The published image shows +36.5T in money supply and +33.6T of that from Faucets vs. Sinks. The rest should logically be AID.
No, you are wrong. They publish absolutely no details of “Active ISK Delta” with the MER Raw Data. The have the IskVolume.csv which is solely an ongoing table which contains Month:ISK Volume. Then they have exactly the same kind of table for MoneySupply, another one for Production/Destruction/Mining, and a detailed table for the monthly SinksFaucets.
Nowhere in there are details about ISK becoming active or inactive, i.e. how the number for “Active ISK Delta” is put together.
Before embarassing yourself further by throwing around insults why you are the one who talks out of his ass, maybe take a look at the data and show us where you want to see the numbers for “Active ISK Delta”.
But yeah, you can’t and that’s why you react so angry.
You could, if you were able to follow a link. The May data zip is working correctly, alas the link needs you to do manual fixing (it includes the site linked from at the beginning). Every half-wit would instantly realize that and be able to retrieve the May MER, but you Mr. Likestoinsultothers doesn’t have the most simple logical or practical tools at hand to solve such a tiny little obstacle.
Makes one wonder if…
you aren’t the one guy every company has who is having a job way beyond his capabilities, but thinks that everyone else is soooo stupid. I mean if you just had the ability to listen to others or show some basic respect, you might still have a chance to learn something. Really, I can recommend it.
Active ISK delta (AID) is a financial number to indicate leaving and returning players, it makes sense. Positive AID indicates returning players while negative AID – left or gone inactive players. Spikes on Total ISK diagram should be a result of AID influence over time and it makes sense too. The ISK influx of last two months can be explained by AID in short time perspective, but in long period – it’s not.
The assumptions of incoming players from Serenity, CSM effect, the resubbing players to try new content, errors in MER reports are good but there are one or two causes, which completely ruins those assumptions. I must be more accurate, because at some level some of the mentioned assumptions had influence but at short or minimal level, which isn’t a case to explain overall ISK Influx Anomaly.
IDK about Somer Blink, Citadels or IWI negative AID. Since Clone State Alpha, I’m a relatively active player not only on forums, but online also. Therefore, the data about other MER reports, market operations and speculations, released events, active online players (EVE-Online Status Monitor) are pretty accurate. Especially EVE-Online Status Monitor (EOSM), which is published below, shows very accurate daily and monthly data, which I noticed over time.
Clone State Alpha
During last two years the Clone State Alpha spike shows that positive AID is a result of returning players in minority and just new registered Alpha clones in majority pretty accurate. If we’ll look at respective EOSM below, we can notice that huge positive AID (near 110T ISK) happened at the same time when average players online increased from 31k to 40k (segment BC). How to explain the Money Supply (MS) curve below? In a list order:
A – November 15th Ascension Expansion;
AB – active players moved some of their 2nd or 3rd Omega clones inactive by registering new Alpha clones. Other players turned all their Omega subscriptions to Alpha subscription; A lot of ISK (close to 50T) was gone temporarily;
BC – during this shifting process, the ISK from their Omega alts where moved to their main Omega characters or their new Alpha alts through contracts. Because contracts can be accepted afterwards, this created that sink effect (is a question about the order of statistical computations);
ABC – is just a shifting process and is displayed on MS diagram due to specific computation order. If we’ll connect the dots A and C then we’ll get the average MS value without expansion effect;
CD – can be explained as positive AID (close to 60T ISK) of returning players wishing to try that completely new game content. So, 50-60T ISK - is the max possible positive AID of returning players. We must notice that Alpha clones can’t be multiboxed, so addition online characters to 41k can’t be buffed by the old number of players with addition Alpha clone multiboxing;
D-PCU’17 – is a scenario when all players under Alpha clones began to lose their ISK on Skill Books, Blueprints, Insurance, LP Store and other;
PCU’17-E – is a scenario when returned players began to deactivate their accounts again after 1-2 months resub during winter vacations, which can be observed with EOMS average of 38k since Feb;
DE – is a summary of intense loses of ISK on Alpha clones and negative AID;
AE – if to connect the dots A and E, we can get a normal evolving MS segment with normal working economy without this expansion AID effect.
CDE – remember this segment curve, which shows the effect of one-two months resubbing players combined with avg EOSM of 43k.
The Spring 2017 MS spike can be explained partially. It is first time when I noticed some strange order into the link between Money Supply, online active players, AID and real in game and outside game events. Here is an explanation of images below in a list order:
ABCD – is probably the first spike-curve, due to in game CSM voting period (Mar 6 to Mar 27 2017) and outside game Fanfest (Apr 6 2017). This spike is a result of activated Omega alts for 1 month subscription of Null-Sec power bloc players, just to vote for their candidate. Based on my rough calculations, their number can be significant, around 5k characters, maybe more, with overall 35T ISK on wallets. The continuously decreasing EOSM average just shows us that those alts weren’t online in a role of multiboxing toys;
AB – resubbing of alts;
BC – CSM voting period. It’s an assumption!
CD – the end of voting subscription. The AB ISK influx with positive AID is close by value to CD ISK sink of negative AID;
DEF – this spike is the most interesting, based on his amplitude and time. I can’t explain this. He’s very similar to the previous winter CDE, but there is not any expansion active and average players online were close to 29k. As I remember, on June 5th only Rogue Drone Infestation event was implemented. What is the reason for old player to return or resub just before the summer vacations and during the time while EVE is going cold. Based on EOSM results, the DE isn’t that positive AID case, when old players tried to return, to be online, to play Rogue Drone Event. Maybe I’m wrong;
F-EVE Vegas2017-Lifeblood – interestingly happened without any spikes. A huge expansion, just before Christmas vacations happened without AID spikes.
Vote system of 2017:
Summary
For those of you not interested in a career in space politics, you can show your love for democracy by voting!
Voting is performed through the CSM portal on the EVE Community website. The voting site will not be accessible until voting opens on March 6. - To vote your account must be in Omega state at the time of voting. This is due to the increased ease of voting manipulation by mass creating alpha accounts specifically for voting purposes. Despite this, Alpha players are eligible to run and serve on the CSM. - Accounts must be at least 30 days of age before they can vote.
Every active Omega account gets to vote once, but each vote allows you to choose up to 14 characters in the order of your preference, from highest to lowest.
Votes cannot be edited or revoked after they are submitted
The voting system we use is called Single Transferrable Vote.
The code used to tally votes is available on Github in this repository. The voting data will be made available after the election results have been announced if you wish to verify the results of the tally.
This MS spike is very similar to previous one, but with shifted time phases of previous segments: ABCD and DEF.
AC of Spring 2018 has higher AID amplitude than Alpha clone expansion AID - do we have more returning players again this time?!;
ABC – I have no idea what this should mean. What is the point for new or old players to return just two months before the Into the Abyss expansion were released. On Apr 1 it wasn’t on SiSi even. Interestingly that the data is NA for AID, but during previous Spring spike, similarly to this one by amplitude and time, the data was ok;
AB – shows an interval with sufficient positive AID, ISK influx, something close to viral people activity, like YouTube views on Katy Perry new video clips;
BC – this happened during short time period of 10 days (Apr 28 to May 10) with a lot of incoming ISK, with a lot of NA data and with absolutely unchanged EOSM average of 30k;
CD – the segment curve can be explained as a preparation to the next CSM voting, which should have a view similarly to previous ABCD ‘monthly impulse’ with 25-30T ISK amplitude and 1 month time interval.
CCP and economists of big Alliances should have been observed this (based on how they tracking the monthly MER and Exports/Imports by Region), but they keep silence.
If this is an artificial ISK influx by unknown origin, then the future diagram should not collapse into respective sink with equal ‘counter-amplitude’. Or maybe there is a way of Money laundering? ISK sinks shows nearly the same values during the last 5 months, which is interesting. BTW, I can buy Capital and Super BPO in huge quantities over time – no Tax, Skills and Broker’s Fee.
The May data is computed based on known scripts and DB monthly records only and it can’t be corrupted because Apr data were corrupted.
CCP will not react on this in any way, especially if they are busy with new Executive Producer, incoming CSM, summer AT. - It’s veeery strange that Summer ISK influx of 2018 have the same (even bigger) amplitude and curve as the winter Alpha clone spike. It practically can’t be possible, that such amount of players around the World will show absolutely identical activity during winter expansion of 2017 (one week interval) and two months before summer expansion of 2018!
old characters, based on MS line angle and in game inflation, can’t bring so much ISK into the game.
If to leave things unchanged,based on published above examples, the summer MS diagram will look like similarly the one below based on negative AID expectations.
First, AID has seasonality, much as PCU.
Second, old players have a large imapct on AID, whereas new accounts have little impact on it. A new account might be worth about 40 milion ISK after tutorial, older players easily are worth 1000x or 2000x that much, even if they return as Alpha.
Thrid, returns concnetrate in short burts, whereas retirements spread over time. We don’t know how CCP defines “active” user, but it might be “anyone who logged anytime in in the last 90 downtimes”. We know that each downtime, assets which haven’t been called for 90 days are stored in “cold” long term storage to limit server load on the “hot” storage being used daily. So probably if an account didn’t show activity, it’s stored in long temr after 90 days since last login.
So AID shows big accounts login in and becoming acitve very fast around seasonal events, and then trickling inactive for the next weeks and months. AID is positive when they return for an event/season cause, and remains negative rest of year as each big account outnumbers easily new acounts just starting.
I know what the AID is and I have no issue with it when used in looking at the money supply as I have already indicated.
We have not seen such surges in the ISK supply in that past when similar events have occurred. We have had CSM elections, no surge. We have had new content…no surge. Maybe Alphas are making the difference in that “becoming active” is much easier and cheaper to activate an account.
Not sure I agree with all of your story for this segment of the graph, but I do agree that we could basically smooth the graph betweec points A and E with all the movement in between being related to Alphas, redefining the AID concept etc.
Maybe, but if so why was this CSM related surge in the money supply so dramatic. It is bordering on the same kind of surge we saw with Alphas if not even stronger?
This was the changes to carrier/super ratting. People who ratted in carriers and supers were just raking in the ISK…brand new ISK. So much so that CCP made an emergency nerf to carriers/supers and caused a ginormous threadnaught. Note that the increase in ISK was largely due to the AID which indicates that alot of previously inactive pilots who were carrier/super capable were logging in to get in on the ISK printing. But with the nerf that AID largely decayed away in the following months.
Here is the threadnaught…
The overall increase when you include the few June observations does claw back some of those gains suggesting maybe your CSM hypothesis is correct. Still it is a huge shift that we haven’t seen before.
But doesn’t PCU usually have a low seasonal point in summer?
Yeah, but we’d need alot of them for this…like say 1,500.
It is possible the redefinition has caused greater volatility which would make references to earlier periods problematic.
Well, on a rough estimate, EVE Online haves a minimum of 600,000 retired veteran PvE players. So if only 1 in 1,000 return for a release, that’s a lot of iSK hitting the AID.
Why 600,000 retired veteran PvE players?
Average PCU for 2009-2017 (pre-F2P) was 47k; subscribers used to be in a ballpark of 8 subscribers per unit of PCU so average subcriber count would be 376k.
Then, “pure” PvE players used to be 40% of subscriber count, that’s an average of 150k active PvE subscribers each year, for a grand total of 1,200,000 active PvE subscribers in 8 years; since the average tenure for a PvE subscriber used to be 2 years, we need (1,200,000 subscriber/year / 2 years) = 600,000 unique subscribers to account for all active PvE subscribers in the period.
PLUS all toher retired players, plus the ones leaving after F2P… I’d say 600,000 is a conservative estimate on how many people ever played EVE for the PvE until they left
We still don’t know how exactly CCP counts the AID, but I think this is the most reasonable explanation. Alpha clones could never have such a huge influence, not with the PCU numbers we see everday. Tell you what, I know a few guys who don’t play anymore, but they would login for any kind of free stuff. I’d be interested in seeing how many vets logged in for 5 minutes just to get that Filament.
As I said before, CSM elections could be another factor. Actually, when looking at 2017 it could make sense.
CSM elections 2017 have been open from March 6 to March 26.
AID Feb 2017: -35.59T ISK
AID Mar 2017: -5.16T ISK (Election Month)
AID Apr 2017: -40.86T ISK
AID for 2017 CSM election month was still negative, but differed greatly from the month before and after.
Finally, it could be a combination of all of it.
Also, CCP might have unbanned people with fat wallets. They don’t normally announce such things.
There might also have been high-ISK compensations for something that we don’t know about.
They don’t publish details of AID in the Raw Data (contrary to what @Teckos_Pech repeatedly claimed, before he suddenly shut up after being proven wrong), so unless CCP decides to throw us a bone, we won’t know.
Also Teckos, really lame play from you here. You could have at least shown some balls and admit that you have been totally wrong and that you mocking everybody else about something you were actually wrong, was a mistake. Meh.
CCP lost a court case against a rmt botter from china does anyone have a link I lost mine. Was he TQ or Serenity botter? Maybe this is the explanation?
You presented it as if the Raw Data, you didn’t manage to retrieve (because you thought the file is corrupt, when really the link was just broken and easily fixable), could ever contain anything that would tell us more about the why “Active ISK Delta” is higher or lower in one month or the other. CCP never published details on that. For the discussion of AID it would not even matter if the file would really have been corrupt (which it wasn’t).
Anyhow, you don’t seem to be interested in discussions where you can learn something, but only feel the need to teach others how stupid you think they are. Turns out that can lead to you being the one who doesn’t see something straight. Suit yourself.
No doubt. Anyway, I have a feeling that you looking at AID behind time, while I’m looking at it proactively. Aka, you pointing that ‘AID shows’, positive AID is returning players for new expansion, like AID is a result of dropped dice number and this number determines how real people from around the World will react. I’m pointing, that the money fluctuations, including AID spikes, is determined by players in game activity mainly and firstly. Players activity is designed by EOMS partially.
If we talking about returning players, no matter who they are, than they must be interested in to play the game and to be online. During these ISK spikes we have even lower online activity, based on EOMS diagram, than before the new expansion was released. Moreover, not every expansion is supported by such a wave of returning players.
Also, resubbing and leaving players should be displayed with steep slopes to align the subscription model of 1, 2, 3, 4 months subscription. Like similarly it happened shortly after Alpha expansion was introduced (the steep slope after PCU’17 (which means that one or two months subscription passed) and during CSM voting. Actual ISK spikes are not presented in a steep slope manner, but monotonous, like a triangle.
This is the anomaly. Between 2010 and 2014, when players online activity was very high, - no huge spikes and surges.
It can be explained proactively. Since 2010 in game was created a powerful CFC coalition, in which almost all Omega Alts were active. During CSM voting period, everybody was instructed how to vote for their CFC and Money Badger leaders. The concurrence was low and the results were predefined. There was no need in addition voting resource reactivation.
Since Alpha expansion, a lot of the Omega Alts were turned inactive or in Alpha state with all those ISK. Moreover, the CFC was disbanded and Money badger - banned. This created an atmosphere of uncertainties, especially during CSM voting. So, those ISK impulses during CSM voting, can be explained with such kind of reinforcements to mitigate those uncertainties. Based on difference between Corporation and player Wallets, all players are keeping their money far deep into their pockets to mitigate corporation thefts.
That thread was created by Null-Sec ratters as a protest vs Carrier and Supers damage nerfs. I remember that thread, I even posted there also by offering to nerf bounties not Fighters damage. BTW, after that rage, CCP didn’t nerfed Fighter’s damage, but in return they nerfed generated Ore Anomalies timers (I’m not familiar with that) and drop loot from trivial combat sites (Black Summer for trivial explorers). Therefore, the printing machine remained untouched, but trivial players were ‘taxed’ even more.
Anyway, your argument (new Supers motivated old/Alt players to resub) can’t explain the continuously falling EOSM diagram of online players before summer vacations. And it can’t explain this spring ISK spike certainly.
It’s 600! It’s much ISK or not, IDK. Every of them should have 150-200B ISK in their Wallets. Almost all veterans with hundreds of billions ISK, I know, keep their main account subbed for years just to roll SP.
Each year since the MER is being published, we have a yearly “Active ISK Delta” of minus several hundred Trillion. -30 Tril in a month is totally normal. Some of those perma-bans, temporary bans and another part is players going inactive.
What we don’t know, because CCP doesn’t publish any more detailled numbers, is how many ISK that fall under the category “AID” come back into the game vs. how many left. All we know is the final number.
-30T may as well say that 20T came back with players, 50T left/were banned etc.
A large positive number for “AID” could be the result of a bunch of things.
It could be that CCP did not ban as much in these months.
It could be that temp bans have been lifted.
It could be that Abyssal Deadspace sucked players back in.
It could be temporary reactivation of accounts in order to vote for CSM.
It could be that a massive amount of accounts had been hacked by newly arriving groups of players who want to give themselves a head start.
It could even be someone finding and abusing a loophole or exploit in game.
Who knows.
CCP will not tell us any more detail I think.
Some of those numbers are simply business secrets.
Also, if CCP published the number of bans or the number of people going inactive vs. returning each month, this could easily be abused by tinfoil-hatters or “eve is dying” apologetes to create unrest once they find numbers that they manage to interprete to their liking.
This makes sense. The main difference there is next: returning CSM ISK remains inactive and will gone soon, while the ISK influx is assimilating somehow.
If you say anything bad about Chinese here, some forum members and staff decide you’re a racist. That’s how low the mentality of people has fallen, they think Chinese is a race.
I lived for a while at the border of two civilizations: First World and Second World.
I can definitely say that the inhabitants of the First World don’t understand the dictatorship of the Second World and the inhabitants of the Second World don’t understand the democracy of the First World.
In the First World the dictatorship and other nasty things is understood in a screwed manner as the democracy is understood in the Second World. The First World’s people thinking that with democracy and tolerance it is possible to control and evolve the Second World, while the Second World’s people believe that the democracy allows them to say and to do whatever they want over the law, liberty, humanity basements.
