we’re not talking gold standart model are we?
3 folded and down.
A bot supporter. (Ramona)
An RMTer. (Yellow)
Dunno why you folded, but whatever.
not fiscal tender? because i do wonder if a senatot can guarantees anything in an inflation.
Really?
Regarding MCT It is just not true…
1 MCTcosts $. 19.95 or 485 plex
500 Plex costs $ 19,99.
485 plex x 0,03998 = $ 19,39…
if you buy the Plex pack for $ 499.99 the MCT cost you $ 15.72
There are also many players plexing their accounts to Omega, and yes they buy ingame.
But you have no evidence to support this. None. And even if it is true, so what? Market working as it should. Speculators holding onto a stock for a future price increase…what a shock. This is the market working as it should.
So what? See the above. That speculators buy PLEX and hold them for a future price increase is not bad…that is actually good as it helps smooth out the market. What might be a very large price spike becomes a much smaller one.
Jesus…
Except for the ones that don’t. Your analysis is flawed, half assed and bad. In 15 minutes I disproved your claim about all.
You dismissed it out of hand without even reading them. Spare me this.
So, because it fits your narrative you assume it is true. Gee, nothing wrong with that. 
What? Explain this, sounds like post modernist nonsense; string together some economic sounding words that have little or no relation to each other and hope nobody catches on that it is simply incoherent ramblings.
Actually, that is not true for the one’s I checked. For the one’s I checked the most were more expensive. And it could be that those are old sell orders where the price was reasonable given the price of PLEX at the time. People are rationally ignorant, so maybe the seller has not kept an eye on the PLEX market and adjusted the price accordingly.
If this is true then your insistance on what is going on in terms of PLEX, skins and apparel are at best highly speculative.
Actually it does. Each one could shift the demand curve outward, in theory. So lots of them vs. few of them could mean a big shift vs. a little shift…in which case @Aaron could be right.
Yes, and more options means a higher probability people will buy them. Here is a simple model of that. Suppose that the probability somebody sees a skin they like and want to buy it for PLEX is 1%. Suppose we have 100 players (note the numbers are for expository purposes not to be take literally). And suppose there is 1 skin. We’d expect to sell 1 skin. Now, suppose we have 50 skins. Now we’d expect to sell 50.
This is why when in the U.S. you walk into the cereal section of the grocery store you’ll see 50 different types of cereal. You’ll see Special K, Frosted Flakes, Count Chocula, Booberry, Corn Pops, Cap’n Crunch, Raisin Bran, Apple Jacks, Cocoa Puffs, Fruit Loops, Cracklin’ Oat Bran, Shredded Wheat, Cheerios, Honey Nut Cheerios, etc. Same thing in the soda isle, or the shampoo isle, the soap isle, etc.
Which is another reason why CCP would want more skins. That guy could say, this is cool, but so is that new one and buys that one too.
This is nothing more than restating the law of supply! That is all you have final ended up doing. You could just have easily written, “PLEX prices are higher because demand has increased due to reasons other than price (you call it PLEX diversification) and supply slopes upwards, therefore the price increased.”
Wow. I think we all new this 1,585 posts ago. And this how markets are supposed to work. Demand increases (the curve shifts to the right/outwards) and we “move along” the supply curve leading to a price increase. Shocking as this may sound to most of the lay public: markets are often a self-correcting process. Not always, and when they do not self correct there is often an external policy preventing that self-correction.
Yeah, sure. And some undoubtedly do that. But at the same time some players might only buy say $60 worth of PLEX and are then constrained in their in game activities due to less ISK than they’d like. That is suppose I could afford to spend $100/month and that would suffice me for my PvP activities in game. But I can’t due to other demands on my income, so I spend $60 and just use my ISK in game more wisely. But suppose the price of PLEX in game goes up…I can now still buy $60 but have more ISK in game and thus engage in activities that I previously did not engage in due to an ISK constraint.
The point isn’t that this narrative is “more” true than yours, but that both could very well be true. If that is the case, then drawing a deduction about how many PLEX people are buying from CCP is hard to gauge. And this would be true even if we had access to CCP’s micro data. Statistical models to determine these fine points are very tricky and the results can be very sensitive to things like model specification.
Yet despite all this you make these pronouncements with absolute certainty.
Oh look now you take on my valid observation that the skins market is thin and basing statements on it are problematic…
I wouldn’t know I have never bought one and do not plan on buying one. To me ships are tools and getting a skin is like getting a fancy paint job on a hammer.
But the point still stands though. Some skins on the market are above their PLEX value, some are below…because the market is thin and thus it is going to give you spotty data points. Drawing a certain conclusion from such dubious data is just laughable.
And if he had enough income he might spend $60 on both.
And sure I might say, “I need 3 billion ISK, and at the old price of 2 million ISK/PLEX I bought 150, now at the new price of 3 million I buy 100.” Then the next month I might change my in game behavior for [insert laundry list of reasons] and I go back to 150 PLEX or 200, or 50, or none at all.
You are assuming people’s behavior is robotic and unchanging. Maybe it is, but that is an extremely restrictive hypothesis. And thus it is going to need some fairly robust support…which you don’t have.
Not if my monthly income is $10,000 after taxes (hahahaha I wish) it isn’t. That is 0.6% of my hypothetical income. Assuming I am working say, 80 hour weeks (say I work for a law firm in the US that is just about 2 hours of my working hours…and when working 80 hours a week, I’m not going to have much time to grind, so PLEX offers a way to get ISK to do stuff in game.
The value of something is dependent on subjective value. Somebody might be very penny pinching and be very rich. Another person can be a spend thrift and be poor. This varies from person to person.
Exactly this. Value is subjective. I am sure there are things I like that @yellow_parasol does not. I’ll spend money on it and yellow might just shake is head and think, “You like that crap Teck…?”
1 Like
I love the Ode to Joy…I’d buy that for a penny. 
4 Likes
It is definitely possible.
How can we verify it?
Let’s see.
- The only activity in EvE player constantly can spend ISK on is PvP.
- You can only spend only so much time to PvP.
- People tend to get better at activity they do constantly.
=> Growing PLEX with constant supply of RL money (growing supply of ISK) leads to more expensive builds used in PvP?
Can it be true? Can we find it out somehow?
1 Like
Can you backup this assumption? Have you ever traded PLEX?
– EDIT –
Ok, since discussing with Salvos is ridiculous anyway because he will just avoid the question or back his assumption with another ridiculous answer without any concept I will just explain to @Ramona_McCandless and @Teckos_Pech why I think this latest assumption of our resident PLEX Astrologist Salvos is BS.
You have different actors with different interests in the market. I don’t think they are very numerous and can actually be categorized pretty straight forward. Also the market only works because of this different actors. You have buy and sell orders which have to be created by one party and filled(taken by another.
Lets look at the participants of a PLEX trade:
- The PLEX Source, People who purchase PLEX from CCP and want to trade it for money.
- The PLEX Sink, People who purchase PLEX from the market to get play time or stuff from the shop.
- The Trader, Trades PLEX on the market for profit from the trade margin.
- The Investor, Stockpiles PLEX to make a long term investment to profit from price increase or to protect his capital from inflation.
Now lets take a look at what those actors can actually do on the market. I will write down the action and for each one add the actors who have any motivation to participate in it.
Create a sell order (PLEX Source, Trader, Investor)
This is pretty straight forward, everyone who has any interest in selling PLEX on the market has a motivation to create a sell order.
Create a buy order (PLEX Sink, Trader, Investor)
Same here, everyone who has an interest in purchasing PLEX from the market has a motivation to create a Buy order to get his PLEX.
Buy from a sell order (PLEX Sink)
The only one motivated to purchase from a sell order is actually an inpatient PLEX Sink. The Trader makes his profit from the margin between buy and sell orders, so he always creates them. The Investor has no interest in buying from a sell order since he does not need the PLEX immediately and will lose potentially billions of ISK if he would use a sell order instead of creating one.
Sell to a buy order (PLEX Source)
Similar to the buy order, the only one with a motivation to fill a buy order is an inpatient PLEX Source. The trader has no interest because he always just creates orders. The investor has no interest since he has no immediate need for the ISK and would lose potentially billions of ISK if he would sell to a buy order instead of creating one.
So in conclusion we have the following two transactions which happen on the market:
Sell Orders
PLEX Sink buys from PLEX Source, Trader, Investor
Buy Orders
PLEX Source sells to PLEX Sink, Trader, Investor
So as we can see, in every transaction a PLEX will be introduced to the system or it well be removed, because there is always an impatient PLEX Source or Sink involved. So this in essence means that:
Everey PLEX is traded at the most two times before he is consumed. There is no basis for the assumption that PLEX is traded multiple times on the market.
q.e.d.
EDIT2:
This also completely shatters the hypothesis that the PLEX market currently is only hold afloat by existing stock like Salvos asserted, Because this would mean only sell orders would be used and buy orders not, which would lead to a MASSIVE increase in PLEX price and nothing like the small steady increase we see today.
The more I think about it the more I’m convinced that the PLEX price increase is more likely the effect of a shift in the ISK/$ exchange rate and has nothing to do with supply/demand at all. It would be interesting however to have a glimpse at the numbers of sell and buy orders, because as explained above this would let us measure pretty directly how much PLEX are created (with $) and consumed. Will have to check if this is possible with the API or if those numbers are in the market reports.
1 Like
Im usually the impatient source as when I obtain a PLEX its from the activation of a sub or some other windfall as Im so casual at the minute Im nearly vertical.
But Ive been pretty much all of the rest at least a bit over the years.
Id say I agree with this except that I feel the perception of how it works might vary for each case; more specifically that the Impatient Source/Sink feels that more is traded in the way they do it, and that in turn generates a kind of panic buy or sell response (“omg if I dont grab that some one else will. Its such a bargain”).
But thats just how basic marketting works a particular demographic set, relying on perception of reality and so it would be easy to misjudge how the system operates if you were say a person who mostly only did one of these things.
Tl,dr;
Agreed, and I think that when you are in the game, it can be hard to see what the game looks like around you.
There was a comment from CCP on it. Stated the average number of times a PLEX exchanged hands before being sunk.
Yes, I have traded PLEX.
i wonder… if i buy PLEX with fiat, find private buyers to avoid the market, who won’tdrop them on the market either, and then use the isk to buy PLEX from the market…then i only lose fees, but achieve what i want and still win, because i pushed plex upwards…
iirc CCP gives a discount when you buy 300 (old PLEX) or more…
(from the how-to-piss-off-people department)
i haven’t yet mentioned that plex are too cheap…
plex are way too cheap! 
1 Like
In all probabability Ive given friends and alts a PLEX I didnt get off the market to keep them active before alpha stuff.
So yeah I can see that.
hmm… i could need a feature implemented to help me with this.
donating gametime using contracts.
1 Like
You are correct. This is an irrationality in CCPs cash pricing of MCT I had overlooked.
Thanks for pointing it out.
As much as I appreciate your breakdown of consumer groups, these are in part factually inaccurate.
1 is accurate.
2 is innaccurate, in that it is cheaper to buy a sub, than PLEX, if gametime is the goal.
3 is identical to 1, and superfluous. Eventually those PLEXes are traded for isk, as in 1.
4 is identical to 1 also, and superfluous. Eventually those PLEXes are traded for isk, as in 1.
So that leaves us with 1 and 2.
We can call them PLEX sources, and PLEX sinks, respectively.
- PLEX sources buy PLEX from CCP to sell them ingame for isk.
- PLEX sinks buy PLEX from CCP to sink them on services, namely skins/apparel/re-sculpt, or MCT, which Gwenaelle_de_Ardevon accurately pointed out is cheaper in PLEX than cash from CCP.
Now, the interesting stuff:
A) It can be generally assumed, that a player will prefer a sub purchase with their cash, first, if they dont have an existing sub, before buying PLEX ontop of that. This is for numerous reasons, including the equitable SP generation and even more importantly, the full access to all EVEs content. A sub is cheaper than PLEXing a sub, in cash. In your classifications, a Trader will in all cases prefer to get a sub, first, before considering buying PLEX. Trading with an Alpha, no matter how much commodities they trade, will be at far greater overhead costs due to lack of SP skills.
B) After that, its up to much how expendable income and/or dedication to EVE they have. It can rationally be assumed, that people will buy as few cash services as possible, inorder to achieve their goals. They dont buy “extra” just for the hell of it.
C) Teckos and I have argued the skin/apparel market as a “PLEX Sinker” effect. We disagree, but neither of us is wrong. We just approach it from different angles. I see Skins/apparel as having very low motility, and almost always being actually sold at a loss in terms of comparing if the buyer had simply sold the PLEX instead. There are exceptions, but its very niche, as shown by how few of these skins/apparel end up on the isk market, and how rarely they sell for the sellers order. Furthermore, it is to be assumed thata significant proportion of sinkers of PLEX into skins/apprael, only buy any one of them once, and only the one of whichever they want for themselves. If they buy the PLEX from CCP for that skin/apparel/resculpt/MCT, those PLEX never enter the i game player PLEX market. They are sunk directly.
D) As we have all agreed, the higher the value of PLEX in isk ingame, the less of them a player has to buy to meet their isk goals. That is a fact.
E) We dont know if the higher the value of PLEX in isk ingame results in more people buying them, than before (even if their individual volume of purchase would be less due to D). We assume this, but we dont have any evidence.
F) All that really matters, when you boil all of the above to its lowest common denominator, is the rate of PLEX being bought from CCP vs the rate of PLEX being sunk ingame. As we all know, CCP only really, from a bookkeeping sense, earns its cash off a PLEX, when it is finally sunk.
G) My view is that less PLEX is being bought from CCP, and this is the core cause of ever increasing PLEX price ingame. The slack is being offset by existing stockpiles flowing into the market, and hence the relatively stable rate of volume of exchange and “relatively” gradual growth in price (disregarding spikes for the moment). But its mostly people trading existing PLEX from A to B.
H) As to the rate of PLEX being sunk in EVE, I do think that has increased, primarily by people dumping them on 2nd hand Extractors, MCT (as irrationally cheaper than a cash MCT) and people using them 2nd hand to buy skins/apparel.
I) Imo, at the very least, PLEX purchase from CCP has not increased in proportion to the rise of demand by the centralization/diversification of PLEX services, or price in isk of it ingame. Furthermore, the expendable cash of people to spend on CCP services, almost certainly has not risen proportionately. I doubt very many of us have experienced a 67% increase in income in the last year.
J) As to PLEX introduced via the Buddy program. You can either agree with me that they are free, or you can continue to insist CCP earns money off them (which I dont understand or agree with at all.) All I see, is a sub being paid to CCP or a PLEX being sunk in exchange for another PLEX. (Note: Buddy is now activated if the Buddy goes Omega. Whether by cash, PLEX or any other means).
1 Like
People who sub directly have nothing to do with what I’m talking about. Your point is completely irrelevant.
Yeah ok, you just demonstrated once again how completely confused you are about the whole topic if you think that is even remotely the case. Anyway, I did not really except a real answer from you and that is why this was addressed to Ramona And Teckos in the hope that they can actually provide valuable feedback and not just some confused drivel.
I did not even read the rest of your post. There is no point in discussing this with you.
1 Like
You misunderstood.
It is not rational to sub with a cash PLEX purchase, rather than a cash sub.
The cash sub is cheaper, especially the more of it you buy at once.
You are an idiot if you buy PLEX for cash to sub with, rather than buying a sub for cash, as the latter costs less than the former.
I demonstrated that your “Trader” and “Investor” PLEX purchasers are the same as your “PLEX Source” category, and redundant. All of them invariably sell their PLEX for isk. Thats the whole point of trading and investing. So that you can sell them for a profit in isk, just like the “PLEX source” category.
Whether they sell them now, or later, doesnt matter.
The whole point is nonetheless to sell them for isk, sooner or later.
Your 4 categories, are infact only the first two.
PLEX Source purchasers, and PLEX Sink purchasers.
(You misrepresented PLEX Sinkers as buying PLEX from CCP to sub with, as it is rational to sub with cash cheaper instead).
anyone for a banana chokolate cake or tiramisu cake when the thread hits 1600? even a forum war can hardly be fought with empty stomache.
1 Like
The only thing you demonstrated is a lack of understanding and I don’t have the patients any more to explain it to you again. Read it again and try to wrap your head around it and why those distinctions are important or go talk to someone else.
1 Like
There is no distinction between PLEX Source, Traders and Investors in your categories.
All 3 of them buy PLEX from CCP for cash, so as to re-sell for isk.
Whether they sell it now, or later, doesnt matter.
They all bought it from CCP, inorder to sell it for isk.
I guess you are just trolling now
1 Like