Esteemed capsuleer community;
Since the fall of Raravoss, my team together with capsuleers has worked on a prediction system for Triglavian invasions. We believe we can now to a great precision predict most stars at highest risk, and have preliminary understanding on the pace of invasions as well as their locations.
Locations of invasions appear basically random over CONCORD-patrolled space. Timing suggests the invaders have the capability of launching a certain number of invasions inside a certain period of time, allowing a prediction of approximate risk of at a given time based on times of previous invasions. The systems were so-called “liminalities” have happened are of a particular small subset of star types, which observation is also confirmed by translations of Triglavian messages.
We publish a regular risk estimate update at http://tinyurl.com/harvestrisk. Please note that as CONCORD as is offers no alert feed for invasions, the systems under invasion are manually updated and there will be delays when the team is busy or asleep. The new incidence risk estimate updates automatically and can be used until the next invasion event (after which it is incorrect, since it does not know about the new incidence before one of us inputs that data).
This Circle takes no responsibility for possible errors in the models or data leading to bad strategic decisions. Use at your own risk.
Sky Seolec, PhD (Sb.)
On behalf of
Displaced Discoveries Temporary Circle