Testing my luck… I figured the thing is worth 500 ish million… I bought 5 tickets on 5 different bids each with a 1 in 8 chance . Lets see my luck? will update as it goes
So, you essentially paid 415 million isk for a 62.5% chance to win a ship valued at 500 million isk?
Not sure if you’re bad at math, or trying to slyly advertise your hypernets in general discussion.
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That is a savings of 85 million isk, Scrow. Maybe you are the one who can’t do math.
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When a Hypernet Offer is fully completed, all the ISK goes to the maker of the offer (minus a small tax).
File a Support Ticket and ask for the Hypernet to be disabled for your account, if you ever wake up from your numbers-high fugue state.
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As someone who’s into math, my sensibilities are really offended by the value proposition of these Hypernet raffles.
But as someone who’s into meth, I’m grinding my teeth while nodding my head really fast, so it all kind of evens out in the end.
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One plus one equals? Money in CCP’s pocket.
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This is gambling .
It is roulette.
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I still have all my Hypercubes from when CCP gave them out like a pusher with free crack.
Should I use them? Is there some way to dump them on one raffle and win an Orca?
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so many responses! if anyone thinks I’m doing this to save money, I’m not. Hypernet is just fun and i was curious how my luck would pan out on these 1/8 raffles cards. And no these are not my Hypernets I’m promoting just the first 5 random ones i found.
I 100% agree, the Hypernet is a form of gambling . Just wanted to share! Will be getting home soon so lets see if im down 400m iskies or up! oh the rush!
Total cost of tickets is 419.7M ISK (83.94 average)
An Orthrus costs 489.2M ISK in Jita.
I made a little chart for you:
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If you win one of them, sure. But if you don’t win any, you’ve just lost 415 million ISK… Just remember, buying 8 lottery tickets with a one in 8 chance to win something, does not guarantee you will win something.
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I won a Marshal earlier so these bets are all with the fun play money, 400m is a lot but I’m not tripping about the loss bake that in an hour. How did you factor the odds of winning to be those amounts?
Wouldn’t be gambling if there were guarantees!
I used a simple expected value distribution to calculate it.
No matter how you look at it, you got a negative ROI. Now, I could understand if it was a small negative ROI and you just wanted to try your luck and gamble a little bit (e.g. a 48% chance to double your money), but a -27.15% ROI is basically scamming yourself out of money.
To put this another (simpler) way: those raffles value the ship at about 83.5*8=668M ISK, when it actually only costs about 489M ISK. For you to break even, the ticket price would have to be about 489/8=61M ISK. The house is taking a huge cut for your privilege to gamble.
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Isn’t the whole point of this game to lose money and get nothing in return? At least hypernets are faster than letting the Imperium steal all your stuff little by little.
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Sure, but if I just buy a skill book from the market and then trash it, I can steal from myself and steal from others, since no one else would get the money. So the best/most efficient thing to do would be to calculate the expected value of the Hypernets you’re wanting to play, and then trash the amount of money you’d lose.
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How does that help Hilmar?
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