Dude, please stop being intentionally dense. The green line is not ‘data’. The green line is something I tossed on in 3 seconds, right before posting, as a visual indicator for those who can’t read charts well. It extends about 5 months more to the left than it really should. As does the red line, a bit too far to the right.
The end period of the 4 years of declining player participation in EVE is the sharp dip near the bottom of the red line, ending in roughly August of 2016. Player participation begins to pick up around the beginning of September, as word leaks out that EVE is going F2P. The numbers skyrocket briefly in Nov/Dec. 2016 (launch of Alpha state), and stay high for much of 2017, then decline and level off at a higher number than they were pre-Alpha. The numbers are currently back into a slowly decline.
This is because CCP had one, awesome shot at attracting a lot of new players. They were desperate for numbers, most likely because they knew they were going to court a buyout and the bleeding player numbers looked bad. So they rushed in an Alpha state, shored up the numbers, and then did absolutely nothing to adapt their game to a F2P model. The closest they came to making a stab at actual F2P marketing was putting in the Daily Alpha injectors, which they did at the end of 2017, again probably in some sort of response to the rapidly dropping Alpha numbers.
The ‘spike’, as you say, is what happens when any well known game introduces a major change that looks interesting, and the ‘spike’ still levels off at higher base numbers than there were pre-Alpha.
Alpha succeeded. It did exactly what it was supposed to do - make EVE look like it wasn’t slowly dying, and generated a lot of buzz - and if it has failed to produce significant income (something all you ‘Alpha opposers’ keep saying, but have absolutely no data on) then that is on CCP for not changing their model at all to take advantage of F2P spending patterns.
However, CCP says Alpha was a success, and they have posted some of their best numbers ever, and it looked good enough for PA to come along and buy the company… after Alpha had been running for two years. So, since CCP and PA were the ones to look at the numbers, and CCP calls it a success, and PA thought CCP was worth hundreds of millions… I’d say you guys are full of crap and denial, and Alpha is here to stay.
It’s really only of question of, can CCP learn how to market to them?