(8/6)^6= 4096/729 odds you would lose 6 straight auctions where you owned 6/8 tickets. As you can see the odds were not unimaginable in this occurring. Welcome to odds betting mate.
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Buying up the remainer of the tickets is also the only way to guarantee a draw. I would like to see a draw if I buy a ticket. If I was running raffles, I would advertisw that a draw is guaranteed on every raffle.
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lol - That might be proof Nana has been on the internet a bit. 
Most humans are probably capable of using scruplesâŠeven Slavic peoples. (well, theoretically anyway 
)
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âŠ
You do realize that the entire point of a raffle/lottery is that the prize costs less than the sum of the ticket costs, right? That the person running it is doing it to make a profit, not as a charity service so you can get cheap items? Perhaps you should learn how gambling works before posting again.
create raffle
total cost of tickets is 1.5-3.5x cost of item
buy 40-70% of tickets yourself
you win? Keep all isk and get item back
someone else wins? You get all isk for overpriced raffle
Itâs a win-win for the creator. Donât participate in raffle where the creator has purchased tickets.
Buying your own tickets is a statistical 0 sum game. I tried to explain this once before with more complicated formulas, but perhaps the following is more intuitve:
If you buy 0% of the tickets, you have 100% of the isk from ticket sales and a 100% chance of losing your item.
If you buy 40% of the tickets, you have 60% of the isk from ticket sales and a 60% chance of losing your item.
If you buy 70% of the tickets, you have 30% of the isk from ticket sales and a 30% chance of losing your item.
If you buy 100% of the tickets, you have 0% of the isk from ticket sales and a 0% chance of losing your item.
The more people buy their own tickets, the greater the cost in hypercores for the same statistical effect. It seems to be a bad idea for a seller, except perhaps to force a draw in a desired timeframe as mentioned by CistaCista. From the buyerâs point of view, their odds of winning do not change no matter who owns the other tickets. It only matters that there are sufficient tickets available to satisfy the ratio of expense to win chance the buyer would like to purchase.
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So, it is possible to scam someone even if they have complete information? Simply by taking advantage of gambling psychology?
Wow.
Add this to the list of obviously wrong things Anderson says, I guess.
(I say this as someone who dislikes the very idea of having gambling features in this spaceship game.)
âhurricane victimâ
So I, having foreseen a hurricane season, bought a generator with my own money as an investment, and people who decided to live in hurricane landing zone, are victims because they did not foresee the risk of their choice? I am a scammer how?
You are just anchored to one price irrationally and cannot accept that changing demand/supply means changing price.
How is the person who created the offer buying tickets any different to someone else buying those tickets?
i havenât used hypernet yet and donât really expect to, butâŠ
when you buy your own tickets is it âyou lose the iskâ or âyou temporarily displace your isk because you get it back when the item sellsâ??
So if i offer say a LSI with 10 tickets at 200m
potentially the proceeds from the sale are 2b, yes?
so if i buy 8 tickets myself with an alt, i displace 1.6b of my own money anyway, and some rando buys the other two, and I win, I get my 1.6b back plus the 400m from the two randos?
its just a numbers game. you win some you lose some i guess. the profit potential sounds like an actual decent rate of return should you run a good lucky streak. will suck when you roll snake eyes though.
or am i wrong?
You lose isks. Like any hypernet offer.
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so ccp gets the income from the hypernet offer? then whats the freaking point
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If I catch your drift, it sounds like it works the way youâre saying.
In this situation, if you offer 10 tickets, and they all sell to other people, you will lose the skill injector and gain 2 billion isk.
If you buy 8 of your own tickets, you are giving money to yourself, for a net 0 gain for those 8 tickets. You will still get 400 million from your remaining tickets, which is 20% of what you could have had. In the end, you paid 80% of your profit potential for an 80% chance to keep your item, which is statistically the same as paying 0% of your profit for a 0% chance to keep it.
Depending on luck, people will have outcomes that differ from the statistical average both positively and negatively, but the more you sell the more likely you are to reach that average and the more overhead (hypercores) you will pay for using this strategy vs just letting other people buy all the tickets.
I do not know the timing of when the seller collects the money from buying their own ticket to say whether they get it back immediately or have to wait for the draw, though I am certain they will get it back. I have neither sold anything on the hypernet nor bid on any items on the hypernet. I dislike and ignore it. My intentions are to give people an accurate impression of the strategy and its potential effectiveness so that they can form their own opinons on it and the hypernet in general on a basis of genuine truth.
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I would like to see the math on that, especially when I can potentially keep reselling that item 8 times or more depending on my luck. An 8 turn on 400m is 3.2b when the cost retail is 1. something. The worst that can happen is that on my first sale I roll snake eyes. itâs a long game is what it looks like to me.
I mean if I keep winning 10, 20, 30 times, how am I getting a 0% return?
Where did I say 0% return?
Perfect Statistical Average Results of 10 simulated draws in your example of buying 8 of your own tickets, and assuming a 1B isk value on the injector prize.:
In 8 of those draws, you win keep your 1B investment and collect 400M isk from ticket sales. 1.4B total value.
In 2 of those draws, you lose your 1B investment and collect 400M isk from ticket sales. -0.6B total value.
Average value (1.4 * 8) + (-0.6 * 2) / 10 = 1 Billion.
10 trials where you sell all your tickets to other people.
In all 10 draws, you lose 1B isk value for the injector, but gain 2B isk from ticket sales. 1B total value.
Average value (1.0 * 10) / 10 = 1 Billion.
Statistically identical.
Where they differ is that the person in example 1 will make a maximum 400M profit from a single hypernet offer. The value of the item being kept does not count. Giving yourself your own item doesnât make you richer. The person in the second example will always profit to the tune of 1B for each hypernet offer. The loss of the item is being counted, losing an item does make you poorer, but is more than compensated for by the isk gain.
One think to keep in mind is that the potential of a failed draw means the host is out the ISK for the cubes. In this scenario it makes sense to buy a âfewâ tickets to guarantee that the draw happens rather than be out the cube moneyâŠthe fewer tickets the better of course.
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Iâve seen things that you canât imagine.
Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion?
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[quote=âRuna_Yamaguchi, post:38, topic:211672â]
One think to keep in mind is that the potential of a failed draw means the host is out the ISK for the cubes
In this scenario it makes sense to buy a âfewâ tickets to guarantee that the draw[/quote]
Not necessarily. As buying your own tickets lowers your profit, you can also either accept a few losses once in a while from not buying any of your own tickets or lowering the price you put the raffle is at to make it more enticing.
In all 3 strategies you are factoring in the potential lowering of income vs the results.
I think what Runa means is that if your hypernet offer has stalled because users are unwilling to buy tickets remaining (perhaps users think the chance to win with the remaining tickets is unacceptably small or better offers have come along), it may be in the sellerâs interest to buy the remaining tickets and bring the offer to a close to free up isk for reinvestment. In this case itâs a seller weighing the trade off between losing money on ticket sales and losing money they could be making with the isk tied up on the hypernet.
I do not know if they do, but if hypernet offers expire and would refund all ticket purchasers, buying your own tickets to force a draw would allow you to collect a sum of isk you would otherwise lose out on. It would be less than the optimal amount, but something is better than nothing. This could also be what Runa is talking about if expiry is a thing.
I recognize that buying your own tickets to end a sale can be sensible in some circumstances. Buying your own tickets as a form of insurance against the loss of your sale item, though, is not fiscally sound.
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