Please allow me to discuss some latest findings regarding Drifter Hive systems. I will also propose a joint research effort of a limited scope, to clarify some open questions regarding the connection between Triglavian invasions and Drifter Hive systems.
Yesterday I encountered a destroyed Triglavian Collective frigate in one of the five Drifter Hive systems (J164710) for the very first time. It was a quiet and lonely wreck, marked by its supposed killer, a capsuleer named Tora Hi. It was drifting between the rubbles of one of the Hive’s anomalies. - Was that a significant finding?
Given the fact that Drifters, who are assumed to use those five Hive systems as operative staging areas, are considered high value targets to the Triglavians and vice versa, one could muse that the so far quiet Hive systems will play a more significant role in the future. For some time now, a significant increase of the Hive systems’ wormhole formation rate has been observed. And it is still unknown, how Triglavian forces identify their foothold systems, though efforts have been made already. It is also unclear, how the Drifter forces coordinate their resources in the ongoing conflict with the Triglavian Conclave.
I propose that we look deeper into the relationship between the greatly increased number of unidentified wormholes (uiWH) to the Drifter Hive systems and Triglavian invasions. With the increased number of wormholes to Redoubt (J174618), Barbican (J110145), Vidette (J164710), Sentinel (J055520), and Conflux (J200727), I took the chance and did a preliminary statistical survey into the target regions of the Hive system wormholes. My goal was an anwer to very preliminary questions: Where do the wormholes primarily lead to? Do the target systems’ regions differ significantly from a random distribution across known space? The data base consists of 335 scanned signatures from all five Drifter Hive systems within six standard days.
First of all, every Hive system now has a recurring static to C1 to C6 wormholes (Z647, D382, O477, Y683, N062, R474). Secondly, there is no suspicious distribution of Drifter Hive exits across different regions when controling for security level (see first graph at the bottom). Likewise, regions dominated by a certain political faction are not disproportionally targeted. Thirdly, so far there is no indication, that the five Drifter Hive systems share their target regions in any specific pattern, e.g. there is no indication, that Conflux does focus on the Domain region etc. (see second graph below). However, fourthly, when comparing the distribution of Drifter Hive wormhole exits by regions to the distribution of all solar systems by region, a slight difference becomes visible. The last graph below indicates that the drifter wormholes (bright color) might not completely follow the random distribution of the existing solar systems by region (dark color). You can see which regions had been disproportionally targeted by the Hive systems. A statistical test reveals that both distributions are rather independent, but its significant is weak. There are not sufficient observations for a strong empirical decision.
The conclusion at this point is, that Drifter Hive system wormhole exits are not randomly generated and that a system’s security status or afiliation to a political faction is unlikely of relevance when a wormhole opens up. So, if Drifter Hive exits are not randomly distributed, what are the relevant criteria?
Joint Research Effort / Need for Help
In our present situation between Drifters and the Triglavian Collective I believe that it is worth to invest a bit more time into the nature of Drifter Hive system exits. Therefor I would like to work on a stronger empirical basis with your help. I need two teams of capsuleers, working independently or in small teams on a flexible time schedule for about a week:
- Team K-Space is supposed to visit and observe all systems affected by a Triglavian invasion over the time of seven days. Every 24 hours, all unidentified wormholes within every affected system must be recorded and classified.
- Team W-Space is supposed to probe and record all exits from within the five Drifter Hive systems every 24 hours. The record must include the full signature (e.g. ADA-889), the security level of every target system (High Sec, Low Sec, Null Sec, Wormhole Space), and at least a visual classification of the wormholes’ target regions (e.g. Domain, Lonetrek, Metropolis).
Expected results are:
- Statisticly robust decision about the random distribution of Drifter Hive system exits.
- Insight into any correlation between Hive exits and Triglavian invasions.
- Statistical evidence about other possible correlations on regional level.
If you want to participate, please sign up here or send me an eveMail. I will organize the process, if the research group is large enough to share the workload. And please forward this request to pilots young and experienced alike.
Itsukame-Zainou Hyperspatial Inquiries Ltd.
Arataka Research Consortium