# Why didnt u sell on top? 📉 **URL:** \ **Category:** Out Of Pod Experience\ **Created:** [January 15, 2021, 6:40pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275 "2021-01-15T18:40:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:36pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1253 "2021-05-28T20:36:39Z")
You’ve never seen gamblers in action, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:37pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1254 "2021-05-28T20:37:36Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > You’ve never seen gamblers in action, I think All trading is gambling. All of it. Efficient markets cannot be predictable. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:38pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1255 "2021-05-28T20:38:53Z")
> [@Alistair\_Atreides](#): > > Efficient markets cannot be predictable. This is one of the most preposterous things I have ever read. The only problem with predictable markets is that finance guys wouldn’t be able to skim vast fortunes out of the system. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:43pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1256 "2021-05-28T20:43:45Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > This is one of the most preposterous things I have ever read. The only problem with predictable markets is that finance guys wouldn’t be able to skim vast fortunes out of the system Preposterous? It’s mathematically provable lol. Take the MIT course on Risk and Return II and Portfolio theory I. They go through the math that proves all efficient markets are random. Think of it this way. If you know you’re going to lose. Are you going to sell to me? If I know I’m going to lose am I going to sell to you? Therefore when information is known on both sides there will be no transaction. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:47pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1257 "2021-05-28T20:47:27Z")
What about when somebody grows onions and wants to sell onions to the supermarket? Who benefits from randomness in that transaction? Should the price of bread in the supermarket be randomized to make it “efficient?” Is it more efficient to have everybody in the world wondering if any of their life savings will still be there when they go to retire? Maybe the market will go down by 80% tomorrow. Or up. Doesn’t seem very efficient to me. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:49pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1258 "2021-05-28T20:49:03Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > What about when somebody grows onions and wants to sell onions to the supermarket? Who benefits from randomness in that transaction? Do you think that guy doesn’t have an idea what the true price is? And doesn’t pay attention to the commodities markets to know what the best price he can get is? ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 8:51pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1259 "2021-05-28T20:51:14Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > Is it more efficient to have everybody in the world wondering if any of their life savings will still be there when they go to retire? Maybe the market will go down by 80% tomorrow. Or up. Doesn’t seem very efficient to me Random means it can’t be predicted. It doesn’t have anything to do with what its price is. You can say it won’t go to -80% with reasonable certainty. But you also can’t make that bet either. You can’t get anyone willingly to take your bet that the market won’t go down 80%. Therefore the trade doesn’t even exist and your assertion somehow that it hasn’t gone minus 80 is proof it isn’t random is equally asinine ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:00pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1260 "2021-05-28T21:00:02Z")
Asinine? Use a dictionary, fool. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:00pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1261 "2021-05-28T21:00:49Z")
Yes it’s asinine to assert a market is not random because of a condition that never exists in that market. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:03pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1262 "2021-05-28T21:03:43Z")
I don’t know what point you are trying to make or how your point might relate to what I said. I do not need randomness to make a transaction. Not all transactions involve frivolous parasitic trades that are meant to one-up the other party. Not all transactions are even zero-sum. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:06pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1263 "2021-05-28T21:06:49Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > I don’t know what point you are trying to make or how your point might relate to what I said. I do not need randomness to make a transaction. Not all transactions involve frivolous parasitic trades that are meant to one-up the other party. Not all transactions are even zero-sum If a person does not realize that in almost all markets they are gambling with random outcomes, then they do not realize that what successful traders are doing is managing risk. By managing risk, a person can trade into randomness and come out ahead. The same way a poker player can win at poker by managing their bets better than their opponents. All transactions in every market are minus-sum games. Worse than zero-sums. You’re paying someone for the privilege of entering the market. It’s like walking into a casino but you have to pay a cover charge. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:08pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1264 "2021-05-28T21:08:25Z")
You are arguing for the current system. True, the current “markets” are filled with people using randomness to fleece all the amateurs. I have never considered that a feature, since I am one of the amateurs getting fleeced. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:09pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1265 "2021-05-28T21:09:20Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > since I am one of the amateurs getting fleeced Then learn the game. Cuz it won’t change. It’ll just break you and find someone else ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:12pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1266 "2021-05-28T21:12:21Z")
I have real job. I will never be as good as people that play the game all day every day. It doesn’t matter how much studying I do - half the profits are made on insider trading and front-running trades. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:13pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1267 "2021-05-28T21:13:17Z")
The first thing you have to learn so as to not get taken by winners is to manage risk. Your downside risk has to be less than 2% of your bank (capital). Your downside risk is greater than 1 ATR than the lowest low of the current trend. Average True Rate If your target (1.5 - 2x downside risk) Can’t be supported by the trend then that trade is bad outright. If your downside risk costs yoi more than 2% of your trade then that’s a bad trade. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:14pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1268 "2021-05-28T21:14:03Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > I have real job. I will never be as good as people that play the game all day every day. It doesn’t matter how much studying I do - half the profits are made on insider trading and front-running trades Which is why you need to look for indicators of large trends and trade on momentum rather than technicals. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1269 "2021-05-28T21:15:47Z")
> [@Alistair\_Atreides](#): > > If your downside risk costs yoi more than 2% of your trade then that’s a bad trade. Are you from planet Earth? I can’t think of a single investment that has less than 2% downside risk. ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:23pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1270 "2021-05-28T21:23:30Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > Are you from planet Earth? I can’t think of a single investment that has less than 2% downside risk A lot of them do. Thousands of times a day. You put your stop at that 1xATR and place your bet so that the loss of that ATR is not more than 2% of your trading capital. So for instance if I have $1000 and if I get stopped. What should my stop cost me? $20. So if that ATR is greater than that. Then the volatility is too high. And the likelihood of me getting stopped is too high. And that is a bad trading environment. GME is a good example right now where ATR is 1 to 0.5 of target. So 1ATR:0.5 of highest highs. If you bought at 234 on Wed you’d need to have put your stop at 226.99 to avoid getting stopped. Then would have had to target 244.50 to be within a good ratio stop to target. If you put 1,000 @234 then got stopped at 226.99 (lowest low that day was 227 just saying) then that’s $30. Or 3% That’s a high risk. And not a good trade. You can find plenty of trades that are within 2%. That’s what most professional traders are looking for. ---
**Author:** ![Xeux](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/xeux/32/428022_2.png) [@Xeux](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Xeux)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:25pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1271 "2021-05-28T21:25:02Z")
> [@Alistair\_Atreides](#): > > You put your stop at that 1xATR and place your bet so that the loss of that ATR is not more than 2% of your trading capital. Until the market gaps up or down and your stop loss order can’t be filled. Or, your trading company might gamble on Greek bonds and accidentally lose your money… > **[MF Global Lawsuit - Lind-Waldock - Securities Fraud - LawyersandSettlements.com](https://www.bigclassaction.com/lawsuit/MF-Global-securities-arbitration.php)** > > Attorneys are investigating possible MF Global arbitration claims, alleging the financial firm lost approximately $1.2 billion of customer money through inappropriate transactions. Although there have been MF Global securities lawsuits filed,... ---
**Author:** ![Alistair\_Atreides](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/eveonline/user_avatar/forums.eveonline.com/alistair_atreides/32/267403_2.png) [@Alistair\_Atreides](https://forums.eveonline.com/u/Alistair_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2021, 9:28pm UTC](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275/1272 "2021-05-28T21:28:26Z")
> [@Xeux](#): > > Or, your trading company might gamble on Greek bonds and accidentally lose your money I’m not sure I’ve ever heard of something like that? Trade with a better firm? [Previous page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275.md?page=50) [Next page](https://forums.eveonline.com/t/why-didnt-u-sell-on-top/290275.md?page=52)