There’s cause for extremely guarded optimism re: activity in the last 2 months. ISK velocity, production, and destruction are all up ever-so-slightly.
That said… an increase in production from 2.52T to 2.56T over the last 10 days of July doesn’t offset the drop from 2.68T over the first 21 days of July. And that’s just the rolling average. If we smooth out the data to get monthly average totals, we wind up with:
June Production / Destruction:
Produced/Day: 2.75T
Destroyed/Day: 923B
July Production / Destruction:
Produced/Day: 2.51T
Destroyed/Day: 886B
That’s a drop of 8.73% in production, and 4.01% in destruction from June to July.
If you look at the ‘full’ year (ie: Jan 01-end of MER), the numbers are… a bit nastier. Your bump there, after all, is from the April low of 2.52T. May surged, and then we slumped again. But just to take the bigger trend, here’s the change from Jan:
Jan Production / Destruction averages:
Produced/Day: 3.26T
Destroyed/Day: 1.06T
So from Jan-Jul, we’ve got a loss of 22.92% of production, and 16.34% of destruction.
So… no, looking back over this year, it’s not an upwards trend. It’s about 50 days of growth, all lost in 10 days, with the rolling averages showing some uptick after. And even then, look at the actual numbers, not the averages:
That fainter line behind the averages? That’s the actual numbers, and that covers the period of the slight uptick you’re looking at after the May/Jun bounce. It’s about 2 weeks, and the rolling average is pulled up hard by the period from Jul 23 through Jul 25. (Side note: if you download the data, the file 0_produced_vs_mining_vs_destroyed.html is the one you want. It lets you zoom in on any part of the graphs, and gives actual #s on the mouseover.)
To make it clearer, here are those production numbers from the .csv for those last 2 weeks:
Jul 18: 2.33073E+12
Jul 19: 2.68767E+12
Jul 20: 2.78507E+12
Jul 21: 2.36567E+12
Jul 22: 2.38207E+12
Jul 23: 2.83069E+12 **
Jul 24: 2.85237E+12 **
Jul 25: 3.08177E+12 **
Jul 26: 2.49574E+12
Jul 27: 2.64891E+12
Jul 28: 2.3825E+12
Jul 29: 2.50312E+12
Jul 30: 2.55364E+12
Jul 31: 1.84907E+12
** - these 3 days support the entire stretch after them. Without them, your ‘upwards trend’ vanishes. They’re a weekend, and I don’t have the time to do a deep dive into the numbers to see what got built where (and it is possible, if you know how to read the data), but it’s possible, given the 500b differences between those days and the days around them, that there were 15-18 titans in build in various places.
2 dozen supercapitals(at most) over a single weekend shouldn’t be enough to make people overly optimistic.