Invention skill success

Hi, IDK why but i’ve noticed since a very long time that skills don’t impact chance of success.
In my case, on the contrary : higher skill (all 5) = less chance
(i’m manufacturing ammo t2) so i supposed to have aprox 49,6, with max sills, more less 50/50 % of a chance.
But real % of invention output, on a big number (close to 15 000-20k!) is at the most 35% - (today’s output 30/100)
on other character, (skills 4 and 5) in theory 47,6 % - real output is aprox. 45% so quite close. (3-4k inventions)

Yes, Yes… I know how the maths, and how probability works, but i also know, that on a big sample output should follow theoretical 49,6%. And 15k-20k is a quite big number.

This mechanic doe’s not working properly (at least for maxed out character). CCP should check it.

1 Like

I can’t be bothered doing the calculations (my Degree was a long time ago), but Monte Carlo-ing it will shed some light:
So, throwing a quick spreadsheet together, doing 100 runs, about 7000 times at p=0.49, then looking at the range of outcomes, bang F9 a few times to see how values shift on each run - yep, that’s basically giving outcomes in the 30-70 range for each 100 run. You’ve hit a real outlier for that 30/100 - feels like a <0.1% sort of hit - but it’s not impossible. It’s sensitive to that underlying probability: p=0.48 is definitely more likely to give 30 than p=0.5.
Subjectively, I’m happy with this.

Yes, I’m a T2 industrialist: I’ve not felt there’s a systematic skew in the probabilities here.
People are just generally crap at having a good feel for the likelihood of Random Events and what is just a coincidence. There’s good evolutionary reasons for it (or we wouldn’t do it!).

It’s why Casinos make a modest profit can take insanely huge amounts of money from punters.

To quote Terry Pratchett:
Magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten. - Mort.

2 Likes