So in looking at some of the past threads on the MERs I see that there are often comments about Goons doing something Bad™ because well, they have really high ISK from bounties, the mining by Goons sets the maximum value in the mining chart, and that generally this is a Horrible Situation™.
However, there is one statistics that goes completely unremarked. That statistic is the Net Import number. For the last three months Goons have imported, on net, somewhere in the neighborhood of 227 trillion ISK into Delve. To be clear on what this means. Goons are importing more goods into Delve than they are exporting to the tune of 227 trillion ISK. This number absolutely dwarfs the ISK value from bounties and the ISK value from mining. The net import number for November was 85.1 trillion ISK. Compared to the 9.75 trillion ISK in bounties and the 13.94 trillion ISK in NPC bounties and mining value Net Imports for November alone were 3.6x larger.
Since the significance of appears to be lost on those wringing their hands about Delve and Goons the implication of these numbers can be neatly summarized as, “Goons are in Delve getting rich and in the process are making lots of other players in New Eden rich too.” That is, when Goons import these goods they have to be bought and typically they are going to be bought from non-Goons. These transactions are such that they make the non-Goons better off. Those selling these goods could quite easily not sell the goods and keep the goods for themselves. But the fact that these transactions took place imply that these non-Goons valued the ISK more than they valued the goods.
So Goons have helped non-Goons get rich last month to the tune of 85.1 trillion ISK and for the last three months by an amount of 227 trillion ISK. That is, 85.1 trillion (or 227 trillion) ISK flowed out of Delve last month (the last 3 months) and into the wallets of mostly non-Goons. This can be put this way as well, all of those ISK bounties everyone is wringing their hands about…it all left Delve and went into the wallets of players outside of Delve…mostly non-Goons.
Full Disclosure: Yes, I am a member of Amok. so therefore a Goon. Yes you can go ahead and accuse me of being a “Goon Propagandist” however, I am also an economist and my comments are completely in line with the consensus view on trade, that trade makes both parties better off and that running a trade deficit is not bad (contrary to what the current U.S. President tweets when taking his morning dump).
Just one point of detail here: that is turnover, not profit - the goods collectively traded for those sums did not have zero cost, they had their own acquisition/production costs associated with them. So in fact the amounts by which the sellers have grown richer is much smaller (still far from trivial, I grant you.) I understand what you’re saying, and in principle I can’t fault it, but I had to point out this little detail - I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it was an honest oversight (perhaps from caffeine underdosage ) rather than a deliberate “propagandist” manipulation.
You are correct. In simple (simplistic?) terms the costs go out of the wallet of those making the goods, then the costs + profits flow back in. In adding up all the numbers from Delve, the amount of money people are “extracting” from Delve is less than the ISK value imported though. Granted Goons are undoubtedly making other money elsewhere as well and using that to fund the difference.
The point is though…that what Goons are doing is not just a benefit to Goons, but to quite a few others in addition.
Goons arent doing anything “bad”.
I dont think anyone is saying that.
Concern is rather whether CCP has overlooked something in design.
Goons notoriously and deservedly are the ultimate player litmus test, as they leverage the hell out of even the slightest crack in integrity of design.
In overall meta, what Goons are actually doing in Fortress Delve is probably one of the most interesting things happening in EVE atm. When Goons are becoming fabulously rich, and importing so much, everyone should be paying attention, including CCP.
We all already knew your affiliation.
No one blames you for being a Goon Propagandist, but we all know you are, and its very apparent from your posts. I wouldnt be surprised if you receive a monthly retainer for representing Goon economic interests on this board. If they currently arent paying you, you should ask that they do! You’ve certainly earned it.
That’s all fair and good. Atleast you put real effort into your forum content, albeit bias blinds you at times and you have a tendency to cherrypick/spin (whether deliberately tactically or in-deliberately cos of how you are used to arguing). I mean this as constructive criticism, not poo-pooing.
As to you being an economist, there are many schools of economic thought, of which you represent only one subjectively as you understand it. Economists are famous for being wrong, and rarely agreeing with another economist.
Goons have plenty of manufacture etc installations outside of Delve.
Makes more sense to buy basic materials outside of Delve, combine them in manufacture near the point of purchase, and ship that back to Delve after compression by manufacture, for further use in further manufacture in Delve proper.
This would create the large import figure, measured in isk, as collated by CCP according to average price of said refined/manufactured goods, compared to how much isk they are actually spending on buying basic resources outside of Delve, processed/manufactured, and therafter imported into Delve.
Goons create the value added, by combining those basic materials further themselves, at their own opportunity cost, outside of Delve, before shipping to Delve.
This also increases shipping efficiency, as requiring less volume than the basic materials would take, and simplifies providing security for fewer haulers.
I also expect Goons have a relatively small presence in J-space, and even from those, its simpler/cheaper to buy J-space resources off the wider market, than source/transport them themselves, especially for T3 manufacture, and ship them into Delve for future processing and/or use.
Heuristically, I think Goons are re-fitting into Delve built stockpiles of/for T2 and T3 fleet doctrines, escalated cap production and fortifying Delve with Citadels.
This is evidenced by the lack of export.
What else could they possibly be using so much import towards.
They lost the buffer of renters/allies from the Imperium days, (noticed they are largely crap/unreliable) and realized its better to focus on very well fitted core fleets of their own, and a fortified home, against their more numerous, less well fitted, and less centrally organised/reliably allied antagonists.
They are certainly building a great deal locally in Delve, out of the enormous import, and exporting almost none of it. They are also mining/ratting the hell out of Delve.
As I said in above post, the high value of the import, is likely because Goons are pre-manufacturing materials bought/sourced outside Delve, for less voluminous and easier defensible shipping back to Delve, for further incorporation into more advanced products upon arrival in Delve.
TLDR: The value of Delve import is high, because they are doing the value adding manufacture themselves, at their own opportunity cost, outside of Delve, before importing those products into Delve.
Thus, in opposition to what Teckos posed/calculated, the actual amount of isk Goons spent in markets outside of Delve, is only a fraction of the import value into Delve.
This, because CCPs data collection counts the average value of the imported good as it is, not the value of its constituent materials as bought from the market.
They didnt pay 227 trillion to non-Delve markets in the last three months.
They paid a fraction of that to buy raw materials, which they themselves added value to by manufacturing/combining them further outside of Delve, before import into Delve.
Thus creating a higher import value in the stats, than what they actually spent in isk on the raw materials to create that value stat.
The funnest things about Goons in EVE’s meta, is that you can always be sure there is a very good, thought-out, rational reason for whatever they are doing, even if its a feint/misdirection.
In other orgs it might be internal schisms, stupidity, laziness etc that leaves you scratching your head as to “why”, cos it makes no sense.
But with Goons, that almost never happens. All their actions are rational.
They may not always win, but very rarely is that loss a result of a mistake on their part.
In this case, Techos is trying to argue that Goons dumped 227 trillion isk on markets outside of Delve, whilst claiming he is not a Goon Propagandist.
But the reality is that Goons simply bought raw materials outside of Delve, manufactured/processed them outside of Delve, and themselves created the added value represented in the resultant import value to Fortress Delve.
Yes, they imported 227 trillion worth, but no, they did not dump 227 trillion on non-Delve markets to non-Goon players.
Its what I would have advised:
-1 Consolidate in a suitable/equitable/defensible Sov region.
-2 Rat/mine the hell out of it.
-3 Fortify/develop the region + ensuring sufficient fleet defense, especially for ratting.
-4 After that, in progressive stages as -3 is fulfilled, start dumping more and more isk into buying raw mats from non-NS markets, and manufacturing/compressing them further locally there, for shipping back into your regions core for further manufacture.
-5 Locally build a stockpile of T2/T3 hulls, and caps, from those mats, funded by merciless ratting, for core T2/T3 fleet doctrines capable of overpowering more numerous odds.
-6 Keep a low profile throughout the above, and neutral/non-aggressive diplomacy.
-7 Win. Result being a heavily fortified region, supported and defended by T2/T3 doctrine core fleets, creating a regional fortress/garrison that would take almost all of EVEs other powers combined to conquer in a siege campaign lasting years.
Only Goons know what they will do after that. There are many options. They could stay in Delve growing vertically until they run out of players to buy caps for, use their enormous wealth to destabilize markets/alliances anywhere else in EVE, setup another Goon enclave/region, corrupt opposing CEOs/executives etc.
Goons are once again in a position to dictate the future of EVE.
No, my argument is not trickle_ down it is noting the mutually beneficial nature of economic transactions, the generally positive sum nature of economic activity.
Yes, it is nothing but Goons buying from Goons. This is possibly the most idiotic assertion possible. Too bad you didn’t way a few more days it could take on the the title of dumbest thing written on the forums for the for 2018. Of course you’d have 364 more days to try and top it.
And are smaller than the imported numbers.
So, like I said, Goons are buying stuff outside of Delve (but somehow not buying any of it from non-Goons, that is just amazing, BTW that Goons can source everything in game without ever interacting with other players and Goons give each other massive discounts…this is indeed a special kind of paranoia). Tell us, how are Goons sourcing macherials without buying from those who live in the regions they drop in. Are Goons so good they have infiltrated every alliance in game and are essentially robbing them blind?
Opportunity cost is still opportunity cost. You should stop using words and phrases you don’t understand in the slightest.
That is some nice speculation, but even if it is true, Goons are still buying lots of stuff from non-Goons, despite your paranoid delusions.
Okay, so lets look at it this way. Goons go out, buy say 115 trillion ISK worth of stuff and then turn it into 227 trillion in goodies and import them to Delve. However, they could have just as easily sold that stuff on the market and earned that 112 trillion in add value. That they moved it to Delve still h as an effect on markets. That effect is to raise the prices of the various goods in question which still helps those who are building and selling outside of the game.
It is nearly impossible in a competitive economy to isolate the effects of one’s activities to oneself. An economy is like an ecosystem. The simplistic view is that when the lion kills and eats the antelope it affects just the lion and the antelope. It doesn’t it has effects through out the entire ecosystem.
Seriously? Okay, so you make something, and the inputs cost lets say 100 ISK. You want to tell me the value of what you just made is going to be less than 100 ISK? What about all that stuff about value added? Suddenly it is gone? Yes, of course, CCP calculates the value based on the market price (probably the median price). But nope that is not what Goons are doing, they are taking that 100 ISK and turning it into something worth 50 ISK and via this process of destroying the value inputs they are…going to…take over the game.
That is a serious case of confirmation bias you have there. Seriously Salvos you have such a tenacity for your beliefs it is astonishing. You’ll concoct even the most bizarre nonsense to justify holding onto your beliefs. The point still remains even if all your crazy nonsense is true. Goons are providing a benefit to the rest of the in game economy whether they want to or not. That was the basic point Adam Smith noted over 200 years ago when he noted that,
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.
In going about their business for their own self interest the butcher, brewer and the baker also provide a means for us to see to our own self-interest. By specializing in butchering meat, brewing beer, and baking bread and other similar goods, this allows us to each specialize in turn. And by specializing we become more productive and as a result earn more. And we can afford to get meat from the butcher, beer from the brewer and bread from the baker.
I know you are so awesome Salvos that you provide everything you need yourself. You grow your own cotton, pick it, turn it into clothe and make your own clothing. Grow you own wheat, harvest it, mill it, and along with the butter from the cows you milked and milk you churned, and the sugar cane (maybe sugar beets) you grew, harvested and refined into sugar, etc. you make your own bread. The rest of us though are highly specialized workers and we run perpetual trade deficits with our local grocery stores, restaurants, clothing stores, gas/petrol stations, etc. Our employers in turn run perpetual trade deficits with us. This is how market based economies work. We specialize in our work and run a trade surplus with our employers and in turn run trade deficits with just about everyone else.
Everyone can fake that number easily.
Just put a large number of PLEX in your PLEX vault and leave Delve towards a J-Space Wormhole. Make sure you have checked for activity, but actually there isn’t much to worry anyway. Drag PLEX from PLEX vault into cargohold while you are still invulnerable. Jump back through Wormhole. While still invulnerable drag PLEX back into PLEX vault.
Congratulations, you’ve just manipulated the MER by however many PLEX you had with you.
Rinse and repeat until you have compelling numbers. Only CCP can tell us if this is done by giving Export/Import statistics for J-space.
If CCP included the PLEX vault into their calculations, it could also mean that people are importing PLEX in order to keep their Rorquals running, which doesn’t mean at all that someone else was made rich.
A hint for that comes from looking at: http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/73542/1/5_trade.balance.m3.by.region.png which indicates that while Goons have a trade deficit two times larger than Deklein, the Trade in m3 deficit is only 13,7% of Deklein, meaning small, valueable stuff entering, such as PLEX.
Other possible explanations include Delve growing in numbers and people bring their stuff in to live there. For the past 3 months Goons got around 5000 new players, BIA got a 1000 more or so. Also the assumption that Goons only do business in Delve is wrong.
The Profits of Bounties and Mining are still overshadowing EVE. It is not Goons fault, they are just using the mechanics given to them. If it is anyones fault, then only so if the current mechanics, including the option for having Highsec in Nullsec, are bad for the game. And then it would be CCPs fault alone to allow for such mechanics. If so. And that is probably a metric too influenced by personal interest to really measure. Maybe if we had data for logged-in accounts per Month, paying Subscriptions and the likes, we could make more educated statements about that.
Are you deliberately misunderstanding? You don’t need to import anything for that. Just use any 1T ISK in PLEX that someone already has, jump back and forth a few times and you have influenced the MER. I’m not saying this is what is happening, but there is no doubt that Goons would do it.
Also I do read the MER and I was actually waiting a bit longer than expected for you to finally try to bring this up as an argument. What you fail to answer is the very small Trade m3 deficit compared to the deficit in ISK.
Overall, you are trying to prove a point here and fail to do so. What you suggest Goons are doing is something you can by no means find in the data we have. To remember: you suggesting that Goons spend 80 Trillions on products other people made. It’s a nice story, and why exactly should we believe it? Given that your interest here is clearly for CCP to not look into the matter of Bounties and Mining in Delve. To be fair, I understand that you had to try. But your explanation lacks any conviction and more importantly proof.
So at the moment we have for certain:
Possibility to influence the MER without any cost: YES. As I described.
Reality that in Delve Trillions of ISK are mined and ratted every month: YES. See report.
High value, low volume items entering Delve: YES. See report.
Your suggestions and the conclusions might sound nice for you, but until you have more than a nice story to tell, it falls flat under propaganda attempt. 4/10
P.S. I’m serious. Find actual proof and I will of course believe it.
zluq zabaa, expect your last very cogent post to be overwhelmed by many posts by the goon propaganda team. And if goons don’t crank up their machine, the only reason they have not is because they don’t care. If they know they have convinced decision-makers at CCP (the ones that who are not already goons) that the travesty occurring is not a real problem for them, then they can ignore your post.