ISK Influx Anomaly

The MER contains data computed by programs automatically, based on current DB records. The algorithm was designed properly to work on a monthly basis. What happened to player wallets, that this turned the algorithm (which worked stable for the last 8th months) to show NA results? The program wasn’t changed, as I know. I mean the NA results aren’t because program, but because initial data - the program worked with ‘strange data’.

Possibru.

Will be intersting to see if there is a corresponding drop 3-4 months later if they become inactive again without leaving their isk in the game.

I seriously hope its not from re-activated banned accounts, as that would indicate CCP did not penalize their wallets.

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…Ironically…

Maybe Star Citizen fans resubbed to try their beloved Vulture… I’m sorry… Venture. :thinking:

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I can tell you that automated processes can easily go off the rails. What went wrong? IDK…but something clearly has.

FYI: Where I work we have over 5.2 million customers that we bill every month…and sometimes stuff goes off the rails horribly. Seems like this is a similar case for CCP. I recommend we wait and see if they can sort it out. Ping @CCP_Falcon and @CCP_Fozzie and hopefully they’ll look at this and this issue will get sorted.

The issue is that the data you are looking at is messed up…and we don’t know how or why. So arguing over it is like arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin…it is pointless. But if you want to keep arguing go for it.

BTW, good eye @Rexxar_Santaro. Spotting an error like this is always good thing.

Everyone should go like his OP in this thread.

For April the AID was NA and so EOM Money supply was NA as well.

However, for May we have data for BOM, which means that BOM May is the retrospective final number for EOM April. CCP does not publish the internals of AID calculation. All you can reach by insisting “we don’t know how or why” is CCP saying “Yeah, sorry we were late, something went wrong”, which also doesn’t change anything and doesn’t give you new numbers, unless they suddenly publish internals of AID, as in specific amounts of ISK leaving through bans or specific amounts of ISK on accounts becoming inactive. Just because they put “NA” there once, doesn’t mean they’ll go for total transparency to “make up for that”.

The numbers are indeed there:

BOM April = 1142.4466 T
BOM May = EOM April = 1178.9463 T
Difference = +36.4997 T ISK in Money Supply for April

ISK Faucets April: 102.5199 T
ISK Sinks April: 68.8817 T
Result Faucets minus Sinks April: 33.6382 T

Change in Money Supply April = Result Faucets + AID
Change in Money = 36.4997 T (see above)
36.4997 = 33.6382 + AID
AID April = 2,8615 T ISK

Not so hard, is it.

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For comparison, the Graphic for May 2017

Indeed, a good example how to read these numbers. Total balance at the end of this month (EOM) must be equal to total balance at the start of next month (BOM).

@zluq_zabaa posted the “ISK Sinks & Faucets, May 2017” image above. It definitely shows us that positive Active ISK delta, with all micro-data linked to it, isn’t an issue. The wrong result is a scenario of abnormal input data.

Players are yelling “Omg! Omg! 5 Supers were destroyed in a Blob brawl!”. Since Apr 1 to May 10 (40 days) into the game was injected near 100T ISK (based on virtual data), which is a total Money Supply of entire New Eden during a year on average basis. Similarly things happened after Alpha implementation in Jan 2017 and May 2017, which is strange, because a new Alpha character has ‘50 Cents’ in his Wallet. I just can’t count how many Alpha clones should be subbed to gain addition 10T ISK on Total Balance.

I haven’t posted anything about my thoughts around it yet. I hoped that it can be a trivial explanation of this.
I hope that the TQ server wasn’t hacked and a range of wallet accounts weren’t changed with addition one or two zeros during those DDoS.

Anyway, my point here isn’t to argue about this, but to inform the community and mainly CCP to look at it. Onlly CCP have access to DB records and can sort it. Not only BOM and EOM data for every Wallet can be used, but the ‘Double-entry bookkeeping system’ - what come to one account, must gone from another one, with respective description: it’s a bounty, market trade or ISK donation.

The major part for a positive value in “Active ISK Delta” are formerly inactive Accounts who become active again. That means they are either returning after a temporary ban or they were counted as inactive, due to not logging in for X amount of time.

Say a medium old player has 100B ISK in the wallet and didn’t log in for a year. CCP might count the player ISK as inactive. The player logs in during May, is counted as active again and thus 100B ISK added to AID.

For most months the AID is deep in the two digit negative Trillions, due to bans or players going inactive. That’s the sole reason for the overall Money Supply in the graph not showing a much steeper upwards curve. If they’d only counted Faucets vs. Sinks, you’d see a rise of 30T ISK per month on average.

With the monthly Production greatly outweighing the monthly Destruction, this could actually make sense, but the issue here is clearly that the source of ISK influx is limited to a tiny amount of the playerbase. Sooner or later this will lead to a total devaluation of assets, unless players suddenly decided to not use ISK as their money anymore.

P.S.
You are right, creation of Alpha Clones might potentially play a role as well, but I think really just a minor role. Even if CCP counts other minor ISK faucets to AID (like Opportunity rewards), it would be very hard to reach even 1T without a noticeable rise in active players.

The reasons should be CSM elections, resubbed Alphas, corrupted DB and now hacked DB? Really? Are you guys trolling and acting stupid? More and more i get the impresssion that the official forums is just a playground for trolls.

If you follow the meta a little bit it is quite obvious why there is so much old ISK coming back.

Pls, illuminate us into the meta of old isk!

BTW, you missed my meta reason:

Amazing. We know the April data is screwed up. The May raw data file is screwed up. We can’t tell if what went wrong in April is indeed fixed and everyone is still treating the data as if it is accurate. Whatever.

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So? We also have graphs for April and we know that data is bad. We can’t look at the raw May data because the file is corrupted.

Seriously go download the May file and try to open it.

As for the active ISK delta since EVE dos not have a robust financial sector not counting that ISK is not crazy. When a player goes in active the potential for that ISK to influence the economy goes practically to zero. Heck the ISK in my wallet doesn’t have much influence most of it just sits there.

I won’t pretend I understand EVE economics, but has anyone accounted for high sec moon mining?

I can’t see mining-related income in the graphs, but it’s in the right time frame (if one accounts for the time taken to build, set up, start getting returns etc) and, anecdotally, transformed me from space-poor to… not so space-poor. I assume the many many other Athanors are also making a tidy profit.

Active ISK Delta is based on active accounts. All it takes is for a player to log in once so his account is deemed active and all his assets count on the AID.

So they see the expansion, they log in for the first time in months/years, and bang!, those are 50 or 100 billion iSK sudenly becoming active thus impacting the AID. Also, since it takes a undetermined amount of months untl an account is deemed inactive, probably there won’t be a matching descent in AID in june/july, maybe just higher than average descents.

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Moon mining does not create ISK.

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Problem is we don’t see this with most other expansion. And we know the April data is bad. We can’t look at the raw May data.

But please carry on theorizing about this with dubious data. :sunglasses:

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No we don’t. It’s just your baseless assumption. “NA” stands for not available, which is something that regularly happens when a monthly statistic is published while a part of the data hasn’t been delivered or finalized. With the May MER they published a BOM Money Supply, which is obviously what they settled on regarding EOM April. Again, BOM May = EOM April. They did not make the effort to retrospectively change the April MER, so what? This doesn’t tell you that the Data is bad, just that it wasn’t there at the time the MER was published. Now it is there and all you need to do is using basic math.

You pretend that CCP would ever publish more details about the “Active ISK Delta” than just a positive/negative ISK value. They don’t. Use math, so you don’t need to tinfoil-hat about CCP presenting “bad data”.

Which means we don’t have a complete data set. That is, in my experience, bad.

We can’t see the raw data so we don’t know what is going on really.

Okay, so in April we had a 32 trillion ISK increase in the money supply because of incomplete data. In May we see that the active ISK delta is…32 trillion. Now it could just be coincidence, but seeing the raw data might be good.

But they did. Do you actually work with data? Holy crap you are like the people where I work, reporting, basing work on…numbers they don’t know about. And my point isn’t that CCP is doing something nefarious, but just that the data upon which you are building all these intricate theories on is…suspect. You are like a person who when given a chicken McNugget you manage to work it up into an entire roast chicken with potatoes and greens.

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