Escalation/DED loot drop rate changed?

It might be just my impression, although I did talk to at least a few other people who run guristas DEDs and we have all come to a conclusion that the loot drop rate in DEDs has fallen massively in the past month. I myself have ran at least 30 escalations, 6/10 and 8/10 mostly and have concluded that 70% of them only yield overseer effects. Some people I talk with have told me that they have done even 10 DEDs in a row without getting anything other than overseer effects. This has been happening for about 1 month. Does anyone have similar or different experiences? Can CCP clarify whether this is a shadow nerf or have they posted anything about it and I don’t know?

Edit: Might have made the post in the wrong category, although not sure how much that matters.

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30 or 10 is insanely low number. It’s only RNG. Sometimes you get bad luck for long time sometimes you hit jackpoot few times a day

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I agree. Which is why I opened a thread to try and get more opinions and data from DED runners. I only felt this happen for about a month now.

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Interesting. I think it’s RNG at work - I recently had one escalation from over 50 Angel Refuges but that dropped me over 500m isk. Since then I have had 4 escalations from just over 20 sites but they were all in LS so I have no idea what the drops were :frowning:

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Look at it this way, the less it drops the more you get from it.

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Loot drop rate has definitely decreased, even over the last week or so.

more people run them so yes, the loot being shared decreases per person.

Can you link a source for this? How does more people running sites decrease loot? If drops are random then the amount of people running sites have no effect on drop chance.

I’ve suffered some losses recently, and I have had some great drops in sites since. Wonder if there is anything to that?

You are wrong . RNG does not imply independent values. That’s a big mistake many people make.

is a well known example of randomization with dependent values.

I think you have no idea what you are talking about. If I roll a dice hoping to get a 12, it doesnt matter how many other people are rolling a dice themselves. They don’t change my outcomes. Now if you can’t link a source on how EVE handles ded loot and whether its reduced by the active amount of players running sites then please quit posting nonsense.

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What does that even mean?

That does not change the outcome iff the result are independent.

I am answering to the person who made the post previous to mine. If you did not want an answer, why did you actually ask your question ?
And no, I am not willing to disclose what I found. Don’t trust me if you want, my answer was not for you to start with.

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Using the Russian roulette example, is there a way to elaborate on your idea of how the loot is allocated? Ie. Is it like playing RR, but instead of 1 person per gun chamber, there is 2? Same number of ‘rewards’ (1) but more people to share it between?

Grass is greener on the other side. I found that loot is better when you steal it from someone.

On many occasions someone elses overseer dropped 4-5 items, which I then borrowed, whereas I rarely see 2-3 items including OPE.

Idea that there is regional quota keeps popping up and I think it holds some truth. It may not be the only mechanism in play too. Some say you need to refit often for the game to think you switching playstyles.

CCP constantly watches what happens in-game, they keep an eye on stats and will adjust loot drops accordingly. Basically if more people are doing a certain type of game content and getting good rewards, they’ll stealth nerf it.

They have done that repeatedly over the 13 years that I’ve been playing this game, they have even said numerous times that they keep an eye on things and will adjust the tables as they see fit. When players notice it, it’s usually afterwards and eventually they come here to the forums and mention it, then a few yahoo’s will brush it under the table with a bunch of BS claiming it’s just a bad run of RNG.

Also remember that CCP is currently getting their jollies by making resources and rewards scarce.

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Some told me that the status with the pirats was useful.
Made the epic guristas, tested again : no difference.

It’s easier to claim ■■■■ than to actually make a point.

Could be true RNG and superstitious rituals that humans and animals invent.

We can only guess unless CCP releases a devblog which they won’t if it’s a balancing mechanism.

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True RNG ?
Even with a balancing mechanism it’s still true RNG.
RNG means (pseudo-)Random Number Generation, it does not talk about how those numbers are used but how they are produced.

In the gaming industry they know people are generally bad at understanding RNG. People get frustrated when they think the game f**s with them. For that reason most videogames do not have true RNG loot drop. They have multiple condition checks. Like pity timers, when every unlucky roll adds to your chance for a lucky, or when you plain get guaranteed reward at some point. Like Hearthstone packs.

So by true RNG I mean just the RNG without any additional mechanics. It may be pretty brutal, and as I mentioned people hate it. And devs know it, I heard it mentioned several times in dev talks on GDC channel.