Observations and predictions of Triglavian invasions

Fiction Portal Intergalactic Summit
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Esteemed capsuleer community;

Since the fall of Raravoss, my team together with capsuleers has worked on a prediction system for Triglavian invasions. We believe we can now to a great precision predict most stars at highest risk, and have preliminary understanding on the pace of invasions as well as their locations.

Locations of invasions appear basically random over CONCORD-patrolled space. Timing suggests the invaders have the capability of launching a certain number of invasions inside a certain period of time, allowing a prediction of approximate risk of at a given time based on times of previous invasions. The systems were so-called “liminalities” have happened are of a particular small subset of star types, which observation is also confirmed by translations of Triglavian messages.

We publish a regular risk estimate update at http://tinyurl.com/harvestrisk. Please note that as CONCORD as is offers no alert feed for invasions, the systems under invasion are manually updated and there will be delays when the team is busy or asleep. The new incidence risk estimate updates automatically and can be used until the next invasion event (after which it is incorrect, since it does not know about the new incidence before one of us inputs that data).

This Circle takes no responsibility for possible errors in the models or data leading to bad strategic decisions. Use at your own risk.

Sky Seolec, PhD (Sb.)
On behalf of
Displaced Discoveries Temporary Circle
Floseswin, Metropolis

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Thank you (and your team) for your work.

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Neatly presented information. Thanks for your work.

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Thank you for the kind words.

Based on this data, some of my group hypothesize that the way the Triglavians access our space is through some kind of a link - wormhole or an unknown type of “conduit”, we do not know - they cannot completely control. The data fits a system where they have a certain number of links that open periodically and to a pretty much random solar systems in our space. (The period being something like 68 hours but with a fair bit of randomness to it, and some clustering of openings to adjacent systems has been observed.)

This suggests the Triglavians might be using a very unstable link to exit to space that is largely unknown to them. After exiting, it seems the main link closes and they live mainly off the resources in the system. Evacuations back through the same link also seem to occur only inside a certain time period after the previous activation of the same link, suggesting they can no more withdraw than they can attack at will.

What drives them to attempt an invasion over such a hazardous link is a question for much coffee room talk but obviously we until diplomatic contact is properly established we are unlikely to know for certain.

This periodicity allows us to give predictions on the appearance and withdrawal of Triglavian forces, however.

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Can I offer my assistance in your project?
I’ve dedicated the last two years studying wormholes formations and is currently making a study on the uses of gravitation by the Triglavians.

Please do contact me if you are interrested.

We are currently surveying gravitational changes in raravoss.

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Yes, we have theorised that the Abyss may be linked to the Dead Storms of Detorid, and that the weather we see there is similar in nature. It may be that there are micro fractures in the fabric of space cause these from time to time. The fractures repair themselves after a time so making a route available intermittently. They do not get to choose where the route leads, or for how long.

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We have followed the gravitational study in Raravoss with great interest. It is very well out of our core competences (not that this data collection is not too, but it’s at least in methodology somewhat similar to psychological epidemiology).

What my group can do is the data collection and analysis. We can say, there is a pattern here, or there is no pattern there, or this explanation fits the observation or that does not. What we lack is capability to interpret the results in the context of other knowledge of the Triglavians - as I said, the level we achieve in that is that of coffee room talk.

What we would most benefit from this would be interpretation by those with more background in this and in space/time phenomena in general.

Like this.

Incidentally, we had a team down in Detorid for a bit last year, sticking observation equipment on capsuleer ships moving about the region. At that time, no changes in the phenomena in the region were observed.

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To be honest, as the project discovery have proven time and time again, a large group opinion is often more accurate than the opinion of one expert.

And I consider having a profane point of view is a great way to avoid confirmations bias and blindspot.

if you have a platform, channel or other preferred mean of communication, I can also help you as a consultant and I’ll be extremely glad to teach you about this science field.

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The Storms are elusive and reports are few, usually from travelers who happen to to be passing through at the time. I don’t think we can detect a Triglavian Invasion ahead of time, other than pattern analysis of where we think its likely. Their technology, as in the Abyssal gate network and other devices, may be able to detect stresses forming. They have long experience of Abyssal space and it it appears to be relatively small compared to New Eden. Once a possible stress point is detected some kind of device based on the Zero Point Mass Entangler might be used to exploit it and tear a hole. We do not have that kind of technology available. CONCORD were able to detect spikes, but those may have been caused by Drifters entering the Abyss from New Eden. It would necessitate a substantial amount of work to incorporate such technology into our star gate network, and I am dubious whether it would help at this stage. The conduits that form in invaded systems are random and, once active, only last for a few minutes at best.

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that said, we can still try, develop new technologies and even if we don’t manage to predict with exactitude, improving detection would allow pro-Edencom to better prepare and mobilize ressources.

And if triglavians adapts to this, it would be a good opportunity to learn more how they react to new data.

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Sadly, being a small circle of academics in exile from a war-torn planet taking shelter under a capsuleer combat organization’s wings, we do not have the resources to run a wider collaboration circle, even informally. Despite its importance, this is for us a side project to keep us floating while another storm passes.

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I understand, if you want so, we can help you on this.
Once again, if you have questions, suggestions or informations, don’t hesitate to share it with everyone.

Thanks for your time and effort, and good luck to you and your circle.

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Thank you. Much appreciated. I will.

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I have shared my thoughts on this here:

I came to a similar conclusion. We may have overestimated the Triglavians ability to attack a target system. However it seems once they have established a foothold in a system they are able to create stable connections to their space.
In every System they attack it starts with the conduits. If we could find a way to disable their ability to open those, they would be unable to enter our space. I’ve heard about technology like cynojammers or systems that manipulate spacetime in capsuleers empire nullsec to “attract” wormholes. I think this already existing technology is a good way to start creating a device that blocks the formation of Triglavian conduits.

There were also some cases where the Triglavians may have used Stargates to invade neighboring systems (see Raravoss)
However in Aldik they make no attempts to attach neighboring systems.

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All my work seem to go toward this path too. The quantum flux generator being probably the most likely if my theory about the mass/energy ratio is right (so far it seem so).

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I wish you the best of luck. Projects like this give some hope.
EDENCOM overestimated the Triglavians. It seems like they have not figured out our Cyno technology yet, even while cooperating with Capsuleers that clearly know how to use it.
Let’s just hope they don’t!

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If my theory about Mass-Energy Ratio is correct, it’s very possible that they would have as much difficulties understanding our Cyno tech than us understanding their Abyssal gates.

furthermore, mutaplasmids are very powerful tools, but you need to program them carefully, that mean while the currently known mutaplasmids strains are stable enough to be of use as a bridge between our tech and their’s.
It may very well not be stable enough to alter larger structures and/or mechanisms.

yet.

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Two quick notes on what we feel are critical things as things got a little hectic:

There has been more than the expected number of triglavian invasions inside the past 12 hours or so. Our best guess currently is a return to the pattern of invasions from the start of these events; we can only confirm this earliest on Sunday, as that as long as it takes a cycle of the patterns to complete.

We believe now strongly that the Triglavian forces cannot enter our cluster at will when and where they choose, but that the attacks happen inside particular, cyclical time windows (which we, until about four hours ago, believed we could completely predict), and to a subset of known stars (which we as is cannot predict much at all, but are working on it).

During the past few weeks, attacks in Caldari space have concentrated on so-called “liminal candidate” systems, that is, those with a star type that the triglavians consider worth building their “harvesters” around. While the proportion of attacks in general between the nation states is still the same and statistically completely equivalent to their sized, the proportion of attacks on these risk stars is now not.

We have no idea now what that means, but if it is true and not just random, we advice being prepared to the possibility that triglavian control over their sites of emergence is increasing. (Based on success rate observations so far, concentrating critical attacks to Caldari space currently would make strategic sense.)

We are working on a more formal publication on the “attack windows” theory, but unfortunately there is so many things to do regarding this crisis, and so little time.

We are grateful to the Electus Matari alliance for first sheltering us during the storm on our homeworld, and now giving us the chance to help the capsuleer forces of Edencom at this dire time.

Sky Seolec, PhD (Sb.)
On behalf of
Displaced Discoveries Temporary Circle
Floseswin, Metropolis

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What can I do to help you in your researches? I’m at your service.

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Thank you.

We will try and have a public version of the systems invaded so far and the times that happened released by the end of this week. Anyone who wants to take a look at that is welcome to do so.

We are especially puzzled at this time about the triglavians trying again in systems where Edencom already has a minor presence due to earlier invasion; that is not a tactically sound decision under any circumstance we can think of and suggests they do not have a choice, and possibly that not all of our systems are possible invasion targets, instead of only some. Deciphering a pattern there has turned out to be much harder than the patterns for which stars are vulnerable for liminality and what times are likely to see a new invasion.

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