Anybody know how often escalations should be offered? I read they come from clearing combat anomaly sites, but I’ve cleared quite a few, and haven’t gotten one yet. If it’s that rare, I’ll find something else to do.
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It’s all RNG… so you better start praying to the god 
Some of the Combat Anomalies have a better chance to escalate than others do while some Anomalies won’t escalate at all.
Also Anomaly escalation is more than just getting a location to another site, if a Commander NPC spawns at the site that’s an escalation too.
Sooo, the chance for escalation basically depends on the site. Here’s a link with more info on Combat sites and escalations:
no, it’s a commander spawn.
@OP : both have circa 5% chance AFAIK.
But in reality it’s more complex than that. Some systems can’t escalate. Some can’t escalate in HS.
And it’s still an escalation.
From my experience Angel Hideaway Anomaly site when completed has never escalated with a DED location, however it does randomly spawn a Commander NPC.
That’s because you want to name it escalation.
But escalation refers to having a new entry in your journal (or agency).
Since a commander spawn does not imply a new entry in the agency, using “escalation” for this event is wrong. It’s wrong because it creates ambiguous terms in the language, which defeats its goal. if everything is “escalation”, then the term “escalation” loses its meaning and will just disappear from usage.
So you using a term that has a specific meaning in the game(through the UI), for an event that is not named this way in the game, is wrong. Maybe in game they both are “escalations” (eg the anomaly uses the same “escalation_chance” attribute for both), but from a player perspective it’s just not correct.
Thanks all for the replies.
I have already been using that EveUni wiki site, but it didn’t answer the question. Now that I know it’s ~5%, I’ll find something else to do, since the base task (clearing the original anomaly) is totally not worth my time.
@Anderson_Geten If you want to get technical; the correct term is Expedition (a.k.a. escalation) so you are no more right (or wrong) than DeMichael Crimson is.
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Please don’t take it as fact. It’s my approximate evaluation, not straight fact. You need mooooore data than I have to make a correct evaluation.
If that’s correct, and the “escalation” term does not appear in the game UI, then DMC is actually right and I am actually wrong - especially if the term escalation is used in the game mechanisms .
AFAIK expedition are only unrated escalation that lead to several sites ; while escalation can be either a single-site ded escalation, or a multi-site expedition. But maybe I’m factually wrong.
The anomalies you want to run (and get most profit from), regardless if you get expedition or not, is the < Faction > Refuge and/or Den. No-one can exactly tell you the exact chance of getting an expedition, except from CCP 
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hideway too ?
I’d never bother with hideaways, if it’s only to get an expedition, would only for the faction spawn.
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I can’t find my data on anom farming, but I think hideway, refuge, den, can lead to ded3. while refuge and den (is it?) can lead to ded4 and ded5.
I think last time I made a very easy one and got a ded4 close to jita, by accident.
Also.
^they are named escalations in the agency^
Refuge - chance for 4/10 DED
Den - chance for 5/10 DED
How about capital or Drifter escalations in WH, you dont get journal entry for those
I think there might be some dynamic system for escalation chance, based on how popular sites are and how populated the region.
It certainly is something like 5% for Gurista Hideaways/Refuges (4/10, never 3/10) and Dens(5/10).
But it feels like it is much higher for Sansha, up to 20%, at least in Kor-Azor. Hideaway(3/10), Refuge(4/10), Den(5/10).
IIRC Blood Hideaways escalate to 4/10 and Refuges/Dens to 5/10, and the chance is certainly higher than it is for Guristas (Kador).
I guess it depends on the rats.
Last notes I had, was doing a few guristas sites in the forge
3 hideways, 1 commander
10 refuges, 1 commander, 2 escalations
2 forlorn, nothing
4 den, nothing.
for this limited sample, there was 2 commanders out of 17 that can have one(hideways and refuges obviously can, den IIRC) , and 2 escalations out of 17 if hideway can, 15 if they can’t.
I had more but they were written on paper and I think I cleaned my table.
i had searched for that info, and iirc i found a reddit post where a guy had observed that the rate of 10/10 escalation doing havens was around 4%. I don’t know if it was true or not.
Your definition of Escalation is incorrect. What you’re describing is an Expedition gained from an escalation.
Escalation
noun
- a rapid increase; a rise.
- an increase in the intensity or seriousness of something; an intensification.
Anything can escalate. Since Commander NPC’s randomly spawn at the end of completing an Anomaly site and are not actually part of the regular NPC groups there, they are in fact “an escalation of violence” which is another type of escalation for the site.
huu… no.
You want to call it an escalation. But there is no reason to specifically call a commander spawn “an escalation” and there are reasons to not do so( the term is already used ingame and using it for something else is misleading)
remember that HS and NS escalations don’t follow the same mechanisms.
What’s hilarious is your childish attempt to make escalation mean something different simply due to your spitefulness towards me.
Commander NPC’s ARE NOT part of the regular NPC groups at Anomaly sites, they randomly spawn AT THE END which is an ESCALATION OF COMBAT for the site.