Salvage Price Spike - What's Driving It?

[Sabriz_Adoudel]

A year ago I went deep speculating on various low-end salvage. I made a post at the time ( Salvage Futures - A Market Analysis (Full Disclosure: Vested Interest) ).

My analysis turned out not to hit particularly hard, and whilst I sold a bunch of stock at the height of prices, I was left with tens of billions of ISK tied up in salvage that was worth less now than at the time I purchased it.

Not wanting to waste market broker fees on multi-billion ISK sell orders, I left a lot of it up there, adjusting the order each 90 days. When Charred Micro Circuits fell to 1100/unit, I still had a sell order for about 1750000 units at 4400/unit.

Today, that order sold in its entirety to a single player.

Other players bought similarly non-competitively priced sell orders out in their entirety.

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I cannot see any recent announcements of game mechanic changes that would drive this, nor does the destruction of today’s fleet fight seem enough to merit this big a buyup of salvage.

Does anyone have any insights into what is going on?

[Krysenth]

Rumors of trig rigs probably. Or, depending on quantities below your order, XL structure rigs.

[Sabriz_Adoudel]

This is still happening. I posted another 1.5 million units and they also went at the new, higher price. Going to sit on the remaining few million CMC units I had.

XL structure rigs don’t use millions of units of specific salvages. Assuming they are built at ME 9 in a 2% rigged structure, they use around 107k units of each of a bunch of different salvages.

[Sabriz_Adoudel]

Update. This price spike was very temporary. Made me some serious ISK, but now prices are back to the old normal (as they were 2 weeks ago).

I’ve rebought the goods I sold and am still completely none the wiser as to why this happened, but hey, I will take it.

[Hei_Presto]

When did the trig sites start, couple of weeks ago? People trying those and not running normal sites. If correct then it shows a tightness in the market.

[Alvain_Awrthyr]

Ah, my fellow salvage whale, we meet again.

I am saddened to hear that your plan didn’t quite make you as rich as you had hoped for. I’m not reading the forums that often, but you seem to be one of the few people actually putting effort and analysis into topics.

Still sitting on so much salvage myself, I had obviously hoped for a sharper price increase. But my entries are so low that I can afford to sit on them forever. Sold around 40% of my stocks on the way up and down, still around 18 million units of different types of salvage left.

Made most of my money with moon goo speculation in the past months. Thought I did pretty well, but then everything went up even more. I am not actively monitoring game developments etc… so I basically just trade the charts, using support, resistance, volume and momentum as indicators.

I was hoping someone would know more about the salvage price increase, but I see that it’s still pretty much unexplained. Maybe just some speculative accumulation, aka whale wicks. I generally don’t have the patience to use buy orders, so I can understand that type of “market making.”

If you need a partner in some kind of market manipulation or accumulation scheme, feel free to reach out to me. I will probably never return as an active EVE player, just logging in one time a day to manage a few orders, but lacking any kind of direction. Most of my ISK is rotting in my wallet.

I was even thinking about starting some sick game theory play. Like those “send me ISK and I will return 2x the amount” thingies, but really going through with it, to see what people would do after testing the play with small amounts first. But the logical conclusion to that game is that you send a lot of small amounts, so it wouldn’t be the exciting social experiment I had hope for.

Yeah, I guess I am quite desperate to find some meaning in my virtual wealth…

[Sabriz_Adoudel]

@Alvain_Awrthyr

I was hoping someone would know more about the salvage price increase, but I see that it’s still pretty much unexplained. Maybe just some speculative accumulation, aka whale wicks. I generally don’t have the patience to use buy orders, so I can understand that type of “market making.”

I’ve come to the conclusion that it was someone with deep pockets speculating that EVE Down Under would release information that would spike salvage.

I believe that individual is down 20-40 billion ISK now, as EDU did not announce anything of the sort. I got about 12b of their loss, so I’m happy.

@Alvain_Awrthyr

I was even thinking about starting some sick game theory play. Like those “send me ISK and I will return 2x the amount” thingies, but really going through with it, to see what people would do after testing the play with small amounts first. But the logical conclusion to that game is that you send a lot of small amounts, so it wouldn’t be the exciting social experiment I had hope for.

Erotica 1 was probably the most successful ISK doubler ever. His approach involved setting up rules that no player could win, paying out all small amounts as though they were wins, getting those people to shill for him, and never, ever lying. Every word he said was technically true.

(His rules were set up so that you had to send ‘between A and B’ ISK, i.e. strictly more than A and strictly less than B, but you also had to send an amount of ISK listed in his bio - these conditions could not be simultaneously met).

He ended up getting banned, but not until after scamming more than half a trillion in this fashion (half a trillion I know of…)

[Siebmordan_Hur]

Erotica1…wasn’t he the guy with the “Bonus room” where he somehow induced ppl to cut off their own body parts?

[OId_SouI1 (OId SouI)]

Wishful thinking?

[Solonius_Rex]

@Siebmordan_Hur

Erotica1…wasn’t he the guy with the “Bonus room” where he somehow induced ppl to cut off their own body parts?

Bonus room, yes. Induced ppl to cut off their own body parts, no.

Remember, DJ funkybacon was the one i believe who actually asked someone to pour hot oil over his body for plex. The guy spent the night or so in the hospital. And yet Erotica1 gets banned for asking people to sing songs over skype? K.

[Alvain_Awrthyr]

@Sabriz_Adoudel

I’ve come to the conclusion that it was someone with deep pockets speculating that EVE Down Under would release information that would spike salvage.

I believe that individual is down 20-40 billion ISK now, as EDU did not announce anything of the sort. I got about 12b of their loss, so I’m happy.

Maybe the same guy that bought something worth 4 bil from me, and accidently paid around 40 bil by way of number fuckup. I probably would have sent it back, but he never contacted me, and I didn’t notice for a long time. Guess you have enough money if you don’t even try to get it back after such a mistake.

@Sabriz_Adoudel

Erotica 1 was probably the most successful ISK doubler ever. His approach involved setting up rules that no player could win, paying out all small amounts as though they were wins, getting those people to shill for him, and never, ever lying. Every word he said was technically true.

(His rules were set up so that you had to send ‘between A and B’ ISK, i.e. strictly more than A and strictly less than B, but you also had to send an amount of ISK listed in his bio - these conditions could not be simultaneously met).

He ended up getting banned, but not until after scamming more than half a trillion in this fashion (half a trillion I know of…)

Very interesting, I have read up on it a bit. Don’t think I would have the stomach for psychological games anyways. Not sending back those ISK is probably the “worst thing” I have ever done in EVE, and I was pretty active as a PVP pilot back in the day. Even then it was always as much fun giving killed players advice about their setups or some of the game mechanics, as it was killing them. Not in 0.0 tho, we don’t talk about what happens in 0.0…

Think I/we have derailed the thread a bit. Salvagewise the only thing I can see in the charts is a certain bottoming action on many of the salvage types I still have. So maybe just some aggressive speculative accumulation there, or as you have said, some “hopium” for salvage change announcements.