Very true, but still… you cant get them to press f1 all at the same time, or shoot the broadcast… I could go on and on but I have yard work to do. I stand by my statement, most will just pick the first two.
I very much doubt a fleet of veteran players would lazily choose the top. They would follow the instructions.
In the above image of the triple spread, the enemy players at the top and bottom are the safest from being damped (irony!)
Btw, the general faults of [veteran] players is evenly distributed amongst both the allied and enemy fleet.
I know that if I was FC’ing a fleet of 100 munnins, and 68% of them were doubled damped and 27% of them were single damped, I’d be very mad.
Same idea applies to tier 1 Arbitrators fit with 3 TD’s and an Afterburner. The probability model predicts that the Arbs would trade ISK positive (the muninns would still win, but roughly 40% of the Muninns would be destroyed in an engagement of 100 Arbs vs 100 Muninns).
Assume that rigged Arb with with T2 drones/mods cost 20mil. Then 100 Arbs cost 2 billion.
40 proper fleet Munnins cost 12 billion. In our horde number crunching, the Scimis and Basis are also destroyed. We’ll just say 3 billion to be safe.
We’re trading 2 billion in Arbs and sub 100 million in tier 1 exequeros for 15 billion by using a random TD spread that utilizes the “pick 1 from top, one from mid, one from bottom” high breadth model.
Using this T2 Arb fit, we know that statistically 68% of the Muninns will have the following damage profile against the T2 Arbs slow burning at a 45 degree angle to the Muninn ball (the graphs assume that both the T2 Arbs and Muninns have the best INFO, SKIRM, ARMOR links for damage projection from Muninn against Arb):
68% of the Munnins will have this profile:
27% will have this profile:
4%
and around 1% of the Muninns would be unaffected.
Of the 362 dps a Munnin puts out, we have, under ideal circumstances, 100 Muninnis doing 36,200 dps.
However, according to the probability model:
68 are doing 115 dps @ 17km
27 are doing 175 dps @ 25km
4 are doing 260 dps @ 20km
1 is doing full dps, 360 dps.
We assume the Muninn ball comes in close at 20km with t2 short ammo.
Then:
68(115dps) + 27(175) + 4(260) + 360 = 7820 +4725 +1040 + 360 = 13,945 dps.
14000dps/36000dps = 38%. Therefore the sustained Muninn dps has been reduced by 62% (this includes their drones).
The drones of the Muninn’s do 100 dps each, then 100 Muninns project 10,000 dps with their drones. Our t1 logi can hold 10,000 drone dps on these brick fit arbs.
Thus the combined Arty dps of the Muninns is 14000-10,000 = 4000 dps.
Thus the Muninn’s most come in close at 20km to project a combined total of 4k dps from their guns.
That’s when our Brutix/dictor/dragoon wing booshes on top of them and proceeds to drink Muninn tears.
Continuing: The Alpha strike of a Muninn with Quake is 3166.
We now use the 3 graphs to calculate the expected Alpha Strike of 100 Muninns (no drones, therefore we subtract 100 dps from each Mun). Dps is increased from 360 to 400 for Quake (titanium sabot was initially assumed on their approach).
68 are doing 20 dps @ 17km
27 are doing 80 dps @ 25km
4 are doing 190 dps @ 20km
1 is doing full dps, 400 dps.
68 get 5% of the alpha strike.
27 get 20% of the alpha
4 get 47% off their alpha.
1 get 100% of its alpha.
3166x0.05 = 158.3; 158x68 =10744
3166x0.20 = 633; 633x27 = 17091
3166x.47 = 1488; 1488x4 = 5952
3166x1.0 = 3166; 3166x1 = 3166
Combined Alpha Strike is 36,953 on an Arb slow burning 45 degrees to the Muninn.
However, once the Muninns close in, the FC will steer the fleet perpendicular to the Muninns 20km away and further reduce damage taken by over 80%.
Alpha strikes would then fall from 37k to 7.5k on average. The T2 arb has 42k ehp and would mostly find himself suffering from the 10k drone dps, rather than the arty.
Also remember that this is the BEST CASE scenario for the Muninn fleet with full links.
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