Machine Learning with Market data

Marketplace Market Discussions
1

So I am a fairly new player to eve, but I happen to play with market data, machine learning systems IRL and think there is a new meta game opening up that could be interesting for more than one player and has a potential security impact as well.

Thing is: Even with a Free account, one can play a good game on the markets. Game interaction is minimal and market data is out there. Given a sophisticated enough machine learning system and a creative community of pilots who happen to be interested in writing ML code that does stuff like prediction of markets. Problem with IRL Markets is: There are limitations on trade.

Reality today is: A great sum of trades is predicted and executed by automated systems and as much as I dont know which market data exactly is out there, the significance of these data to IRL events.

So what can a machine learning system with market data do?

  • start predicting prices for areas you move to
  • include ship kills, sellers alliances, alliance losses etc from zkillbboard -> set up market trades before losses happen ;)))
  • predict wars, large spike of losses
  • find alliances manipulating the market or “fixing prices”
  • find irregular activity
  • sell this info to the big Alliances (Multiple: Market Prediction Scripts) G*

So why not get the machine learning community to make Free Accounts and help them set up a corp, where all these people go. I mean its “excel in space” so why not welcome people here who love long Tables of statistics.

I think some players / Alliances do this already - IT IS TOO OBVIOUS. Lots of players have the hardware and everyone can participate on a level playing field. But a rather open access would be nice to all of us. As ML things get simpler and simpler these days, the people who know about and have computers that are able to do it get bigger and bigger.

  1. Who is known to use machine learning on market data already?
  2. What would be valuable predictions to make?
  3. How would you like to use such a service?
  4. How and how much would you pay for it in ISK?
  5. Why not set up a Corporation to onboard Free Tier Players and build a new (meta) game on top of Eve?
2

Basically you want a free neural network. Instead of asking other people to make this for you, why not make your own?

3

I am not saying I am not willing to put resources on it, IRL and ingame, but I wanted to know what people already did. And no, I do no want someone to train my network, but this is not a simple thing and not only about fielding a bunch of 1080 GTX cards.

4

In Eve a single player can easily hit the market, and a bunch of them can do this even worse, making any financial model useless. Provided it could ever have any usefulness …

And don’t forget that CCP deployment cycle adds up a good amount of uncertainity very often.

What i think could be done is a recommendation system: by analysing your clients shop list you could maybe understand “What also people could buy…” and make it available on the market. But for each system, where you want this to work, you should put up for sales lots of products, since you need that relation between item purchased and the user who bought it (which normal market data do not expose).

5

Having done this for a while and having worked in sports betting and finance, I’d recommend you take a stab at sports betting, where AI does produce some good results. EvE markets aren’t efficient or volatile enough to be worth it.

At best, with AI, you could try to flag market manipulation attempts. But that’s not a whole lot of money compared to being able to value items correctly, which AI doesn’t help you with.

6

Free accounts will have prohibitively high trading costs and won’t ever be competitive regardless of the algorithm you use.

7

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