This is how EVE defines 44.2% chance of success. So frustrating.

9 **single** run Invention attempts at a DCU II

3 ten run invention attempts at a T2 Web

This looks around right.

Whatâ€™s the issue here?

Come back when youâ€™ve run at least 100 separate 10 job slots with 10 Invention attempts at a DCU II.

The percentages work out over the long run. Iâ€™ve been doing invention for almost a year now and my results are very close to the base % outcomes. And also the improved success rates when using Decryptors for T2 ship hull BPCs.

A few inventions that completed this morning:

2 really good, 1 not so good, the rest very close to expected value.

with the upcoming success chance reduction by 45% should see more of these posts

Source?

Same source as Heard on missions channel ingame - SOE 45% reduction in LP nerf

@ISD_Buldath I think we have a troll!

Probably the same guy thatâ€™s been saying trigs will start to invade mission dungeons/rooms for the last few months.

Total troll.

This comes up every so often. Been a while since Iâ€™ve seen it though.

Random is random.

Each result doesnâ€™t affect the next. So just because youâ€™ve had 66 failures, doesnâ€™t mean youâ€™re now going to get 44 successes. Over a sufficiently large sample, it averages out. Your sample is nowhere near sufficiently large.

Eve doesnâ€™t define anything. Universal laws of mathematics do.

See also, dice donâ€™t have memory.

Thatâ€™s 44 out of 100, bud. No sh*t youâ€™re going to have mostly failures.

can someone tell what would be a reasonable large sample???

I mean for some (me) just wanting to invent for fun and personal use, with a run of 10 w40% success rate you should get 4.

Is there something in the mechanics that remembers iâ€™ve tried x runs of y blueprint, so over the next 90 attempts will end up right?

Itâ€™s like flipping a coin. Each time there is a 50-50 chance of heads or tails but you can get long runs of 1 or the other. As your sample size increases you will come closer to the expected value.

â€śA reasonably large sampleâ€ť - realistically, think of a very big number and donâ€™t be disappointed if it isnâ€™t big enough. And even then thereâ€™s no guarantee that it will end up as exactly 40% - itâ€™s a probability, not a guarantee.

Each invention is an **independent** event - there is no memory and not â€śit will make up for your disappointment laterâ€ť. This is very much like tossing a coin - 50% heads, 50% tails. If you get five heads in a row, then the chance of a Tail in the next toss is still 50%. What happened in the past doesnâ€™t have an impact in the future.

This is tossing dice, not drawing cards (card drawing isnâ€™t independent, each card drawn and discarded impacts the proportions of cards left - no fifth Ace!)

The **probabilities** of each outcome are predictable. If I have a 40% success rate, then if I do ten inventions, the chance of getting exactly four invention successes is 25%, the odds for 3 is 21%, for 5 itâ€™s 20%. (i.e. about two-thirds of the time Iâ€™ll get 3,4 or 5 successful inventions).

Critically, those ten runs are also independent of the next ten runs - or even â€śthe ten runs I also do at the same time in another invention slotâ€ť. That â€śinvention probabilityâ€ť is exactly that - the probability of **one** invention being a success.

## The whole table

Probability on N successes in 10 attempts at a 40% success rate.

Iâ€™m rounding the figures, so wonâ€™t add to 100.

p(0 succeed) = <1%

p(1 succeed) = 4%

p(2 succeed) = 12%

p(3 succeed) = 21%

p(4 succeed) = 25%

p(5 succeed) = 20%

p(6 succeed) = 11%

p(7 succeed) = 4%

p(8 succeed) = 1%

p(9 succeed) = <1%

p(all succeed) = 0.01%

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

There is no concept of â€śit will end up rightâ€ť. Sometimes you are lucky, sometimes you are unlucky it should balance out over time but you may just not be lucky. Thatâ€™s randomness for you.

Human Nature is that you tend to remember the Bad outcomes more strongly than the Good outcomes - which means you have a stronger â€śitâ€™s not being fair to meâ€ť feeling. But thatâ€™s just subjective - the universe doesnâ€™t care one way or the other.

Sorry.

And theyâ€™ve summed it up much more succinctly than me.

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