Trading Statistics done right

Marketplace Market Discussions
1

I did the work on an excel sheet with the market data from https://eve-marketdata.com/rank/items?sort=total_isk&direction=desc

The purpose of this is to demonstrate that:

  • There is a sweet spot where those items can be traded in large enough volume, and might have a margin.
  • Anything less than the sweet spot probably can’t earn much isk because the values traded and orders outstanding are too small.
  • Any item above the sweet spot probably has too small margin because of how few traded orders there are. For instance a Keepstar sold for 280B. But this item only had 1 sale per day on average…such an item has nearly NO trading margin.
  • Lastly, trading is not hauling, so this does not take into account differences in regional markets (nor should it).

Everything past this point is my stream of consciousness about the subject and some of the raw numbers at the conclusion.

There are only 397 in game items that trade at any volume over 1000 units a day, and 1Billion in value of trade a day.

I think even 1000 units a day is too liberal, it might need to be 10,000 units a day to even get a few sales…

So there’s a very SMALL pool of tradeable items per day to earn even close to 1B a day. In my estimation.

If we cut it off at 10,000 orders a day, there’s only 145 tradedable items that moved 1B isk a day.

There’s only 66 items in the game that have more than 10,000 orders, and more than 10B in daily trading value.

If those 66 items are not of a greater than 5-8% margin between sells and buys, then the margin trading method won’t really be an option there either.

Basically. let’s say you need to move 10B in product a day to make your margin trades…

Well we don’t have a big enough pool with the 66, and they probably are close in margin anyway, so let’s generally say we want MORE than 1,000 but less than 10,000 orders, and MORE than 500m and less than 10B in daily value.

ACTUALLY

We’ll raise the cap to 20B daily trading value. Because I assume anything over 20B in trading value and under 10,000 orders is going to already be pretty tight margins.

There are 145 Tradable items in this category that you can POSSIBLY make money on.

There’s a total traded value of 832Billion isk per day in these items.

2

I wanted to emphasize this.

In the sweet spot there is ONLY 832 Billion isk worth of trades a day.

So as a margin trader, how much of that do you think can be margin traded? How many other traders can trade that?

And how many margins can be traded until you squeeze out the margin?

These are the HARD FACTS, the supreme GOD that rules over any trader’s life.

3

Try the website adam4eve, it’s the most awesome trading tool I saw so far.

4

I’ve used it for some things but this is more for the use of determining what’s even possible per daily income…

5

Interesting, but you are wrong to focus on number of trades per day. At te end of the year, your profit did not come from amount of trades concluded, but amount of ISK shifted. A ship that trades only five units per day can give you exactly the same profit as ammunition that shifts hundreds of thousands of units.

What would be interesting to consider is the amount of competition. You assume that the competition is a linear function of ISK volume for an item, but that is not quite so. Sometimes one is lucky to find items that shift a lot of ISK, but few traders are into it. And it is very hard to measure.

6

I didn’t only focus on amount of trades though, I constrained the trades based on two brackets, price AND number of trades.

I excluded low trades with low prices.

And I excluded higher trades with higher prices.

I also excluded lower trade volumes with higher prices if the low volume was unreasonably low. Like you aren’t going to flip a Keepstar.

Anyway kinda moot if Adam4Eve does it already. I just haven’t had time to look it over.

1 Like
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Keep in mind that since there are many, many people who make billions per day trading… then they are obviously doing it on something, yes? So running an analysis that says “There aren’t many things to trade for high profit” runs into the little problem of reality disagreeing with the theoretical analysis.

When reality disagrees with your ‘hard facts’, it’s time to check your facts.

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