Invention success rate broken?

This is how EVE defines 44.2% chance of success. So frustrating.

Damage Control FAIL #1

9 single run Invention attempts at a DCU II
3 ten run invention attempts at a T2 Web

This looks around right.
What’s the issue here?

Come back when you’ve run at least 100 separate 10 job slots with 10 Invention attempts at a DCU II.

The percentages work out over the long run. I’ve been doing invention for almost a year now and my results are very close to the base % outcomes. And also the improved success rates when using Decryptors for T2 ship hull BPCs.


A few inventions that completed this morning:


2 really good, 1 not so good, the rest very close to expected value.

with the upcoming success chance reduction by 45% should see more of these posts


Same source as Heard on missions channel ingame - SOE 45% reduction in LP nerf

@ISD_Buldath I think we have a troll!

Probably the same guy that’s been saying trigs will start to invade mission dungeons/rooms for the last few months.

Total troll.

This comes up every so often. Been a while since I’ve seen it though.

Random is random.

Each result doesn’t affect the next. So just because you’ve had 66 failures, doesn’t mean you’re now going to get 44 successes. Over a sufficiently large sample, it averages out. Your sample is nowhere near sufficiently large.

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Eve doesn’t define anything. Universal laws of mathematics do.

See also, dice don’t have memory.

That’s 44 out of 100, bud. No sh*t you’re going to have mostly failures.