Delve, Goons and the MERs

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 6:15pm

But it is batshit insane dude. If you wall yourself off from data to such an extent that nothing will get you change your mind that is pretty nutso.

Uhhhh you can’t disprove his statements. Not too him. Any evidence provided becomes proof of the conspiracy. So there is literally no evidence. None. Either it supports his claims, or it is tainted fruit provided by the conspirators themselves and is in turn proof of the conspiracy.

That is what is wrong with conspiracy theories. Talking about them like they are any old hypothesis simply does not work because they aren’t.

So what? We aren’t talking about a broken clock, we are talking about somebody who believes there is a vast secret conspiracy to somehow keep Goons on top and protect their RMT empire…so much so that a multi-million dollar corporation will kill itself doing so…and Goons RMT empire. It is just all completely nuts.

I never claimed otherwise.

Careful you’ll get lumped in with the rest of us conspirators soon.

Oh for the love of God…

What you don’t like ISK? And not only that they are importing vastly more in terms of ISK than their ratting income. To do that Goons must be creating considerable value elsewhere in the game too and using that ISK to fund the imports.

He was not stable to begin with given his belief in a conspiracy theory.

Believe what you want, but there is a problem with this, namely…

See, this is the danger of conspiracy thinking. You begin to see it every where. I am nobody in Goons. I know this will be waved off as well, but it is true. I moved over to Amok. because EXE went dormant and lots of EXE guys moved to Amok. Since we were aligned with Goons and I knew how they worked as a group and coalition and since they are quite active I decided to follow some of the EXE guys. That’s the great secret of how Teckos Pech became a Goon.

But the intent of my post is purely one of economics and perhaps to stir the pot a bit. I have seen people getting worried/upset by the MERs and Goon farming in Delve. Even I would look at the quickly and notice the the bar charts for mining and ratting and think, “Hmmm, will that be allowed to continue.” But the last one (November) I was looking at the ISK supply, and the numbers in more detail when I noticed the net imports number. I realized that this implied Goons are promoting alot of economic activity outside of Delve (i.e. beyond what they are doing). And that much of that activity was probably by non-Goons and non-Goon alts (227 trillion ISK worth of economic activity is an awful lot of economic activity for Goon alts…unless there are only Goons and Goon alts in game). I knew that given the natural inclination of “grrrr Goons” that making this post would likely get some replies. That’s it. All your theorizing about agendas, rorquals, etc…well they are wrong.

Conspiracy theory is not constructive posting ever. It is worse than trolling as it is not done for laughs or amusement, but because the person has views that dogmatic. Dinsdale will never change his views. Ever.

Salvos_Rhoska · January 4, 2018, 6:18pm

December MER:

Look at these figures.

Delve (ie: Goons) generates:

<1% of all EVE export.
21.4% of all EVE production. (28.5% excluding Forge)
34.7% of all EVE bounties.
41.3% of all EVE mining.
51.8% of all EVE import.

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 6:55pm

Better check again dude. You can download the raw data directly from the Dev Blog. Delve’s share of bounties is 14.44%. Even including Fountain and Querious we only get to 22.5%. Delve production is only 15.57% of the total. And including Fountain and Querious we get, 17.92%. As for exports, again your are off by a factor of 2 or more. For Delve exports are 2.28% and for DFQ it is 3.24%. For Imports again you are wrong. The numbers for Delve and DFQ are 2.84% and 4.07% respectively. Now for Net Imports the numbers for Delve and DFQ are 18.1% and 27.3% respectively. And for mining the two percentages are 22.45% and 26.32%. You are wrong on every single one of your numbers. Impressive.

Obviously.

No, we are witnessing what happens when a group takes advantage of their space and sets up a good environment to do so. There is no “control”. Nobody is telling me, a goon, to get out and mine. Nobody is telling me to get out and do anything. The Goon leadership lets me decide what I want to do in Delve to earn ISK.

And completely wrong. Let me guess you looked at net exports right? That number is not just < 1% it is zero.

Net exports is defined as:

Net Exports = max(0,Exports - Imports).

Since Exports - Imports is negative that equation gives us zero.

Really, downloading the raw data and looking at it takes all of about 2 minutes…but then you can’t be arsed.

No the problem is it is all wrong. Salvos screwed up and probably just eyeballed a chart of the top 20 regions. There are 64 regions in New Eden, so Salvos ignord about 70% of the regions. Salvos can’t read the MERs correctly. The top 20 regions are based on total trade value. Looking at the bar chart for bounties and we see the top 20 and the Forge is not there. Nor is Domain. Together those two regions do not even crack 1 trillion ISK. Even if we take the top 20 regions in terms of bounties Goons share is 19%. Even throwing in Fountain and Querious the share of ratting bounties is 28%. And it should be pointed out that Goons are not the only ones living in Fountain and Querious, so attributing all that ISK to Goons is incorrect.

Okay, you can’t just go and do this to just Goons. I’m sure it would please some players, but unless you literally hamper GSF players all Goons would do is re-locate if it were a region specific nerf and you’d have the the same “problem” (quotes indicate I’m not sure it is a problem to begin with since the numbers your post are based on are ■■■■■■■■).

Could you be a bit more specific? I don’t see the issue to be quite honest. NS gets the ISK. They use most of that ISK to buy stuff made not in NS that is then shipped to NS. How is that bad? Guaranteed if the game were to change so that NS could make it’s own stuff and NS cultures changed so that happened my guess is we’d see the HS industrialists on here complaining bitterly about how they’ve been shut out of the economy.

And next time…check the figures in another person’s post. Including mine. Please. Check my work. If I am wrong then fine, but don’t accept the numbers produced by others. Ever.

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 7:10pm

I did, IMO, they are all wrong. All of them. Well done.

Edit:

Yeah, just confirmed Salvos based his percentages on the top 20 regions graph he linked. Taking the Delve share of NPC bounties for those regions gives 34.42%. I am using the raw data whereas he is using the graph and the 0.3% difference is most likely due to rounding error.

Next time Salvos, buddy, down load the raw data. You’ll at least get the right numbers.

Dracvlad · January 4, 2018, 7:42pm

I know your history, I also know that economics interest you, and when I was in EXE I was on the Goon forums for a brief period and I know how it was setup. You felt something and expressed it, or read something on the forums, I merely thought and asked if you were worried about another uncalled for Rorqual change and that was your agenda, and if it was I agreed with it.

As for imports that may include the stuff from freighter ganks which is amusing in one sense, but it was evident that this is being pulled in to build stuff, a lot of stuff. As I said I have a lot of people in my existing alliance who are ex-Goons and many of them are setup in classic Goon fashion in terms of indy and stuff.

Conspiracy theories, stop that, it is all about power game play, I have been playing power game for a long time, I also GM’d a game, I know all the stuff about gaming the GM, done it myself and had people try to do it to me. To call Dinsdale insane because he points it out is kinda insane, but you are not insane.

I can be Grrr Goons if I want, however on the other hand I also think that they play this game very well and have often said they are a step above every one else. I don’t like PL/NC much either…

Well those numbers are not quite as scary, but show a very impressive organisation by the Goons which will still give them the dominance they want if they continue like this.

Black_Pedro · January 4, 2018, 7:52pm

CCP has increased production (the large increase in slope after the Nov. 2016 Rorqual changes):

and cranked open the nullsec bounty faucet with the May 2016 capital rebalance:

Both of these changes have approximated doubled the amount of ISK and goods flooding into the game on a daily basis.

The number of players playing the game hasn’t doubled since then (or increased at all), nor has the destruction rate increased.

If not bad, this at least is going to have destabilizing effects on the game as wealth accumulates, largely in nullsec, month after month, year after year increasing the gap between the veteran groups and newer ones. From a game design perspective, such an insurmountable entrenchment of the dominant players is a very bad thing and I maintain CCP is going to have to do something sooner or later.

Maybe sparking some sort of galactic war will be enough. I don’t see a path to it, but I really hope they have something up their sleeves to shake loose some of these assets they have been flooding the game with.

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 8:37pm

ISK growth is actually down on a historical basis, IMO. Again, I went in and looked at the growth of ISK in 2012 vs. today and it is about half relative to 2012. Also, the average daily change in ISK is down as well.

Number of players is not really the big thing when looking at inflation, ISK, etc. The big question is what is going on in the real economy vs. the nominal economy. If ISK grows “too fast” you get inflation. “Too slowly” you get deflation. “Too much” of either is Bad™ in that both cause GDP to collapse or at least start shrinking.

With too much inflation then investment becomes an issue which is the basis for future production. With too much deflation then consumer spending will collapse and there is nothing to support production.

Now the “too much”, “too fast” are in quotes because there are no set numbers here. You can’t say X% is always bad.

Not sure that is the case. ISK is essentially useless in and of itself. That is the nature of money. Money’s value is in facilitating trade. So I don’t see this issue. That ISK pretty much leaves those wallets and goes those who build stuff. Now who builds stuff can people people from HS, LS, NS, and in between (WHs I guess). We want to keep the real economy humming along, IMO. In looking at the data I’m not terribly worried.

As for things like groups becoming entrenched that worry is as old as the game, IMO. Yet the very groups people worry about often end up failing, getting evicted, etc.

Black_Pedro · January 4, 2018, 9:07pm

In absolute terms about twice as much ISK is entering the economy in 2017/18 than was in 2015/16 as I said. This is a direct result of the capital changes to nullsec meaning that new torrent of ISK is largely going to nullsec players.

Yes, as a growth of the money supply that is less than in the past when the total ISK may be lower, but that was also at a time when destruction as a fraction of ISK generation was much higher. Anyways why does it matter? CCP also cranked open the production faucets so there isn’t much inflation in most markets. The point I am making is that this opening of the wealth faucets occurred almost exclusively in nullsec and their stockpiling of wealth by the established powers each month is going to make it harder for new entrants to contest their dominance.

Again I am not talking about ISK, ISK is just a number. It is the actual, usable wealth accumulation and growing discrepancy that worries me. An insurmountable discrepancy in power is a hell of a corner to paint your sandbox game into. Building a game where the winners slowly turtle their way to complete victory is boring for everyone, even the victors.

Let’s hope I am wrong, but without significant, even drastic change a slow descent into stagnation is unavoidable at this point I think with the current aggression mechanics. At least that is my view on my pessimistic days.

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 10:00pm

So I updated a table I did in a previous thread on ISK growth rates…

growthrateISK_v2

No, not double more like 28% more than in 2016. It is double what we saw in 2014, but 2014 is kind of odd in that it has more days with negative ISK growth and the amount of ISK sunk out of the game was 2x to 3x higher than 2013 or 2015. Overall, the growth rate of ISK for 2017 does not look horribly out of whack relative to the other years.

Oh, 2012 is only a partial year going back only to 2/13/2012.

Again, you can check these for yourself and I encourage people to do this. I am not infallible and one wrong link could mess this all up.

As for the production faucet, there is ALOT of production in non-NS. Looking at December alone about 77 trillion ISK worth of stuff was produced in non-NS or about 46.7%. Now with alts some of that is done by people who produce in HS and then move it to NS. But still there is alot going on in HS. I have not looked at some of the older MERs to see if this is shifting.

And I find it amusing that people will often say, “We want people using their space, out there doing stuff. It is good for the game.” But when that happens–e.g. Goons, people then freak out. “OMG, look Goons are using their space!!!1!!!11!!” I suppose you can argue that “they are using it too much” or that the mechanics are promoting stagnation, but you probably won’t solve that with something like a Rorqual nerf or another nerf to ratting, especially when it is applied evenly vs. targeting a particular group. This is a very different argument than: ZOMG, look at Goons engaged in economic activity.

Edit: Added a critical “not” in there…typing too fast.

BTW, thanks BP for bringing some reasonableness back to the discussion.

Edit II: Regarding the “using their space” comment, back during Dominion one of the complaints I’d often see was along the lines of “There all these empty systems nobody uses.” These systems were often buffer systems that Dominon sov basically allowed. So a group might hold some space and then surround themselves with some empty systems as a way of helping to ward of attacks. Now you go to Delve and it is unusual to see an empty system.

But yes, it is possible that mechanics have allowed the pendulum to swing too far in this direction. But then Goons and Delve in the MERs is really a symptom, not a cause.

Black_Pedro · January 4, 2018, 10:32pm

A[quote=“Teckos_Pech, post:217, topic:47496”]
No, not double more like 28% more than in 2016.
[/quote]

We are still talking about two different things. Yes, the money supply increased about a quarter from 2016, but the absolute rate of ISK generated by bounties has doubled from 1T a day to 2T.

Which is the more relevant metric is up for discussion - and probably depends on what you are discussing - but what is true is that players are generating about twice the resources per capita today as compared to two years ago. Forget Goons, forget even nullsec, the fact CCP doubled the rate of resource generation but managed no increase in destruction worries me. Players have not adjusted to this increase in resources by upshipping and risking/fighting more, but rather are stockpiling.

Honestly, I think that has more to do with the sov/structure mechanics than any economic considerations, but a game where everything is so overproduced and stockpiled that nothing has value doesn’t seem like a very interesting one, nor does one where the incumbent alpha group has an insurmountable amount of wealth.

What would be nice is CCP Quant to add a regular “net asset worth” for all the goods in New Eden like he presented in Fanfest a few years ago. It would be nice to have a handle on how many assets we all are stockipiling in our hangers.

Teckos_Pech · January 4, 2018, 10:53pm

Well if the money supply does not grow along with the real economy we have that deflation problem. That is a macro issue.

The micro issue is how it grows and who is making it grow. The graph you posted does not go back very far, but you are correct that bounties have increased. What is interesting though it that 2015 was a a year with high growth in the over all money supply yet NPC bounties were smaller on a daily basis.

Some additional things to consider. In 2017 there were 157 days where the growth in the money supply from one day to the next was negative with a total of 247.6 trillion ISK leaving the game. This is much, much more than in 2015. In looking closely at your graph of the ISK sinks and sources it seems that the sinks have also increased too. Looks like incursion had a bit of drop too.

It is hard to say given that we don’t have long ranging time series on all these sub-components. Which is the problem with empirical work…we are always limited to the extent of the data we have.

I can see this point. Things might be “too safe”. Of course, is that a result of the mechanics or is it a result of emergent game play? I mean slapping an entosis link on a ship is not hard. Using that entosis link is not hard. Maybe making it “too easy” has had the perverse effect of leading alliances and coalitions to negotiate more…IDK, just tossing ■■■■ at the wall for people to either laugh at or take seriously.

Damn that would be a nice feature just in game. What, I got 3 billion in ■■■■…time to sell some of it!

Circumstantial_Evidence · January 4, 2018, 11:04pm

I want to like this… but, in the short term, I think it gives large groups a reason to take over the space of a much smaller group. From this change alone, the #1 power would have no reason to fight the #2 power and create the kind of “content” many would like to see. Large groups need an incentive to want to bring a fight to the doorstep of the next larger group. Every attacked group would blame this change for the loss of their previously ignored area.

What about something like the “Civilization” game’s Wonders of the World: only one of these could be built per region, each with unique effects in that region for the owning alliance, only one of each type could exist at the same time. They couldn’t be built within 2 maximum jump ranges of each other, making it impossible for some regions to have one of these, after the first one is built. (To save Dev time, It could be a special Fortizar-only service that takes weeks to bring online. The Fortizar would be marked on the star map.)

(a few ideas)
Capital production: -5% materials
NPC Bounties: +5%
Tech 2 production: -5% materials
Sub-capital production: -5% materials
Planetary Industry: +5%

A major coalition could easily take all of these benefits for themselves, ratting in one place and building in others. But I think it might lead to occasional conflicts with the 2nd most powerful group (and perhaps the 3rd most powerful at the same time,) because these regional bonus structures would be spread out.

Notification (to all pilots active in nullsec): [Alliance] has activated [money-making object] in [system]. It will be online in 14 days.

Avaelica_Kuershin · January 4, 2018, 11:40pm

One with finer detail than what is presently in place for individuals would be nice.
I can only identify 70% of my assets easily. Assets which for the most part, have been imported from hi sec.

Salvos_Rhoska · January 5, 2018, 9:06am

Touche.
Yes my numbers are from the graphic in MER, not raw data.

I think its still clear though, that Delve/Goons are out-mining, out-isking, out-producing and out-importing any other region.

o7 to them.
Its very impressive.

Teckos_Pech · January 5, 2018, 9:07am

Hey…we all make mistakes.

Salvos_Rhoska · January 5, 2018, 9:23am

Even huge wars have trouble sinking actual isk.
Its remarkably difficult to destroy isk in this game.
Afaik, leaving players are the largest sink, and arguably much of what is keeping inflation in check.

Forcing a 15% cost on Asset Safety without the grace period would go a long way towards that.

Teckos_Pech · January 5, 2018, 9:32am

We don’t need to sink ISK, that is not @Black_Pedro’s point. He is making a different point that NS is too safe and that Goon’s success is a symptom of the problem, not the problem.

You are looking at the symptom not the problem. ISK growth is not really that outrageous.

Edit: To be clear, my reading of BP’s point is that we have the wrong type of ISK growth. That it is heavily concentrated in NS vs. being more balanced. He maybe right, IDK. But as to overall ISK growth, I don’t see the problem.

Salvos_Rhoska · January 5, 2018, 9:51am

I understand you two are discussing what mechanics/systems have resulted in the Delve situation.

I find it concerning that players leaving is the greatest sink, and hence hedge against inflation. Leads to irrational situation whereby the more players leave, the healthier the isk economy.

From a medical perspective, it makes sense to treat a cancer patient with chemo therapy that also causes healthy cell attrition to save the patient. But it also collapses the immune system, making the patients health vulnerable to even small otherwise incidental problems.

In analogy, to justify such a treatment, that would mean that EVE is suffering from cancer. I find it counter-intuitive to rely largely on players/cells “dying” (ie: leaving EVE), for a healthy isk economy.

Teckos_Pech · January 5, 2018, 9:54am

Players have always left. If anything back when there were more players players leaving might have been an even bigger sink. So if you want the money supply to grow at least as fast as the real economy you’d have to take this into account. So this gets a great big yawn from me.

Yeah, that is idiotic in this case. If you try to nerf Just Delve Goons will just move. If you try to nerf Goons you’ll set a very, very bad precedent and lose a ■■■■ ton of players.

Your analogy is ■■■■.

Salvos_Rhoska · January 5, 2018, 9:58am

In this analogy, Goons would be a local infection that is benefiting and growing due to the chemo/attriton of cells/immune system that otherwise would regulate its growth.

I maintain its irrational that the isk economy relies on player attrition as its primary hedge against inflation. Sounds too much like killing the rest of the patient to keep one part of them alive.