Question for Developers - Military Index & DED Escalations

Hello all,

I have two questions for the developers regarding the DED escalations occasionally awarded after completing a combat anomaly in a system, such as a Haven or Sanctum.

  1. I understand that there is a fixed percentage chance that completing sites such as an Angel Haven will subsequently lead to DED Escalation 10/10. Posts by various players estimate that this percentage is somewhere between 1.5% and 10%. My experience has been that Angel Havens seem to escalate to DED 10/10’s complexes at a rate somewhere close to 5%.

Q1) Could a developer specify what this percentage chance actually is?

  1. I have read a post which details the military index and says: quote “Every level of upgrade increases your chances of finding both a signature and a higher level DED complex.”

Q2) Is this quote entirely correct, so that a higher military index increase the percentage likelihood that the Angel Havens (for example) in a system will escalate into DED 10/10 complexes, or does the military index simply increase the number of combat anomalies that spawn in the system, while the percentage chance that any of these sites will escalate into DED complexes remains the same?

I would like to know the answer to these questions to discover whether a higher military index means that there is a higher percentage chance that the sites which exist in a system will escalate into DED complexes.

Thank you for your advice!

Yours Faithfully
StellarArtois V2

I’m no dev, but I can tell you that no dev is going to answer the question; any percentage chances are rng, so it varies from person to person how often they get escalations.

The military index does not increase the chances of finding more signatures by themselves, it does increase the frequency of spawning combat anomalies, it allows the sov holders to install upgrades in the IHUB which can increase the chances for sigs to spawn in the system.

And he’s not asking for personal chance but for coded chance.

Assuming of course that chance exists (he assumes that there is a constant x% chance)

It’s RNG therefore it’s a fixed chance. But the DEVS won’t ever reveal those stats and numbers.

That’s wrong.

With a sample size big enough it’s can be fairly accurately calculated what it is :wink:

“big enough” being over 1000 hours of farming ?

Not in hours, but number of sites run

1000 hours = ±3000 sites. (15k in super)

That would be a small sample size if you ask me. 10-15k sites run might get an acceptable result

No actually. RNG is a calculation and thus gives a fixed chance.

yeah indeed. And then it’s just faster to ask for devs if that number makes sense, before trying to get something that may or may not make sense.

You got it completely wrong.
When we say “loot is random” it means it involves RNG, NOT that the chance is the same with successive loots.
Which is actually not the case in several cases of loot in Eve.

show us a situation where that wouldn’t be the case.

Why ? You make a strong assumption, that is not verified.
You have to show us that the escalation probability is a constant one, not the opposite.

RNG based loot does not necessarily give a constant chance. It’s not related. You can have constant chance without RNG, and variable chance with RNG.

only if the rng calculation changes which it does not, it might be different per site type but other than that it’s fixed.

Here is an example of non-RNG based event that is constant per player :

“Each anomaly has a counter, when this counter reaches 20 a player on grid is awarded an escalation and the counter resets.”

Here is almost the same example, that does not involve RNG, and that is not a constant chance :

“Each anomaly has a counter, when this counter reaches 20 a player on grid is awarded an escalation if possible and the counter resets.”

The key here is “if possible”. Any data that refers to out-of-drop variables (eg current system, other players doing anoms, etc) will lead to chances being non-constant per player.

I’m certain that the probability of getting an escalation is a fixed chance; but that being said there are plentiful of ways to make such calculations very complex than just “roll a D10 and if you roll a 1 you succeed”


I made tests in HS and the escalation in HS are much more complex than what people believe.

especially, there the “probability of getting an escalation” is not a fixed chance.

But that is not how it works in EVE and more importantly, as you stated, would not be RNG.