TL/DR : no FW item can reach 6K isk/lp without killing its own market
o/ all,
The announcement of the lock-down by the Amarr and Minmatar militias of their own FW mission agents prompted a lot of support but also unfortunately led to some accusations ( if not trolling) saying we were all doing it to cash out our LP.
So I thought it would be interesting to do some research data to see the possible impact. Keep in mind, I am no market typhoon nor economist. So your remarks are more than welcome : they are needed 
Eve Online being a supply/demand economy, the price fluctuates according to those two parameters until a certain point. Indeed if an item reaches a too high isk/ratio, it turns into a skimming pricing where the customer ends up switching to another product.
Below is a spreadsheet made with the most lucrative FW TLF items and their alternatives. Why TLF ? Because that’s the only one I know and it’s also interesting since Minmil has been in low tier for months so it simulates what would happen if the LP supply runs dry :
With the agents locked down, the supply of LP will decrease. At tier V, 100K LP is obtained :
- in 5 minutes for a mission in a jackdaw
- in 20 minutes if running the ungated large plex alone ( good luck with that).
- in 30 minutes if running novice plexes alone
The plex time is theoretical because it doesn’t take into account the time needed to shoot the rat, find another plex, change system and the pvp factor. Keep in mind that plexing is a pvp activity so you can’t usually plex quietly without someone trying to kill you.
So without mass mission farming, there will be three consequences :
- The amount of LP in the market will be less overall and more spread around the year
- The won’t be massive market crashes provoked by the influx from missions
- The LP price ( and therefore the supply) will probably more balanced between the two militias since no market crash means a less extreme cyclical market.
Right now : people farm missions, market crashes, opposing militia LP becomes more attractive, people undock again in the opposing militia to plex until freeing the mission systems, mission runners arrive, oversupply, crash, switch, rince, repeat. Since the market is cyclical, the economic incentive to fight for a militia is also cyclical.
So what about the rumour you will cash out insane amount ?
Short answer : the only thing we had to do to cash out was to give up. If we don’t fight our tier stays low. We chose to mobilize so we would be insane to do all those efforts just to reach something we could achieve by doing nothing.
Long answer : customers are not prisoners of a product and can switch. If an item reaches a too high price, the customer will either switch for a product in the same category or just upgrade to the level of product above.
Items whose price is determined by other alternatives available :
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Navy frigates : in concurrence between them. For navy frigates, people can switch to other frigates. For instance the Vigil Fleet Issue and the Hookbill. People can also upgrade to pirate frigates.
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Navy Battleships : not really a market. Their isk/lp is either low and unprofitable or if their isk/lp becomes interesting for the seller, the buyer just switch to pirate battleships.
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Drones : at some point the T2 version has higher dps. So quickly the faction version price is not worth the boost to speed, tracking and tank.
Items who price is balanced by the existence of other LP store or sources of supplies :
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Half of the navy ships exist in regular empire LP stores so the price of the FW LP for those items can’t go above the threshold making those interesting for regular mission runners.
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Faction Ammo also exist in regular LP stores.
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Datacores can be passively farmed thanks to research agents and looted in data sites. An increase in price will probably lead to an increase of people doing those sites or running research agents.
Problematic items :
Those items are items whose price is only balanced by the existence of other FW stores. So in the short term, a LP supply dry in the Amarr/Minmatar won’t have an impact because of the existence of the Gallente/Caldari warzone. Long term if all factions lock down agents, there will be a problem.
Interestingly right now those prices are balanced thanks to the price of tags. Almost always, the less your LP is worth, the more your tags are worth.
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Navy Micro Auxiliary Power Core : exist only in FW stores. No alternatives, no upgrade.
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Navy Cap Booster : Idem
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Shield extenders : the Caldari and Minmatar FW stores balance themselves. If the lockdown is applied to all faction there will be a problem here : the only alternative is the Thukker Shield Extender and it’s an economical aberration.
Lonesome problematic item :
- Republic Fleet Target Painter : the only alternative for bling is the domination one.
Conclusion :
In the short-term, the Amarr and Minmatar FW LP stores will stabilize their markets since its cycles will be less extreme.
There won’t be an increase of the isk/lp ceiling since most items ( except the target painter) are balanced by alternative products, other LP stores and sources of supply.
Long term if all faction join the strike in a prolonged period of time :
- The thukker LP store will need some love to be a regulating alternative for the shield extenders.
- Navy Micro Auxiliary Power Core and Navy Booster should exist in other LP stores without a discount to play the role of a soft economic cap.
- Domination Target Painter should be added to the Angel LP store.
And maybe :
- Datacores research agents or data sites should be buffed if not enough pvpers join FW to plex.
- Navy Battleship should need a better discount so their price is lower and not in the same segment as pirate battleships.
Keep in mind that all my hypothesis rely on the present TLF situation. If more people join FW to pvp and plex ( which is our aim), the supply obtained through plexing will increase and affect the supply/demand dynamic. In this case, the price will balance itself internally to FW.
Ideally if more people join this gameplay, prices should stabilize under the market/utility ceiling. Supply would be also more balanced between militias since if the prices stabilize, Amarrs will stick to Amarr and Mataris will stick to Minmatar instead of switching sides.
What do you think ? Thanks for reading this wall of text