How do prices usually play out with holiday accelerators?

This year, I’m referring specifically to the Rogue Swarm and Youil (sic) Festival accelerators.

According to pure theory, the event has stopped, and now the supply is capped. However, two things seem to be happening with the Rogue Swarm’s at least (correct me if I’m wrong):

  • Supply seems to outweigh interest
  • It seems folks are finally getting around to putting their batches on the market - a delayed infusion so to speak. (Which contributes to the effect above.)

So how does this typically play out? Do prices generally do a steady fall until their expiration? Do they spike at some point because the market hits critical mass and they start drying up? Seems like the further time goes on, the less of them are able to be consumed. Also seems like they were pretty darn easy to come by; it would not surprise me if an influx keeps hitting the market every day until they all expire worthless.

Just curious for thoughts from folks who follow the market closely on things like this. Thanks!

Just watch the chart, and get your answer. It’s the same procedure as last year. :wink:

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This is interesting to me also. I as considering investing in them when they were cheap to acquire with the same reasoning that a cut-off of supply would lead to a reduction in availablility.

Someone with some decent economics knowledge enlighten us?

I specifically did not invest though, when I saw what happened to the rogue swarm ones. They ended up losing value quick and would have resulted in a net loss of investment.

Based on cursory observation from the previous event and the way the price is moving for the current accelerators:

  • Over the period that they drop in event sites the price gradually declines as stock builds up.

  • When the event ends the price spikes due to less being injected into the market.

  • Price then gradually goes down again as people move their stock to market / demand declines.

  • Near the end of their shelf life the price drops out completely as people try to dump any remaining stock.

This might not be accurate for yoiul accelerators as there is significantly less stock of these compared to the rogue swarm / crimson harvest ones.

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