I know it’s impossible to predict exactly how the market will react due to changes, but how is the influx of more and more kinds of citadels along with the eventual phasing out of POSes going to influence the ice market? Will the demand and price of ice remain somewhere near its current position, or will the constant influx of citadels affect the demand for fuel blocks? I’m not familiar with the requirement for fuel of a citadel versus a POS, but it seems as if there are generally a smaller number of deployed citadels than there are currently deployed POSes. I know ice is still important for more than just fuel blocks, but they are an important resource extracted from ice. I just wanted to get an idea of whether ice mining characters should become more familiar with ore mining in the event that the ice market plummets, or if there is any sort of plan in place to keep the ice demand consistent with its current state.
I don’t think the refineries will have a large impact on the ice market. A lot depends on the fuel requirements for the new service modules and the composition of the new ores but I expect the number of structures required for moon mining and reactions may drop and those structures may require less fuel than the large POS they are replacing.
I also expect refinery bonuses will give us a modest improvement in reprocessing yield, resulting in a small increase in supply of ice products.
Ice supply is constrained by the 4 hour respawn timer so an increase in demand will push the price higher. This will cause some consolidation as marginal structures shut down, reducing demand and easing pressure on prices. Markets don’t need a “plan”, in fact they work best when you leave them alone!
Looking at the wrong thing really. There’s a much bigger pattern in terms of people seeking to complement turnover from small to medium level sp farms by means of ice mining. There’s regional differences, obviously, but the geo-economical and demographical curves are quite subject to change. Something to only increase should general demographics go up again after the summer (which, caveat, is not a given).
Ice is one of those things which functions as a benchmark of isk buffering patterns. As it is, I can see Ice developing a clear downwards price curve.
And if CCP should decide for moons to also yield ice, well, good luck 
The fun thing is that people believe that there’s such a thing as magic markets, while this is nothing but derived human behaviour, only in part choice based in relation to cognitive
though. Keep in mind that Ice as a market is becoming a playground for station traders who can no longer meet the budgetary demands of plex manipulation, following the inability to do so with the ore markets as there exists a duality in supply.
CCP wants the POS to go away since it is a safe haven in a war dec or if you get attacked just mining.
Example, you are out mining ICE and you manage to get away from gankers in low sec and head to your POS that you set up in system to mine. No problem. You did not fire one shot back and you head to your Citadel in system…oh well, you have to wait for the combat timer to click down before you can dock / tether. Same goes if an NPC rat attacks (at least after updates I have seen this twice) you have a combat timer.
They also want them to go away because I can research about 35% faster in a POS with a Hyasyoda Research Laboratory than in a Citadel - in High Sec.
I really think there is a group at CCP that says, you know, X is really working out too well…how can we NERF it to drive customers away?
Then why they update moon minig if they whant remove POS? Im new to game but as far as I know POS is needed to mine moons.
POS were introduced to the game in 2004 and maintaining compatibility with the 13 year old code places restrictions on what new features the developers can add to the game - it is time for a change. The term POS stands for “Player Owned Starbase” so it applies to the replacement structures as well.
For moon mining, the new structures that will replace POS are refineries https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/introducing-upwell-refineries/ they are expected as part of the winter expansion sometime between Eve Vegas (October) and the end of the year.
We aren’t just getting shiny new structures - the game play surrounding one of the most important activities in the game is changing completely.
This is the kind of disruptive change that keeps the game evolving - puts players back on the steep edge of the learning curve. I look forward to it - figuring out how to take advantage of disruption is part of the game I enjoy the most.
As far as ice is concerned - the refineries will consume fuel and, for the first time, actual miners will be required to harvest the ore. A miner can’t harvest moon material and ice at the same time - they’ll need to chose and value of the product will affect that choice. I don’t see the value of ice going down.
I’m interested to see how these changes pan out but I’m not sure miners will be choosing between ice and moon products. If the big alliances have any sense they’ll have alt mining fleets already set up ready to go. Other miners might get some scraps. I honestly don’t see ninja mining being a big thing though.
I’m sure there will be new opportunities , though not those envisioned in the original design (as usual in EvE :D)
Those ALT mining fleets will still have a choice - do they mine ice or ore, they can’t do both at the same time. Either existing miners spend more time mining or new players are attracted to the activity. Rising prices will encourage both - incentives matter!
Except doesn’t good intel, panic mode and large cyno fleets ready to drop mean relatively few actual people can run the alt fleets and clear the new belts very quickly in near safety?
These are genuine questions as I haven’t mined in quite some time.
Yes, but … they could clear the old belts just as safely - they need to choose. If the miners clearing the moon belts were new players it would have no impact on the current ice/ore harvest but I don’t think we’ll get an influx of new miners. More likely the moon belts will be mined by people who would otherwise be mining something else if the moon ores weren’t more valuable.
I’m not convinced they’ll need to choose between two, just hoover one then the other. Bit as with all these changes the outcome won’t settle until around 3 months in when people have their new routines settled.
Either way it gives me another citadel class to build if nothing else 
To get back on topic…
I do not believe that the profit of mining ICE will decrease overall, the market has always been a fickle mistress, while POS are finally getting the retirement they deserve, you also have to realize that something else shall be replacing them, so people will still need the ICE to make Fuel blocks or a similar item.
So don’t worry too much, the time for that will be when CCP release the Dev blog on the new refineries and the service modules for them, so we know how much stuff and fuel we will need to keep them running
This scenario will probably never happen, to much of an upset, after all you have to have something for people to go insane will doing, hence why i have a good selections of books and a very good chair 
Then why they update moon minig if they whant remove POS? Im new to game but as far as I know POS is needed to mine moons.
It is being updated specifically to get rid of the POS moon mining, the eventual goal is to remove POSes all together, and the terrible legacy code that goes along with them.
The Ore Anoms in NS respawn in the same system over and over, you can keep hoovering all you want and never run out.
The big question will be how much m3 will the Moon goo sites be, will it take a couple of hours in a few Rorqs or way more. If its only a couple of hours it not like that will have much of an affect on anything.
As for the OP, CCP are adding ice into the requirements for Boosters, WH Gas Reactions and Moon Goo reactions. I’m pretty sure they have done some calculations to try and even out the expected drop in POS fuel usage.
Pretty sure they expect the citadel duel use to compensate for loss of pos’s