Invention (what am I missing?)

HI all,

I just checked my last 25 jobs on invention (as that’s all the history allows me to check, suspect!) I know this is not a lot of data to reconcile my issue. However, not one of the 25 jobs met or exceeded the advertised potential success rate. In addition, the empirical evidence suggests that there has never been ANY invention job EVER to exceed the stated percentage. I invent a lot across multiple characters and use very large numbers of copies in one go (say 300) is this my problem?

  1. is there a way to check more than the last 25 jobs, does history only go back a limited amount of months?

  2. does the amount of copies invented at one time make a different e.g 10 or 30 ? I don’t think so but i am scratching my head as to wtf is going on?!!??

From speaking to people I know a lot just mindless invent and don’t keep an eye on stuff.

Hmm, the overall announced success rate quite accurately fits with my jobs. Sometimes I get lucky and a bit more, sometimes less, it evens out over time. The number of job runs or jobs doesn’t matter, each run has the same chance of success. With larger numbers this should match the theoretical rate. Maybe you are looking at the wrong numbers?

You need a way higher number than 25 to do acceptable statistics.

To check your invention outcomes, look at your job history and filter by invention. It appears to keep a month of data - way more than 25 for me. A recent run of good fortune show that outcomes can be better than expected:

I don’t keep track of my success rate but, subjectively, it seems reasonable - the results are mostly +3/-4 of 50% which is what I expect with level 5 skills.

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okay more data needed by the looks of things. I am going to do lower volume though.

40% success doesn’t mean that 4 of 10 or 40 of 100 will succeed. It means every run there is a 40% chance it will succeed. If you do 10 runs you could potentially end up with a 0% success rate, if you do 1000 runs your success rate will be closer to the advertised the percentage.

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