How do Markets work? [Guidance Systems example]

K looking at Guidance Systems what would you estimate from it? Or not enough info from the market indicators to determine one way or another?

I’m trying to get a feel for how to gather information about the market…how to know what the price might be 2 days or 10 days from now

You seem to be asking a lot of questions that are addressed by the many trading guides that ‘only touch the surface’.

The volume and trade history and trends are shown in the graphs. The knowledge of ‘what is moving, what is in oversupply, what is in demand’ is simply game knowledge you get from what you know about certain game activities, not ‘what someone is telling you’. Current events matter also (where are the wars, who is making a push in FW, is there an event on that uses X).

“Production cost” is not really an issue. Costs vary depending on skills, where you produce them, how you ship them. Games have always had a body of people who often produce tons of stuff without checking prices, realize they have a massive oversupply, and simply dump it at below the current rate to get rid of it.

As others have said, then the mass traders jump in, they don’t care about costs either. All they care about is “10,000 of these move per day at XXXX ISK, so I will put in buy orders for 5,000 at XXXX - 12%, sell what I get at XXXX - 1%, update my orders as the prices move”.

Nobody is going to ‘tell you’ the price things move at beyond what the graphs show… other marketers are using their own judgement to make their own profit. The price 2 days or 10 days from now is guesswork, unless you have inside knowledge or considerable experience to rely on that tells you where it is going.

This again only ‘touches the surface’, but it’s about as good as you’re going to get until you develop your own trading expertise:

Identifying Items for Trade: EveUni

In accurate to price or the supply/demand curve.

Guidance Systems was demolished in price for a week (now starting to recover) why, because of a blip of sales? C’mon. Bots? Stupid traders? What’s the deal.

Fair point.

This is kind of my point, it doesn’t seem hard to determine a REAL price, so why isn’t these people who aren’t determining a real price the ones driving the price.

It takes two, the idiot who posts the price, and the idiot who sells to them.

Mainly it comes down to badly priced buy orders.

If people just put buy orders at the right price, they’d buy immediately, and wouldn’t be at the mercy of sellers who are over priced.

And if buy orders are too low, they should never sell, and sell orders should never move.

Yet they do.

There’s no such thing as a “real” price. Your premise, much like an econ 101 class, is fundamentally flawed in that it assumes the market is comprised of “rational actors.” This is especially apparent because this is a video game and we’re talking about fun money. The markets are inefficient.

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As Malcolm just said, its not a rational market. Even real markets aren’t overly rational.

It’s a game. Some people have literally billions and trillions of ISK to play with, and short term changes on items aren’t even a blip on their pocket change. The market can be manipulated for giggles. The market can be manipulated by rumor. The market can be manipulated by giving actual useable information a broader dissemination earlier than it normally would be.

Here’s some tricks you can do… heh, no, on second thought, I just deleted the two paragraphs of ‘EVE market tricks you can do’ I had typed out. Because they’re my tricks and I’m sure you will have fun finding your own.

Let’s just say that to someone sitting on 20 or 30 billion isk, who isn’t overly concerned about making more just now but doesn’t mind messing with the market and maybe making a little ISK down the road… there are plenty of ways that the fairly simple mechanics of the EVE marketplace (buys, sells, bids, range limits, minimum quantities etc) can be manipulated.

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I am in Algogille, on Federation Navy Testing Facility. I am trying to sell 1.2M tritanium. I have 21 of 21 available open orders. There are three buy orders at the station, one for 6.10 at 500M units, one for 6.10 at 55M units, and one for 5.33 at 4.1M units. My sell immediate order only offers me 4.57 which appears to be a buy order at Couster, the next system. Why cant i get the highest price from my current station?

One (unlikely) reason could be that these buy orders have specified e.g. 2M units as minimum size of the order. Something else that can happen is that the buy orders have no money behind them (margin trading scam), but that would make the orders disappear once revealed.

Another explanation could be that you have the names of stations mixed up, it can happen but sounds unlikely in your case.

Edit: I was in the system - the two top orders do in fact demand 3M units as minimum.

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