That’s because most people don’t understand derivatives, which is why, if a system like the one described in the above wall of text were to be introduced, it would have to be simple and understandable for the average player
But if everyone understands it, how are people supposed to make money from it? A system can’t be profitable if it has no losers. 
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The OP expects the NPC algorithm to be the loser.
100% true. The problem is that the loser is always the little guy. The stock market is completely rigged. We witnessed this recently with reddit. The powers that be squashed that ■■■■ quick.
*A few “little guys” made a profit. Then, it was back to business as usual.
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The problem I was trying to address with the original answer of ‘it needs to be simple enough to understand’ was that if this feature were to be modeled after a real derivatives contract from the real world, the feature would not get used because people do not understand it and they, therefore, do not understand the benefit to them, even if there is some intrinsic benefit.
OP, I mean this politely, but what is stopping you from providing this service, today?
Forget waiting for CCP to make game changes, this is a sandbox universe. There are in-game mechanics that make this possible. Of course with a little bit of player trust required, which is how the best stories begin.
Simply open up your Excel sheet or bust out a quick ESI-integrated webapp, and offer your broker services to fellow capsuleers. You now have created a futures market, one you can skim profit off the top – you aren’t running a charity after all – and your personal power, influence, and reputation as a businessman are now on the line. Do you keep things running smoothly? Do you give it time, then abscond with the escrow? Do you pay mercs to screw over people who are messing with you? Or do you lead a humble life, keeping the gears of the futures market turning?
You have item trade contracts, so in terms of in-game-mechanics you’re practically there. Have people set a date in the future, put in an ISK value offer and a in-game item demand for a bid. Or vice versa, for an ask. Have them register the contract with you – for a % fee of the total value of the contract, of course. And then freely distribute your list of “futures market” to other players (free advertising is great), providing some simple analyses of bid/ask spread, etc.
The common response I get from always pointing out “its a sandbox, make $DREAM your reality” is always “but its so much work”. In case that’s brought up, my response is always, “Well then that’s the reality check. It’s going to be a lot of work whether you do it or CCP does it, software engineers are expensive”.
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Honestly, this is golden. Best response yet. I’m fully familiarizing myself with the item trade contracts to try to figure out whether this might be viable with my idea.
What’s stopping me from making this a reality today? My real-life time constraints and my still lacking knowledge of how the contracts system works exactly. I can say for myself that I’ve familiarized myself with most of the UI in the game, however, it’s a lot more of an ask to fully understand how it all works together. For example, the way transaction history is recorded and how it works together with the contracts system.
Plus, on top of that, I’m not some kind of programming genius that can shake a spreadsheet out of their sleeve. It takes time to figure things out, which leads me back to point #1
Well, at least now you’re on a productive path. Identifying the challenges, and turning unknown-unknowns into known-unknowns is a good start. No one is asking you to have it done by 1700 today, so you can always go at your own pace. The pyramids weren’t built in a day.
Additionally, if you lack software development or programming skills, simply using your ISK may be a possible solution. I would check it with CCP if possible – a CSM member may be able to help. The FAQ in the developer portal says:
- Q) Can I charge people ISK (the in-game currency) for access to my application?
A) Yes
and
- Q) Am I allowed to collect donations from users of my application?
A) Yes, as long as they are purely voluntary. “Donations” may not be mandatory, and you cannot require a donation to unlock premium access or special items.
which doesn’t really cover:
- “paying” (solely with ISK) for someone to develop a spreadsheet/application for you, and
- pay-ISK-per-listing a “futures contract” on your futures exchange app/spreadsheet
I just wanted to make you aware. I doubt you’ll get in trouble but this is my way of wiping my hands clean of whatever happens down the line, in the unlikely case ToS comes into play somehow.
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Thanks very much for your reply and the words of support. I’ll need to do some more thinking and, as you say, turning unknown unknowns into known unknowns.
Also thanks for answering the questions I never knew I head ahead of time, much appreciated. 
You can pay someone isk to develop the spreadsheet that you need. If you look under services here, you can scroll and see ppl paying to have things created.
Oh while I’m here, happy cake day @Io_Koval
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Someone doesn’t understand how capitalism works 
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This has been a really interesting discussion thus far and I thank everyone who has left their thoughts thus far. It’s given me a number of things to think about when attempting to implement a system like this and whether it’s even feasible.
So what happens if I sell billions in futures and transfer the money to another account and delete the character?
How are you going to enforce the contract?
And don’t tell me about reputation and gentlemen agreements, we used to have those and things had to get regulated.
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CCP bailout?
You bring up an interesting point. I’ve thought more about this, so here are my thoughts on this:
When buying a future, the buyer needs to deposit twice the contract value into escrow to a corporation acting as the clearinghouse while also matching buyers with sellers and facilitating the transfer of goods between the buyer and the seller.
Whenever the seller has completed their side of the agreement and the contract has been filled, half of the total deposited escrow (remember that it is twice contract value), is given back to the buyer while the rest is kept as payment for the goods and sent out to the seller.
As a seller willing to sell, they deposit the contract value worth of isk to the clearinghouse corporation, while they gather the materials required to fill the contract. (This acts as a requirement and binding agreement between the buyer and the seller.) As the seller “pays” commodities to the corp acting as the clearinghouse, isk given as escrow by the seller is paid back out to them. Once all the goods have been “paid”/contracted to the clearinghouse, all the isk given as escrow originally is given back to the seller.
The seller has now received payment for their side of the agreement, while creating a binding agreement between the seller and themselves, by, themselves, depositing the contract value worth of isk to the clearinghouse, in order to discourage what you mentioned, “selling billions in futures and transferring the money to another account and delete the character”.
You won’t be able to, because you’ve also got the contract worth of isk tied up in the contract. As a seller you also need to deposit escrow, to enforce the agreement. If you do not meet the agreement, your goods and isk are given back at expiration.
Remember when I said the buyer needs to deposit twice as much isk as the contract is worth to buy it? That’s because one-half of their deposited isk is transferred to you as payment, plus, you get your original escrow (“agreement binder”) back. That way, neither the buyer nor the seller can ‘run away’ once they’ve agreed to either buy or sell a future.
At expiration, the buyer must take physical delivery of the goods. That is non-negotiable.
So, to answer your question “How are you going to enforce the contract?” by having the buyer deposit twice as much escrow as the contract is worth, to enforce their side of the agreement, which is to take delivery at expiration. The seller also deposits escrow, as described above, purely to ensure they honor their side of the agreement. Plus, the seller gets one-half of the escrow deposited by the buyer as payment for their goods.
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I think one of the main problems I see currently with this system is that it won’t get widespread use. That’s because initially, it would only make sense to trade in the most liquid commodities, for example, tritanium, plex, neodymium, zydrine, mexallon, ferrogel, logic circuits, and thulium.
An average player of EVE Online that just wants to shoot internet spaceships won’t have the inclination to use futures to get their hands on said goods at a lower tax rate and potentially a lower price than the current spot price, because of the added complexity, and because of the sheer unreliability of trading via the contracts system, submitting twice as much isk as is necessary when the contract is filled, and the seller depositing a large amount of commodity to a corporation without seeing a profit on that until the end of the week (at expiration).
I don’t feel like there are many players that would commit to that, simply because this system has many weak points and areas of exploitation. I want to reduce those points of weakness as much as possible to serve my future clients as well as possible, if the above is even feasible within the game and there is enough trade volume/interest/engagement to make this viable.
If someone decides to purchase a vast quantity of plex from in-game, I can understand why they may choose to do that out of marker (to avoid taxes), which means it could be advantageous to trade a future on plex, since it would allow people to purchase a large quantity of plex, or a certain other good with contracts on offer, cutting taxes and potentially securing a better deal 7 days down the road for the buyer.
Again, I’m just rambling ideas here.
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