How do Markets work? [Guidance Systems example]

Ok, it’s evident the Guidance System market just imploded over the last week. Jita Sellers were selling for 96k. Jita Buyers were buying for 92k. Now there’s no Jita buyers close to that mark and all the Jita sellers have adjusted their price to 88k.

How do Jita sellers even KNOW this? Is it reflected in information on Adam4Eve or something? And people just look at adjust? Or is it just by feel and a seller notices pressure and lowers price?

What is the deciding factor? How does a marketeer make a decision?


I suggest you learn how to read the volume/history tab of the market. Looking at you can see that the donchian channel is showing the grey channel below the price lines. Which means people dumping big volumes to buy orders.

When the buy orders get destroyed most people impatient undercutters then start making drastic undercuts on their sell orders since the buy order ceiling is now much lower and they slowly drive the price down.

Thats my opinion at least

Your opinion is good, but how do you tell if an item has support and will recover in price?

Thanks for the Doachian Channel info, can you elaborate? I don’t know how to use it.

Understand where the item comes from (mission rewards, ratting, salvaging, plexing, LP store ETC).

Understand the source, and pay attention to things happening that might affect that source.

I’m also not going to reinvent the wheel here, so google around. THere are multiple youtube series about how the market works and reading it. I’m not in Brave, but seems they have a public facing guide.

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Yeah but those guides seem to only hit the surface…for instance with GS they are under production value, so way under priced. Or other inputs are way over priced. How does the market not know that yet?

Because your average jita .01 isker doesn’t care/know about that. All they care about is the spread between buy and sell.

Not sure I understand that. Why would a buyer not raise price to at least production since no one will sell to them at much below? Or at any. Even sellers are taking a loss right now in the example

Your average newb trader doesn’t know, doesn’t care what the production cost of an item is. Anyway, seems we are starting to repeat ourselves, I’ll let someone else more knowledgable chime in

So what do they know? How does someone tell them raise price they are only hurting themselves? Lol

What I can see is, that sales/demand significantly decreased over the last two years, hence price is low.

Don’t forget about those margin buy orders that are there to prop the price up.

Guess that burned them in this case hah.

How does someone determine demand?

I’m not sure how else to state this. Not everyone selling those are people who have built them.

There are people in this game that consider the minerals they mine to be ‘free’ meaning, I can sell an item I built at what ever price I want and I still make a profit because the minerals I mined myself.

Traders who are just putting up buy orders and flipping to sells do not care one bit what it costs to build the item, they only care that the margin between buy and sell is big enough to make a profit.

None of them bought cheaper than 88k lol

Other than by markets is there a way to determine demand/consumption of stuff?

To know where it comes from and where it goes, and what happens with those sources/targets … aka patch speculations. Else commodities are cyclic, you can follow the price swings over the years.

BTW, I’m wondering why Sterile Conduits are spiking atm. Looks like offer in Jita or production is on record low.

Turns a keen eye. Actually I noticed some other p4s are turning up too. Maybe blackout anticipation and effects are driving actual demand?

Maybe it’s just more fake floors like Guidance Systems?

There doesnt seem to be enough buyers so maybe the false floor?

There is this thing called “opportunity cost”. The broad effect of this is that your buy price should not always decide your sell price. To wait until the “price is right” will cost you opportunities.

For example: some of those that bought Guidance Systems for 90K now find that their money is tied up. They have heavy vaults but no cash. Selling at 88K is not necessarily stupid, because it gives them opportunity to make new trades in other items. What matters is how you maximise your profits over a month or over a year. You cut your losses and move on.


This is a good consideration, I didn’t think of it as a “cash out” but that’s Market PvP I suppose?

Yes. Personally I care nothing about the buy price once I have the item. What I consider is what the price will be 2 days from now or 10 days from and how large my stocks are on this item, i.e. how “exposed” I am on that item.