17Z")
1. I think you’re the one imposing your opinion contrary to the indication of the data. The assertions I made earlier are consistent with the data and their presentation. 2. A 98% correlation is just correlation, but I’ve never encountered a correlation that high in my professional career which does not contain a clear (and usually obvious) causation. From a statistical standpoint, this is as black and white as it gets. At this level of correlation, I would feel comfortable that causation should be relatively easy to determine. 3. even considering that, I still only recommended an environmental adjustment to reduce the incidence of a scenario that is known to correlate with “quitting” at a 98% rate. This is still appropriate even if I have no idea why. This is not only proper, but an obvious use of this statistic. Failure to respond to this statistic ina similar manner would strike me as silly to the point of negligent. ---
**Author:** ![Anderson\_Geten](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/anderson_geten/32/390041_2.png) [@Anderson\_Geten](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Anderson_Geten)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 3:37pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/184 "2019-02-26T15:37:00Z")
> [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > The assertions I made earlier are consistent with the data and their presentation. Your _assumptions_ are not. They are just your opinion that you want to pass as “fact” while it’s not fact, it’s just “assumption” that fit your mind. It’s dishonest and in total opposition to making statistical analysis. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > A 98% correlation is just correlation, but I’ve never encountered a correlation that high in my professional career which does not contain a clear (and usually obvious) causation. yes you did. Just right now. Because a correlation is not single-way : A and B are correlated also means B and A are correlated. So if you assume there is a causation from A to B, then there is also a causation from B to A. And since A and B are not equals, you can’t have both causations at the same time. So there is a correlation from B to A of 98% that can’t be a causation. And even your (lack of ) experience does not mean you are right. Just because there is a 99.999% correlation does not mean there is a causation. That’s what you don’t get, doing it this way is _wrong_ intrinsically, and saying otherwise just shows you lack scientific education. A correlation is NEVER a causation (unless proven so). Assuming a correlation is a causation, as a knowledgeable basis, is ALWAYS an scientific failure. ---
**Author:** ![Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/ghost_o_mo/32/376789_2.png) [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Ghost_O_Mo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 3:44pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/185 "2019-02-26T15:44:15Z")
Your arrogance is as remarkable as your hypocricy. I’m implying inaction at this level of correlation is deeply silly. My mathematics education is firm enough for me to say this in confidence regardless of your vitriolic response. Statistics, as a field, would be useless if we were incapable of taking action on 98% correlations. You are refusing to see that which is implied so strongly because you hate the idea of noobs being pvp’ed. The correct course of action in this instance is to follow the correlation and continue to monitor (which is how we address the 2% absence of correlation). Causation doesn’t even matter. We don’t need to know why… we know the scenario and we can avoid it entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Anderson\_Geten](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/anderson_geten/32/390041_2.png) [@Anderson\_Geten](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Anderson_Geten)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 3:58pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/186 "2019-02-26T15:58:45Z")
> [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > Your arrogance is as remarkable as your hypocricy. Your ignorance is as remarkable as your lack of self conscience. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > I’m implying inaction at this level of correlation is deeply silly. I’m teaching you assuming causation at any level of correlation is a mistake. watch [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUQSMFGBDo), it’s for children maybe you can understand it. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > My mathematics education is firm enough for me to say this in confidence regardless of your vitriolic response. You have no scientific education. That’s one of the first things you learn when you do scientific work : this behavior of yours leads to being wrong 100% of the time. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > Statistics, as a field, would be useless if we were incapable of taking action on 98% correlations. Statistics are in the eye of the beholder. And that’s why people know that statistics are actually useless. And that’s why scientific papers relies on actual experience and not statistical data. Watch the video, CCP explains why it’s useless. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > Causation doesn’t even matter. We don’t need to know why… we know the scenario and we can avoid it entirely. You know NOTHING. At all. You want to be right so much that you accept to be wrong. You hypocrisy is so strong that you can’t even realize that you want things to be worst even for you or Eve. You can affirm a carrot is a tomato as long as you want. You are only showing your lack of common sense and ability to make a correct discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Nana\_Skalski](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/nana_skalski/32/489985_2.png) [@Nana\_Skalski](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Nana_Skalski)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 4:17pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/187 "2019-02-26T16:17:54Z")
> [@Anderson\_Geten](#): > > And that’s why scientific papers relies on actual experience and not statistical data. Statistics, averages… > **[When U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages](https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/when-u-s-air-force-discovered-the-flaw-of-averages/article_e3231734-e5da-5bf5-9496-a34e52d60bd9.html)** > > In the early 1950s, a young lieutenant realized the fatal flaw in the cockpit design of U.S. air force jets. Todd Rose explains in an excerpt from his book, The End of Average. Good article to read. ---
**Author:** ![Anderson\_Geten](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/anderson_geten/32/390041_2.png) [@Anderson\_Geten](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Anderson_Geten)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 4:28pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/188 "2019-02-26T16:28:56Z")
Though it is interesting, it is completely unrelated to the topic. In this example, the correlation between aircraft gun impact position and need for plate (aka survivor bias) would be more on point. ---
**Author:** ![Nana\_Skalski](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/nana_skalski/32/489985_2.png) [@Nana\_Skalski](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Nana_Skalski)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 4:31pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/189 "2019-02-26T16:31:45Z")
I think it shows how much people can be wrong if they believe that some archetypical PvP or PvE player exists, and his normal, average behaviors are able to be exploited, then building games around those types. And then why we have constantly dropping numbers. Makes you think. 🤔 ---
**Author:** ![Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/ghost_o_mo/32/376789_2.png) [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Ghost_O_Mo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 6:11pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/190 "2019-02-26T18:11:28Z")
I find it fascinating that you claim a scientific mind but reject statistics… Which is the very discipline by which the rigor of any study is judged. ---
**Author:** ![Anderson\_Geten](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/anderson_geten/32/390041_2.png) [@Anderson\_Geten](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Anderson_Geten)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 6:17pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/191 "2019-02-26T18:17:18Z")
Just look at the video I linked for you. ( [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUQSMFGBDo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUQSMFGBDo) ) You’d be amazed to how wrong you actually are. ---
**Author:** ![Mimi\_LSG](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/mimi_lsg/32/140151_2.png) [@Mimi\_LSG](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Mimi_LSG)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 6:40pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/192 "2019-02-26T18:40:37Z")
One of basic rules in MMO are: you must have separated PVP and PVE areas. CCP tried to cheat and is constantly in trouble 😂 ---
**Author:** ![Nana\_Skalski](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/nana_skalski/32/489985_2.png) [@Nana\_Skalski](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Nana_Skalski)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 6:45pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/193 "2019-02-26T18:45:57Z")
There is also something like “lurking variable” 🤨 ---
**Author:** ![Daichi\_Yamato](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/daichi_yamato/32/252995_2.png) [@Daichi\_Yamato](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Daichi_Yamato)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:13pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/194 "2019-02-26T19:13:45Z")
Wait, so now the argument is gathering and analysing data is useless? Sure it is, now that the data doesn’t suit your narrative. ---
**Author:** ![Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/ghost_o_mo/32/376789_2.png) [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Ghost_O_Mo)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:21pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/195 "2019-02-26T19:21:50Z")
Statistics itself is irrelevant, which makes data irrelevant. Causation can only be determined through the use of emotion. Correlational evidence should be seen as useless. ---
**Author:** ![Daichi\_Yamato](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/daichi_yamato/32/252995_2.png) [@Daichi\_Yamato](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Daichi_Yamato)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:27pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/196 "2019-02-26T19:27:56Z")
■■■■ global warming right? ---
**Author:** ![Aedaxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aedaxus/32/393915_2.png) [@Aedaxus](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aedaxus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:29pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/197 "2019-02-26T19:29:36Z")
> [@gnshadowninja](#): > > Still waiting for the massive influx since the fix The wardec halt was used to stop people leaving. Let me tell you the fairytale of McLoudMouth FightClubber and Helpy Carebear. A long time ago in a galaxy far far away McLoudMouth FightClubber rode on his bike. In his “I can do wut I wont!” attitude he drives over a sharp object. More and more air inside the tire, totally fed up with his abuse, leaves the tire. Driving becomes difficult. But then… out of nowhere, Helpy Carebear comes to help you. Helpy Carebear fixes the hole in the tire. McLoudMouth FightClubber, being all smug, says “Dude, you were going to fix the retention of air in the tire! What you did doesn’t really make the air come in, now does it?”. McLoudMouth FightClubber shouts angry words only cool people say and flails his arms wildly. A crowd gathers wondering what is going on. Helpy Carebear asks “The tire is patched but needs more air now. Will everyone help blow some in?”. The crowd, disgusted by McLoudMouth FightClubber’s attitude shake their head and walk off. McLoudMouth FightClubber rages and stomps his feet saying “You Carebears are ruining society with your toxic attitude!” and punches Helpy Carebear in the stomach. Helpy Carebear finally just gives up and tries to find a less toxic person to help. But by all means, blame CCP or whatever bike or tire manufacturer if it helps you cope with things. ---
**Author:** ![Daichi\_Yamato](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/daichi_yamato/32/252995_2.png) [@Daichi\_Yamato](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Daichi_Yamato)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/198 "2019-02-26T19:51:05Z")
> [@Aedaxus](#): > > The wardec halt was used to stop people leaving. So why would they leave faster after it was halted? (un)Helpy carebear didn’t patch the tire, he seems to have ripped a bigger hole into it. ---
**Author:** ![Anderson\_Geten](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/anderson_geten/32/390041_2.png) [@Anderson\_Geten](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Anderson_Geten)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/199 "2019-02-26T19:51:31Z")
> [@Daichi\_Yamato](#): > > Wait, so now the argument is gathering and analysing data is useless? It’s not useless. Just as saying that 80% of tree leaves are green in spring. It’s interesting for what it’s worth. But now you affirming that 80% of the tree leaves are extra terrestrial is just complete retard. But yeah for most people (especially people who have no rigor but want to show a point… like you) statistical data is useless. It’s useful to a degree, for example easier spread of wealth (insurance policies use them a lot), new market analysis, etc. But not for modeling interactions. > [@Daichi\_Yamato](#): > > Sure it is, now that the data doesn’t suit your narrative. “my narrative” being ? You are just saying carrots are tomatoes. Sorry for calling your ignorant, but that’s what you are. > [@Ghost\_O\_Mo](#): > > Causation can only be determined through the use of emotion. Watch the vids or STFU. Nothing more to add, if you rather be a retard all your life at this point it’s up to you. ---
**Author:** ![Nana\_Skalski](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/nana_skalski/32/489985_2.png) [@Nana\_Skalski](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Nana_Skalski)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/200 "2019-02-26T19:51:42Z")
![image](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/original/3X/5/3/5307d90602ccf69fd87edaee64308eb38e03f578.png) 🤔 thats two things, PLEX price and numbers of logged in accounts at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Aedaxus](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/aedaxus/32/393915_2.png) [@Aedaxus](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Aedaxus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 7:52pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853/201 "2019-02-26T19:52:16Z")
> [@Daichi\_Yamato](#): > > So why would they leave faster after it was halted? I have no idea, I see my friends returning to the game and buying omega. Maybe your friends are leaving… Who is leaving? [Previous page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853.md?page=9) [Next page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/the-summer-has-passed-but-eve-has-not-returned-to-40-000-concurent-users/141853.md?page=11)