Monthly Economic Report - November 2018


(Rivr Luzade) #21

For huge ships, which are the biggest issues in EVE. Smaller things at least die, big things only disappear into tidi frustration.

They cannot? People are already talking about how to multibox several abyss sites at once.

(Arrendis) #22

Nonsense. As you can see, the overall wealth production across Imperium space is down by almost 6T for the month of November. The Delve Time Unit itself for November is down 4T*, with a minute of Delve Time worth only about 650M, down from 720M in October.

Many people are working on this. Some are even being successful.

  • corrected the wrong increment.

(zluq zabaa) #23

Even with multiboxing I don’t see how it could lead to a situation comparable with Rorquals, as higher end abyssal site running doesn’t scale in the same way. Most people won’t be able to multibox them with ease, the really professional ones could maybe do 3 at a time without losing too much - but that’s not the average. It’s also limited by a players ability to be highly concentrated over time. You can sit a large number of Rorquals semi-afk for an entire day, but I don’t see the same being possible for the average person with high tier abyss sites.

(Arrendis) #24

It was far easier to amass wealth via passive moon mining, as you didn’t have to put 7b per player on the field where enterprising individuals can kill (or steal) excavator drones.

What you’re looking at isn’t really overproduction. Instead, it’s basic economics: people aren’t going to impoverish themselves intentionally if they aren’t forced to. Since you can’t force people to login, you can’t force them to risk assets they deem more valuable than winning the current engagement. And that’s not going to change.

Example: nobody’s going to get all of their supercapitals killed trying to defend space. Having space without supercapitals means you can’t hold the space. Having supercapitals without space means you can probably take some space. Clearly, the supercapitals are more valuable than the space. And as long as getting a supercapital takes the one player who has it longer than any almost single campaign, and certainly longer than a single fight, those individual players usually[1] aren’t going to throw away their time and efforts for a momentary ‘yaaaay I blew up my own titan’.

If anything, the easier it is to get these ships, the more likely people are to throw them around foolishly and dangerously.

This isn’t an issue of ‘overproduction’ or ‘lack of destruction’, it’s an issue of ‘people valuing their own time and effort more than they value your fun’.

Good luck changing that.

  1. Sure, sometimes they’ll do it. They don’t usually mean to, but let’s face it, part of having the expensive toys (like faction titans) is about making the statement of ‘I can afford to lose this, so I’m gonna use it’. But when that happens, they’ve still got enough in the bank to make the loss not crippling.

(Nana Skalski) #25

Carebears have infested null and they are not going anywhere! :sunglasses:

(Arrendis) #26

It’s not about ‘carebears’. Frankly, that’s a ridiculous proposition on the face of it. If it was all ‘carebears’ who don’t fight, then Rorqs would be dying in droves in Delve every day. Instead, there’s an active supercapital defense force being flown by the same players as the Rorquals.

What you’re seeing is an arms race.

And it’s an arms race everyone in null knows has been going on for over a decade: you need more supers than the other guy. You’ve needed to have more supers than the other guy since about the moment supers went in. PL, for example, is entirely built around having supers, as Rivr there knows. LSH, too, knows that having supers is the way to take on supers. Sure, you can use ‘disposable’ insured dreads, but that’s only going to get you a snipe here or there. It’s not going to get you a victory worth crowing about.

You need supers. You want to survive against people who have supers, you either need to live on the run, mobile, from safe log to safe log, or you need a keepstar where you can dock your supers. And that means you need to be able to defend a keepstar from supers.

And all of this is only going to get even more obnoxiously apparent as soon as POS’s go away.

Nullsec is locked in an arms race that nobody can afford to stop trying to win, and nobody can afford to risk losing by setting themselves back a few dozen titans, because if they do, one of the other blocs (and there are, despite the hype, still something like 3-5 blocs) will come after them like a pack of hyenas seeing their first kill in a month.

And that’s not something that tweaking some numbers here and there, or saying ‘there needs to be more destruction’ will fix. Because for all zluq there wants to go on about ‘need more destruction’, you don’t see her throwing away her corps supercapitals, either. She goes into the abyss to make money, and hunts Aridia and Delve in cruisers.

(zluq zabaa) #27

It was certainly less of a time-sink. In that regard, it was easier for people who prefer to “fight over” rather than “work for” in-game wealth. Of course, fights are work too, but a different kind of and some people prefer it compared to less interactive forms of in-game work. At the same time, these ressources were much more limited than they are now. They also required way more Ice and PI products (fuel blocks) to run - so a base need for a lot of activity, which is not anymore. I see it more as a shift of activity rather than replacement of “passive” with “active”. The main point is that moons now yield way more moon minerals than before, at a higher “last step” amount of spent time.

I’m not looking at the distribution of who gets rich now, but rather at the overall amount of material influx, because for the question of wether or not huge ISK faucets are the primary or secondary problem, I think it does not matter so much who may profit from it, but which is the primary factor and what it may mean for the game in the long run. In that regard moon minerals don’t seem to be nearly as important as the constant availability of base minerals in Anoms and the scalability of Rorquals to source them.

Well it is overproduction in the way that the produced commodities outgrow the growth of ISK by a factor of 3. Sure, you are right, people want a safety cushion, but that’s not really the point here. The question is also not wether a 10 year cusion is too much or not. People have to decide that for themselves. All I’m saying is that growth of material wealth and growth of money (ISK) don’t seem to fit together quite well, because the amount of ISK can’t represent the amount of material at all. It may not be a huge problem, as long as people are happy with having more stuff than ISK, but it certainly encourages botting, because in that situation it is lucrative to fill the gap.

Sure, I agree. I don’t think I was argueing against that. The only thing I can really say to that is that in my personal impression N+1 was always an advantage, but in earlier times there was some kind of limit on the economic efficiency of N+1. Now, there isn’t, which makes N+1 way stronger than in the past. People have understood that and followed that rationale, naturally. It did change the game and continues to do so. The main outcome seems to be a higher than usual incentive to be part of the largest groups and all that comes with it.

Yes, sure, but I doubt that this is of much importance. We may say, that for the individual player it is hard to impossible or even completely uninteresting to take steps that are “good for the game”. Yes. But. At the same time, this “good for the game” - if it means to keep the game interesting for that individual player in the long run - is actually the expectation people have when making an effort such as sourcing a lot of materials or getting a lot of ISK.

In that regard, I think the current over the top strength of forming N+1 or N+10k blops bears the danger of drying out conflict in the long run - for several reasons. One, less necessity for conflict. Two, more blues for the majority. Three, a large enough gap creates less and not more fights (as it is more visible how a conflict can’t be won in the long run when it’s about attrition). Four, the importance of wits in the overall calculation declines and it drives off players who have mainly be in the game for a war of wits, not of better adaption to rules (though you could claim that this isn’t mutually exclusive - yes - it’s a question of perspective I suppose).

Hm, anyway, this leads to what you said here:

I really have no intention to change that. Not anymore anyway. I used to wrongly assume that people are solely looking for the extreme challenge that EVE can provide, but I certainly made the mistake to interpret others with my own bias. I accept that there are many people who play this game in order to relax and to spend large amounts of in-game time to do in-game work in order to acquire in-game wealth that makes them feel relaxed and maybe in-game safe. I accept that. It’s okay. Not my reason to play a game, but it’s something that people decide for themselves.

I accept it, but I don’t understand it. I mean, why are people recreating pretty average real-life behaviour within a game that would easily allow them to break those chains, challenge themselves in ways they usually wouldn’t? Or may be this is just another wrong assumption of mine and most of those players are real-life criminals or soldiers for a small country, who don’t need any simulation of danger, because they already have it - or the real lifes of people are even more uninspired than grinding Rorquals, in which case it’s just something I possibly can’t grasp.

Anyhow, no intention to change anything about it. I used to argue a lot about the MER and such, but it’s more than too late to take back these changes. The train has left the station as we say in Germany. There is no going back and it would be very irrational to expect that a discussion today could change that.

Honestly, for me it comes down to playing the guessing game wether or not (what I understand as) overproduction is an enabler of botting and (mostly unrelated to the first) if the current strength of N+10k can be mechanically broken as was the former over-strength of the passive moon empires or if the trinity of Rorquals, Density of Ressources and Bots, leads to more frustration than ever and fails to motivate and deliver the necessary “other side”, that is needed to keep our cute little space conflict hot and interesting in the longer perspective. Just curious, that’s all.

(Arrendis) #28

By the way, @CCP_Falcon: this is a problem. This is going to be the death of every group in lowsec or nullsec that doesn’t have the wherewithal to defend a keepstar from anyone bigger than say, Triumvirate. Each and every one of those groups is going to be absolutely screwed without POS’s. They’re going to be forced to safe-log their titans and supercapitals in tether, and they’re just not going to do it. Not for very long. Not when the bigger groups get to dock up and use that character for literally any other ship they feel like flying.

That means small groups can’t afford to bridge fleets around. Especially on in the East, they can’t afford to be independent while running 3-4 regions out for JF services. If you want independent, smaller groups, or groups who can use these ships in lowsec that aren’t Legacy, PanFam, the Imperium, WinterCo… you need to find a way to not leave them hanging with their rears in the wind.

If you don’t, their supercapital pilots will start to drift away to the places where they can use their ships, or just leaving the game because they don’t have enough of a defensive force to risk putting the big toy on the field to light the bridge.

You can’t get bumped out of a private POS. Gimme a properly-fitted Lif, and I’ll bump an Avatar off a Keepstar if he’s dumb enough to be afk.

(Querns) #29

If they can figure out how to turn off ship-to-ship collision physics while tethered, it’d probably help.

(zluq zabaa) #30

So cruel to point out that I have stopped loving EVE a while back, but it’s only fair I guess. I still play it a bit on other chars, but really without any passion. A little gank here, trying this and that there - nah. It used to be the perspective of the political game that was interesting for me - but frankly it lost a lot of its appeal when it became even more powerful a factor to sink time into the game, than using brains. It’s okay though, I’m still making a good passive income and once my real life allows for more playing again, I might have filled the final holes in my subcapital skills and go back to Molden Heath and fight 1v1 in the Top Belt in my SFI :stuck_out_tongue:

(zluq zabaa) #31

Yeah, this problem has been pointed out the moment they introduced their Citadel plans. I haven’t heard any replies yet, but I guess they could introduce something rather than forcing people back into times of casket-titans. Then again, they might just do exactly that. I doubt any lowseccer would really be surprised by this.

(Arrendis) #32

Well, the refinery needs fuel blocks to run. The Rorquals need heavy water to hit the industrial core. It’s a trade-off. I don’t know the specific numbers… but @Querns might. Net effect, Querns, large reduction in ice costs?

And yet, the amount of moongoo coming to market across the game is down. Huh.

Which has been addressed at least once by increasing the respawn delay of anomalies. It’s not going to be un-done. I’m not even sure it can be un-done. Remove the Rorqual, you’ll find the process happening with Hulks. And the net result won’t be a change in the overall ratios at all, it’ll be a reduction in how much people are willing to risk in large fights. That’s it. If anything, a higher flow rate means more churn, and those ‘ten year’ stockpiles not being 10 years’ worth anymore.

Because there’s a demand for it. If there weren’t a demand for those commodities, they’re drop below the point of profitability. There’s more demand for the stuff than there is for liquid ISK, that’s all.

There wasn’t. It just wasn’t as obvious to people because the raw numbers weren’t as big. N+1 is pretty much the ultimate solution through all of human history. Find a problem? The more people you can put on it, the more likely you are to come up with the optimal solution, and then that solution can be implemented faster and more thoroughly. Always. Even if the N+1 just comes from funding.

As opposed to the 2014-2015 ‘Blue Donut’ stagnation where literally all of nullsec was owned by 2 blocs? Right now, you’re seeing an increase in conflict, and one that’s actually been on a steady rise since the changes in moon mining.

They’re not. They’re using the way they understand the world to enable themselves to do things they can’t do IRL. You make the investment, put in the effort, you get the rewards. It’s that simple. How many of these people do you think get to blow things up daily, IRL? How many of them do you think ‘get’ to treat other human beings like punching bags?

Where you see people looking for danger, I don’t. I see people looking to demonstrate agency. I see people, especially folks like LSH and small gang/solo PvPers, looking to make themselves feel like they aren’t completely impotent, locked into boring routines, unable to affect any real change in their own lives or the lives of others… so that’s what they’re doing: they’re demonstrating their power to make changes that impact other peoples’ lives, in the quickest, simplest way possible…

… being vicious bastards to one another.

That’s the sad truth behind all of the ‘salt mining’ nonsense that goes on. People feel insignificant, so they need to make themselves feel important. They do that by causing misery, by getting a reaction. It’s also a connection—however negative and (if taken far enough, long enough) potentially toxic—with another human being, something the internet generation’s starting to isolate themselves from in other venues.

That’s what’s going on all over EVE: people making connections with other people. For the most part, even the negative connections spur positive interaction down the line. You get together at EVE meets, tell stories, laugh with your friends—find out that guy you made really salty is actually pretty cool and you’ve made a new friend…

But they’re not just re-creating the RL grind. They’re taking what they know, and how they feel the world should work: you work hard, you get the rewards, and using that as a means to get experiences they can’t ever get IRL (and probably shouldn’t, if they’re gonna run around blowing people up): intensity, excitement… that’s the draw of the big tidi fights, too. You struggle and suffer against the system… in hopes of a payoff that feels significant, that feels like it matters.

Because for a whole lot of people, other than ‘I get to keep a roof over my/my family’s head(s) and food on the table’… nothing they do IRL feels like it does.

Find what you love about the game. Find where you can do that thing. Then see if that place will let you try other things, too. You never know where you’ll find your bliss, but if where you are and what you’re doing aren’t it… don’t do that. :wink:

(Querns) #33

In terms of fuel use for moon miners, the fuel burn rate per moon has decreased. A moon drill costs 5 blocks per hour to run, compared to the 10/20/40 a POS required to run. However, this is largely meaningless. Ice prices are dictated more by shipping and ice asteroid belt composition rather than fuel use in moon miners. In particular, heavy water and liquid ozone are extremely cost-inefficient to ship, while isotopes are relatively cheap in comparison. Additionally, there is four times as much LO3 in an ice belt as there is HW. Combine this with heavy water’s drastically increased use (not only in rorquals, but command burst ammo as well) and you have a situation where heavy water is expensive and everything else is in the trash, especially liquid ozone. The change of fuel use in moon miners is basically irrelevant in the face of that.

CCP, please add more LO3 use.

(Arrendis) #34

Thanks for the info. Always handy to have smart people around. :wink:

(zluq zabaa) #35

It used to be 10/20/40 for Small/Medium/Large POS (non faction) or 8/9, 16/18, 32/36 for faction versions. One MHA yielded 72,000 of one specific moon mineral in a month. IIRC it wasn’t nearly as common to have more than one R16+ goo on a single moon. This meant that you needed to run quite a large amount of POS. For reactions you had different solutions, but to run the 2nd stage which yields AMMs you needed Large POS. I’d say I was easily burning through 15k of fuel blocks a day. Now you have both a much larger variety of stuff on a single moon, including regular minerals (which really makes a difference) and Reactions became way cheaper, at least when you are a large group and run them concurrently.

Is it? Hm, okay, I thought this is just due to less need or due to Delve competing with Amarr now, thus keeping a good portion of goo for local producation rather than running it off to Jita.

Sure, I don’t claim anymore that it should be undone. It’s too late. Actually, you as a GSF member should probably ask for it being removed at some point, as it would manifest your wealth in the long run.

I’ll have to look at the market data, but I think you may mean “demand” not as in market demand, but players wanting to fill the hangers with their own stuff. I’ll take every bet that right now if everybody tried selling all their stuff for ISK, we’d see Machariels going for 10m in a matter of weeks, because there is way more stuff than ISK.

Well there was the limit of acquiring ressources. N+1 was alway super powerful, but within the range of such a groups dominating power there used to be less ressources than today. Also Rorqual mining wasn’t quite as lucrative. So it changed a bit towards more strength for N+1.

That being said, there are many situations in real life or human history where N+1 is not a better solution than N*-1. First of all, many problems require quality as a base necessity. Second, large groups of people require specialized forms of organisation - the more complex the challenge, the more difficult to implement that and certainly the higher the need for quality on the individual level. I argue that a few of the current game mechanics have shifted that relation strongly in favor of pure quantity and organization became a bit easier with higher density of ressources. Does that mean GSF has it all super easy? Nope, I wouldn’t say that. It does mean however, that EVE took a step back into early industrial times, not forward into space age.

Good point about 2014/15. You might have seen, that I mentioned that as well - albeit without seeining the increase in conflict that you are seeing. I’d say during that time GSF became a bit of a “underdog” for a while, which was strongly motivated and later supported by game mechanical changes in order to get ahead again and thus keeping the game interesting. Not sure, if any mechanical changes today could help provide the same.

Hm, I only ever punched people who break the peace and endanger others. What I meant wasn’t the aspect of (space) violence though. First of all, real violence is very different from in-game PVP, really. As a kid I was beaten up by bullies regularly, because I couldn’t stop myself from opening my mouth when they harrassed random people. I can tell you, it’s not the same feeling to be kicked in your actual face by a group of older guys and to lose a ship in a game-fight. The latter might make you angry, but you won’t fear for your life. And when this makes you strong and you fight back, it’s not nice either. For me at least. It’s part of our reality that some people have to be met with strength, because they don’t respect other human beings - and while it is sadly a necessity, it’s not a good experience. Naturally I prefer to be strong and limit the danger some individuals induce over being a victim, but ultimately I’d prefer a world of reason and mutual respect.

So, that being said, EVE is a game. For me it seems clear that people participate in it voluntarily and within a set of rules, which exclude most of the dangers real life violence comes with. Simply for that reason I don’t even see any violence in EVE, only moves on a chessboard so to say. Me not understanding relatively average forms of behaviour in-game does not mean I don’t understand why people don’t run around wildly wielding their ships all times of the day, but why they organize in such typical ways. Why do they subordinate themselves in the same manner they would in real life? I’m not saying they shouldn’t, I just wonder what then the core experience of the game is for them and why all the time spend isn’t better spend for the same things in real life. That’s all I’m asking myself and I might miss something, so please point it out.

Hm, ok, I guess I know a bit what you mean, but I think you’re addressing the wrong person or groups. As you probably know, every person and group will set their own goals and only according to this can they and will they measure their own success. Of course it is a valid strategy to try and bait others into accepting your own criteria, but it doesn’t work very well unless you meet people who can’t see the sun behind their own ego. As a matter of fact, many smaller groups will learn to see things relatively calmly. If today you don’t want to develop your group into a certain kind of format, you can’t compete on the same field as groups who do. What you can do is set your own goals, don’t accept other peoples criteria and have fun.

There may not be the 100% division, but I’d say you chose to only see one kind of people in these groups - the ones who look for salty replies. You don’t have to believe me, but I can tell you that many small group people I know are not looking for “tears” or that kind of stuff. I agree though, that people who do this as their normal mode, probably have some kind of real issues with themselves. It’s just doesn’t fit most of the people I know and certainly not myself.

You have those people in all kinds of groups, but if I had to estimate, I’d say if anything you find them less amongst people who PVP not only when the odds are totally in their favor. For some people PVP is just like speed chess and that’s it - it includes basic respect for the opponent and certainly not the wish to crush their souls. It may feel bad when you lose a Ceptor to a SB BS (as I see you did), but I don’t believe anyone of us actively tried to get some salty reaction from you.

Yes, where it happens, it’s weird and stupid, but it’s not the same as PVP itself in its many forms. Okay, in some ways it might be used tactically to provoke an in-game reaction that leads to escalation of the fight, but that’s not the same kind of people who will try to rub it in just because.

Again yes, just that this does not fit the description of most of the people I know in Lowsec.

Well maybe that’s the point then. Does it “matter” or not and do you struggle against the system or just swim with the stream. I suppose it comes down to expectation you have towards the game and what kind of challenge you are looking for. I guess there is a huge difference in people who build up the super large groups and stick to it no matter what - and those who join the party very late to find a bit of comfort and safety and this may lead to some misunderstandings when talking about it.

That’s a bit a problem of the times we live in and how many of us take everything for granted, at the same time this pressure to be special and stand out, rather than just being a good friend, loving parent and honest upstanding person in general. Food on the table and roof over the head - that’s what matters. Going a few extra metres and contributing to the thriving of society - even better. But you won’t get famous with helping the elderly, planting a tree, building a street, helping your neighbors or contributing to a 180 people scientific work. We have learned that being an everyday hero is not respected much and instead more people start to hunt for every little advantage they can get over their peers. It may feel normal now that every 2nd person wants to be famous rather than a good contributer to society, but it wasn’t always like that.

(Snowlight Campbell) #36

I love it, this is literally nerd porn!

(Marcus Kormienko) #37

But why take 5 hours to log on to Eve tranquility. Reported or what. On my usual keyboard in Russian and English I switched it to English since Russian is not allowed. 5 hours can you imagine 5 hours trying to fix and recover your account. On top of a group that you’re in and it is not really active and don’t care if you dropped dead

(Arrendis) #38

Mostly it’s because all of those automated miners up north? They ain’t running. There’s large swaths of space where nobody’s moon-mining at all.

… and then there’s Delve. Legacy space is starting to get built up to produce, but Delve and Querious are the clear production leaders right now.

It would, but that’s negligible and transient, really. As much as people refuse to believe it, most of us want the whole game to be healthy—we can’t enjoy the game if there’s no game to enjoy, after all.

Sure, but that’s because the people in Stain, Curse, etc, have been there for 10 years, carefully creating a choke-hold on Machariel supplies. That’s one specialized commodity. If you look at the overall market (heck, any market) what drives prices long-term is demand. All ‘oversupply’ can do is reduce prices.

Not exactly. When you’re looking at quality, how do you get that quality? You need a larger pool to filter from, a larger supply amount to provide the extra material for better quality goods, a larger tax base to fund the higher-quality items you need to purchase. As I said, ‘even if the N+1 just comes from funding’.

Same with large groups needing specialized forms of organization. That’s definitely true, but larger groups need proportionately fewer people committed to running things. Let’s look at a 10-character corp. It’s got 1 guy running it. 1/10th of the people in the corp are running the corp. Scale that up to a 30,000 player alliance, and how many people are running the alliance? 3,000?

Now, sure, there’s tiers of efficiency. That 10-character corp can maybe even scale up to 100 or so characters w/20-30 players before you need more than 1 guy in charge. But you know, it’s probably going to need at least 1-2 people helping out once it hits 10-15 players. Assistants. So at 30 people (100 character), let’s say 3 people doing the work of ‘running things’. Ok, that’s 3%. At 30,000 characters, that’s 900 people ‘in charge’.

Probably don’t need that many people running things. Again, having the larger pool means you can filter for more capable leadership, you can draw on more experience and more know-how to solve the problem of ‘how do you organize this group?’ You find better solutions, because you have more brains to apply to finding them.

The more complex the challenge, the more you look for ways to break it down into a number of simple tasks. And then those tasks can be distributed to make light work among many hands.

Because they find that to be an effective way to achieve their goals. They don’t have to. They’re not locked down, the way they likely are RL. But the leaders they’ve found and stuck with have demonstrated that they’re effective, and they’ve provided what those players are after… or they wouldn’t stay.

Yup. I totally agree. And that’s why I do what I do in EVE. I fly logistics cruisers. I help design fittings. I help run things, because running things is really about making sure the line guys have what they need to do what they want to do. That—in my own estimation, at least—is the job of any leadership: to facilitate the regular members’ ability to thrive and enjoy the game.

If you’re in a group like that… don’t be. That’s really all I can offer there. Our lives are too short to waste on things that make us miserable. Find what you love.

(Peter Yurgin) #40

Why are there so many trading swings this month? Some trade hubs have 11 trillion in a trade swing from last month. That is very drastic. Not sure that can be true. These last few trade data numbers have been just everywhere.

(Rivr Luzade) #41

Machariels do not come from Stain, that’s Nightmares. Furthermore, most of the BPC come from escalation drops and not from missions. Coincidentally, wasn’t it your buddies TEST who wanted to create a shortage of Nightmares by withholding as many BPC from escalation drops as possible from Jita. So, players in sov null create strangleholds on these supplies, not mission runners in NPC space. Mission runners in NPC space can actually help to counteract and alleviate the stupid shenanigans of some daft sov null sec group.

It is also not the users who strangle their supply. It was CCP’s idea (probably introduced by the CSM) to limit drops and escalations.