I don’t think the refineries will have a large impact on the ice market. A lot depends on the fuel requirements for the new service modules and the composition of the new ores but I expect the number of structures required for moon mining and reactions may drop and those structures may require less fuel than the large POS they are replacing.
I also expect refinery bonuses will give us a modest improvement in reprocessing yield, resulting in a small increase in supply of ice products.
Ice supply is constrained by the 4 hour respawn timer so an increase in demand will push the price higher. This will cause some consolidation as marginal structures shut down, reducing demand and easing pressure on prices. Markets don’t need a “plan”, in fact they work best when you leave them alone!