Do not refund failed hypernet node fees

[Nicen_Jehr]

After blocking my thousandth Jita hypernet spammer I finally sat down and did the math. I’m not confident that I have the mechanics correct so I would like pointers to other people’s math too. I think sellers who purchase their own nodes receive that money back whether the offer succeeds or fails and if I have that correct, it’s a serious bit of leverage over buyers.

Tell me how I’ve got this wrong: (edit, spotted it, standby)
I have a ~400M Leopard to sell. It requires 64 hypernodes, or about 32M to list. I choose 75M for my node price. I buy four nodes. For now, assume the offer will not expire.

Outcome 1
I win, probability 50%.
My costs are a leopard, 32M in hypercores and 75*4=300M in nodes.
My benefits are a leopard and (75M * 8 = 600M) * (0.95 after hypernet relay fee=570M) isk.
My return is:

benefits - costs = leopard + 570M - leopard - 300M - 32M = 238M

Outcome 2
I lose, probability 50%.
My costs are a leopard, 32M in hypercores and 75*4=300M in nodes.
My benefits are (75M * 8 = 600M) * (0.95 after hypernet relay fee=570M) isk.
My return is:

benefits - costs = 570M - leopard - 300M - 32M = 238M - leopard

Expected return = (0.5 *outcome 1 return + 0.5 * outcome 2 return)
Expected return = (0.5 *238M + 0.5 * (238M-leopard))
Expected return = (119M + 119M - 0.5 * leopard
Expected return = (238M - 0.5 * leopard)

So if the offer completes, the seller stands to gain 238M and lose half a leopard on average, or about 20M expected return.
There is a high chance that the offer doesn’t complete, so when we stop assuming the offer completes, the seller’s return is going to drop. But I dont think it drops enough.

With 32M hypernode cost (and a reusable 300M bankroll for nodes) a seller who relists the item 15 times before it sells still has an expected return of 20M after spending 480M. Nope, flipped the minus

I have no objection to gambling or terrible deals, but I do object to the lack of risk on the seller’s side. Since there is such a low cost to the seller of a failed offer, there is very low incentive to pick a price that is likely to get buyers. So they pick a high price and retry many times with slightly lower prices. I am convinced this is the root cause of hypernet spam. Nope, it’s close enough that a couple relists wipe out profits

[edit: even after fixing the math I stil] propose solving the spam by significantly increasing the cost of failed offers and requiring hypernet sellers to make at least marginally attractive deals or get burned for it. Specifically, all isk put into nodes of a hypernet that expires should vanish permanently.

[Dale_Wells]

Just sounds like someone who’s bitter. People have fun doing it and no one but the person clicking is responsible for how they play.

[Nicen_Jehr]

I’ve bought exactly one hypernet node ever, from the buyer’s side the EV is always negative, so I have nothing to be bitter about. I don’t block hypernet sellers unless they repeat themselves or post many lines at once. But nine out of ten hypernet spammers I do block are advertising offers where they own half the nodes. Adding seller side risk to this scenario would reduce spam.