Securing the legacy of Elabon and Heideran in a new era

Anyone reading your previous statements can see just what a falsehood this statement is. You’re angry, you feel betrayed, and you’re embracing a vindictive transactionalism in response.

In other words, your fefes are very much in a twist.

And any Gallente with half a brain should be encouraging this. In the long run, the Federation has been aware since the moment of contact that the Empire is far more of an existential threat than the State. The State may provide some friction, and there may be hard feelings that flare into a sort of constant low-level conflict… but the State isn’t about to try to conquer the Federation. That’s not their nature. Conquest isn’t a part of State ideology, nor is aggressive expansion into new territories.

Now, you might look at the warzone and say ‘but look! They keep taking space that started off Federal’ and that’s true. But once again, you have to do the thing you seem constitutionally incapable of doing: look at the context. The State militias have taken systems… that they’re allowed to, by CONCORD treaty, systems the Federation has made available for exploitation by State forces, freely and willingly. Nobody forced the Federation to put Intaki in the warzone to start off, the Senate approved that all on their own.

And, as we’ve seen with CONCORD’s statements about Intaki: while control may have fluctuated, the underlying sovereignty never did. People just like to think of these systems as ‘conquered’ because it gives them a convenient shorthand without having to consider the rules of what is… and has for a long time been openly described as, little more than international-level bloodsports. And in those bloodsports, the State has consistently played by the rules established, in part, by the Federation.

So there’s no reason to see any danger of a war of conquest from the State. Ok, so what about the other border?

The Federation’s other border has a massive, sprawling Empire whose openly stated goal is the conquest of all of space. All of it. That includes you. They want to enslave you. The Empire, hands down, is the greater existential threat, because unlike the State, the Empire actually threatens the Federation’s existence.

And this is something the Federation has known since they first encountered the Amarr. It is, after all, part of why the Federation provided material support, but did not openly assist in the Rebellion. So having the Republic doing the work of helping to pry the Caldari away from the Amarr only helps the Federation.

Think it through: if the Empire were to attack the Federation, do you really think the Republic wouldn’t take the opportunity to make deep strikes into the Empire to liberate more of our people? Do you think the Empire doesn’t know that, and so cannot afford to take an aggressive stance toward the Federation, even now?

There is no downside here for the Federation… except in the issue of ego, and twisted fefes. Unless, again, the Federation was actively planning a full-scale invasion of the State.

I’m sure “Trillions of Federation Matari” are thrilled to hear you marginalize and dismiss them and their concerns, and treat them as nothing more than warm bodies for the economic machine. Since, you know, being nothing more than labor with no say in our government has always been so popular among our people.

Always a great move in a putative democracy.

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Authoritarians lashing out because of bruised egos?

Yes.

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I don’t find that analysis convincing. The President needs the support of the Federal Security Council and the Federation’s wider political-security complex for decisions this big. They would not provide such support if the treaty does not offer more of an upside than you are prepared to contemplate. They might even have pressured her into signing this treaty, because it will make her re-election campaign in YC 127 much harder. Calling it an electoral death sentence might be an exaggeration but not by much.

Exactly what that upside is, is unclear. It could be a combination of significant economic privileges (I think you wrote those off too lightly) and carte blanche for the Federation to take aggressive action in its sphere of influence (which is not limited to the State).

I don’t. The Federation’s non-heretical trade opportunities within the Empire have already existed—that’s one of the reasons the Empire got so angry at the Federation for imposing trade sanctions and freezing trade after the Empire’s forces did things like shelling the victims of terrorist attacks, and assaulting a planetary population over capsuleer disobedience.

That trade was already an option. It didn’t need any new agreements, only the lowering of sanctions the Federation had imposed unilaterally… over matters of principle that have not been addressed. The only expansion opportunities would be in the sectors the Empire has traditionally not allowed. And they still won’t allow them, because those trade sectors would introduce unsanctioned ideologies.

And yet, the Empire was never going to intervene on behalf of Syndicate, or the Serpentis. It’s only the State that had any kind of mutual defense agreements in place.

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I’m sure there are lots of opportunities that the Empire would tolerate and haven’t been pursued in practice for a variety of reasons, not least competition from State megacorporations.

There’s a benefit to knowing a rival isn’t going to take advantage while you’re sitting on someone, even if they haven’t agreed to defend the victim.

No, I consider the Republic to have been an unreliable ally and since its government has decided to abandon its treaties with the Federation that leaves the Federation free to pursue its own options to secure its own interests in a new political paradigm that the Republic itself through its own choices has created.

If the Republic was a serious about an intention of Federal military intervention against the Empire then it had other options to promote that – chief among them seeking to broker a peace between the Federation and the State so that the Federation is free to do so. So far however the Republic appears to have no interest in doing so.

That may always be an option in the future but until such time as the war with the State is resolved then it’s always going to make sense for the Federation to seek rapprochement with the Empire until such time comes to pass.

And if you think this gives the Federation that assurance, I have a colony on Starkman Prime to sell you. If the Empire thinks they have the opportunity to strike, they will strike, treaties be damned.

I suppose the answer to that question lies in how long Federal representatives and Madam Ersilia Kor-Azor’s delegation have actually been negotiating for behind the scenes.

Well, considering the final ‘decision’ that’s come down so far is simply an order not to shoot Amarr Militia pilots, issued to only the Federal Militia…

Yeah, the President doesn’t really need any support to give that order, do they?

Quite so.

So as the resident ultranationalist grifter with my very own podcast where I sell herbal remedies like MindXpandr Plus 9000 to my audience I’m willing to try my own product and put the old tin-foil hat on to peddle some completely unhinged conspiracy theories.

So anyone else find how convenient it is that the Federation and Empire already have a treaty negotiated into its “advanced” stages practically good to go and ready to sign in under a month if it was meant to be a response to the Republic-State Airaken Summit?

It’s no simple ceasefire either, it’s described as a fully comprehensive treaty covering security, trade, and other issues such as sanctions and slavery. It stretches credulity that such a broad treaty could be so close to signing in just under a month when equally comprehensive treaties such as the Multi-World Trade Agreements or Federal member-state accession can take months if not years to work through where delegations negotiate and re-negotiate each and every point.

It’s much more plausible that the Federation-Empire treaty on the cards was something being negotiated well before recent events of the past month.

What I think happened was that the Federation and Empire were faced with a problem: how to sell such a transactional type of treaty to the Federal electorate when doing so with the Empire would be seen as a violation of Federal principles due to such issues as Imperial slavery which would cause a lot of pushback.

So a plan was formulated to make the Republic break its agreements with the Federation first. Ambassador Yun was fed some credible intelligence about Amarr spying in the State and the Amarr made sure when the Caldari looked for it they would evidence of that spying.

Ambassador Yun and the Republic probably thought they were going to score a potential coup against the Empire by pulling the State out of its orbit so they were eager to push through with the Airaken summit.

But the Amarr didn’t care about their military alliance with the State anymore when they had a much more valuable treaty in the works with the Federation.

What was essential and vital for the Federation also was they could not be seen as having made the first move in deals with the Empire. Doing so would have caused mass protests. However the Republic looking like they had reneged on partnership with the Federation first? That would cause resentment, anger, and feelings of betrayal in the Federation against Minmatar and the Republic. Feelings that would make a deal with the Empire a whole lot more palatable.

So the end result is the Republic and State look like they reneged on their treaties first forcing the Federation and Empire to make a deal with each other – a deal which just so conveniently happens to almost be ready to signed by both.

Then…

Damn, the mind expansion pills wore off.

Oh well, probably for the best. I was starting to have some pretty scary thoughts like the Dear President Aguard wasn’t the principled defender of democracy like she said during her election campaign but some kind of cynical career politician who’s fine paying lip service to principles and ideals in the pursuit of power and interstellar realpolitik.

Perish the thought!

Those mind expansion pills sure are one heck of a ride though. Good thing no one actually takes right-wing conspiracy theories seriously, I’d hate to live in a cluster where they’re actually true.

No, there probably aren’t any conspiracies and everything can be taken at face value. After all I don’t think the government or the news media would lie to me.

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Do the cluster a favor and just go bankrupt already.

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