# 8 Invention Fails in a Row

Inventing DC2s with a 38% probability - I had all 8 inventions fail. I’ve run another 8 to see if it happens again but the statistical probability of 8 fails with a 38% chance is low… maybe I should buy a lottery ticket?

Yes. Happens, I do a lot of inventions. It evens out in the long run. To feel better you can use a decryptor increasing the chance, if you only plan a few tries.

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Yeah. I might use a decryptor on the next run - I usually save them for more expensive BPs but it’s a good test, and I’m glad I’m not the only one - maybe you should buy a lottery ticket as well!

Make sure you balance the cost of the decryptor against the cost of the datacores saved - not against the value of the blueprints delivered. It makes little sense to spend 1 million ISK to save 500K.

A DCU2 invention consumes about 450K in datacores. With a 38% chance of success you are paying 1.2 million ISK/bpc on a long average. 120K/module invention cost.

A Parity decryptor will increase your chance to 57% at a cost of 1.5 million ISK. A successful invention gives you 13 runs instead of 10. Your expected cost per BPC is now 3.4 million ISK or 263K/module. Not a good investment. Better to train an additional level of Molecular and Nanite engineering!

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Doesn’t molecular enginnering as a kill just reduce manufacture time by 1% per level?

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Awesome - thank you

I have found that Eve’s RNG tends to be streaky. Do ten jobs, fail ten jobs. Do another ten have all ten succeed.

Generally with a large enough sample it does even out to the above formula but at times it is very frustrating.

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I think you’re forgetting that it still leaves you a 62% chance for it to fail, so any invention you do is already stacked against you from the beginning. In your example (math): 0.62^8 = 0.218 = 21.8% chance for 8 consecutive fails, which is still pretty high.

Inventions are ruled by RNG-gods and thus you are at their mercy, have you remembered to pray to them?, so is every thing else that are based on chance

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I sacrificed x2 D20s to them and slapped a Dungeon Master, I thought this would be sufficient.

Gotta slap, or at least chin-tickle, @CCP_Avalon for rnjesus to smile upon you.

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I think it’s 0.0218, which is only a 2.18% chance of failing 8 in a row. Pretty unlucky!

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Make an offering to Bob.

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0.62^8 = 0.021834 or a 2.1834% chance or total failure.

And while that looks “small” keep in mind that events like this are likely to happen to someone. That is, what are your chances of winning a gamble? Suppose the probability is 0.00001. Suppose 50,000 take the gamble, now what are the chances nobody wins? It is 0.99999^50,000 or 60.65%, that is there is a 39.3% chance that 1 or more people win the lottery. So depending on how you look at it the outcome is either unlikley or likely. Ex ante it is unlikely you’d see this result, ex ante there is a pretty good probability it has to happen to someone.

This thread turned out to be very helpful apart from seeing minute probability in play which is always valid - I did advance many skills for research / invention that have improved my odds - contributions have been welcome

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Maxing out the datacore skills will get you to 0.496 invention chance. If you install 200 jobs (10 jobs at 20x) you should get “close” to your expected value or 99.2 successes. Of course offloading 990 DCIIs is another matter.

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