It’s a difficult call because it depends so much on the player base and how they perceive the value of the game. Also of the cash shop setup, which frankly EVE has always been bad at.
Take a look at Neverwinter/Star Trek Online from Cryptic. As programmers, they aren’t much more successful than CCP (ie., every new coding attempt results in pain and bugs all around). As marketers, and cash shop designers, they are miles ahead. So they can make pretty much everything in their game available in F2P, and still make money hand over fist from their cash shop design and interaction between the player base and competition to have the shinies.
EVE has an issue where the cash shop design, by comparison, was done by 6 year olds with crayons. They have a game design where acquiring shinies is an excellent way to get ganked. EVE is far more bottable and multiboxable. The player competition to ‘keep up with the Joneses’ is much less of a driver, since things like skins, character cosmetics, cool gear that won’t get blown up - all that is pretty much non-visible, not a sales driver.
For the type of game that it is, I think the Alpha’s have about the right amount of access. Enough to explore the game, drop a few bucks while they decide if they want to go big or go home. Not enough to become a dominant force. The L4 mission changes will prob be all the rollback they need… might even be too much.