Adding a couple Capital focused escalations to content that is sub-cap centric, imao, is broken. The drop rate for 10/10 escalations was low enough, without diluting the chances of obtaining them, with 3 new escalation types, 2 of which are aimed at Capital ship completion.
Taking an already low chance of obtaining a 10/10, down by 66% or more, I think was a poor design. 10/10s is a main source of income for many ratting types and the escalations aimed at Capital ships are near worthless because the risk involved with putting billions on the field for relatively poor loot chances.
Capital focused escalations should come from Capital content, not diluting sub cap content.
I don’t have to run these sites to tell you that.
Obviously they didn’t increase chance of 10/10 dropping an escalation, but now it can drop 3 different escalations instead of one. Two of them requiring capital ships.
If you cannot run the capital escalations, then this means that you get the escalation you want 3x less frequently than before.
Casinos nerfed my roulette winnings by introducing the double-zero and triple-zero. Thankfully I made a forum thread in 2004 complaining about my nerfed odds and the big Casinos on the Las Vegas Strip were like „whoa, you know this one post by this guy is totally right, he is The Main Character after all“ and there’s never been so much as a double-zero on any roulette wheel in the world since then.
You say obviously, but for me the new escalations are dropping much more often than the old escalations ever did; there was never an official number given but it was always estimated to be around a 5% chance of an escalation.
With 32 sites finished over the last couple of days I’ve received 1 old escalation and 5 new ones:
1/32 = 3.1% old
5/32 = 15.6% new
6/32 = 18.8% overall
So for me the rate of old style escalations hasn’t changed, but I have many more overall. I didn’t say that it was definitely the case and more numbers would give more accurate results, OP posted a statement with absolutely nothing to back it up, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to ask how they came to the conclusion.
I say obviously, because I just can’t believe they would do it the other way which would be a big buff. Nerf is much more likely.
From my experiences, this is what they did with data sites in lowsec. I may be wrong, but it feels like that the number of data site signatures in low didn’t change, but now there are AEGIS, SSC and Militia sites which can"t be done with a typical frigate. That made exploration a terrible experience. But I have no hard data for this. Once I realized the new state of exploration I don’t bother anymore.
I was quite surprised when I started getting them, I do wonder if they’ve just done it temporarily with them being newly released so that they can get feedback more quickly and that eventually they will reduce the odds.
The other possibility, which is only a guess, is that it won’t be as much of a problem soon; it looks as though once the new system upgrades come into play there will be a lot less systems upgraded so even with increased odds there could still be less escalations overall.
But as you say, no doubt it will be nerfed one way or another down the line.
It is reasonable to ask. Old chance of a 10/10 was about 7%, that was from observing and using 100s of site completion data. I haven’t done the same analysis on new site chance to drop, just assumed the old 10/10 chance stayed the same and they added 3 new types of sites you could get for that 7%. 10/10 chance was 7%, now there are 4 types of escalations you can get. Only the 10/10 is worthwhile. Hence the 66% drop guestimate.
So far, my off the cuff guestimate seems valid in my own experience, can’t say what others have experienced.
So far we seem to be getting quite different results, although as you mentioned the old % were worked out over 100s of sites so maybe at the moment it is just random luck and I’m due a long period of no escalations - probably right now after posting my stats!
I tracked them for a while back in 2022 and I was averaging 5.6% so fairly similar to your numbers, maybe I need to do it again.
One thing I have noticed is that so far although I seem to be getting a lot more escalations since the patch, in recent months my number of faction spawns has dropped significantly.
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