Regarding the dreadnought attack in Tierijev

I just think it’s weird that someone would get access to tech that can bypass cyno jammers and they use it to do something so ineffectual. I don’t think the intention was to do damage as much as to provoke an investigation.

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Mm. I like the way that puzzle-box mind of yours thinks but, no, don’t think so. If the goal is to get something troublesome into an investigator’s hands there are way simpler ways to do it.

That said, loading your data with really-uncomfortable truths or near-truths (the most durable kind of lie) is a great way to distract people. If whoever this is has dirt on black ops the empires have been running on each other, for example, this would be a really good time to let their rivals find it. Not a primary goal, but a complementary line of attack-- booby traps, basically, distracting the investigators and their masters and spreading still more anger and mistrust.

Since it’s already clear someone wants them all at each other’s throats it’d have to be some pretty impressive dirt to make all that much of an impact; various awfulnesses perpetrated across borders have been kind of an open secret for a while. Anything that creates distractions or raises tensions might help, but considering the stakes it still seems like almost anything small enough to have stayed hidden is going to go under the heading of, “We are going to talk about this, but later.”

Doesn’t mean it can’t do damage, but …

I’d say, up: everybody knows the stakes. Almost nobody wants to go where this is leading, and manipulating people who know they’re being manipulated is naturally harder.

Down: finding a solution to this thing is probably going to depend a great deal on goodwill and trust. In the worst case our leaders may have to display what’s apt to look like a naïve and maybe even mad degree of trust despite boiling blood and clenched fists in the face of a parade of atrocities.

Can you look your enemy in the eye and say, “I do not know that you did not do this, but for all our sakes I will believe that you did not”? How long will we be able to keep it up if these attacks continue and escalate-- and, importantly, start sometimes to be really effective?

Considering recent history the tempting response is cynical laughter, but being able to keep that up might be the only way to avoid a war without victors, so, you know, cynicism’s not feeling like a very good option right now. I’d even say, cynicism’s how we die. Heh, if whoever this is keeps it up, even realism might kill us.

It’s foolish by definition to hang one’s hopes on naivete, but. . . .

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Well a lot of wars have been started over misunderstandings and miscalculation. If someone poisons the well deftly enough everyone might take a drink. I just doubt a conspiracy that has the ability to procure advanced cyno tech and finances to fund strikes in highsec would be so blatant unless the spectacle on show right now is just cover or distraction for something else entirely.

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What if this was a bizarre way of actually getting everyone to talk to each other, spread awareness of new technology that could be used against them in a “safe” manner and get them to work together for something yet to come?

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As much as war helps sells goods, and shows potential buyers, a little fighting never hurt anyone that’s only good for business. But weapons and tech are worthless if both sides end up blasting themselves to smouldering wastelands, over what can only be said to be headless stupidity fabricated by an unknown third party.

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I will agree here, it seems unrelated. But I wouldn’t rule out one party sharing information with another unknown

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Uh … basically, if detection is inevitable you might as well lean into it. At first I thought the attacks’ limited nature and effectiveness represented limited resources and that the conspiracy was basically running on a shoestring, hope, and a dim view of people’s ability to trust each other.

But, if they’ve got ships to burn, looking hapless is a good way to start making people question whether it’s really you when you start landing real, telling hits further down the line. Just the way Mr. Aloga was doing, earlier.

And yeah, there’s probably other stuff going on. I mean, somebody seems to be trying to start an enormous war; it’s not the time not to be playing multiple angles.

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I just had a thought

What happened to any of the survivors of these dreads? Hell, new production standards for capital ships have been pushed out adding new bells and whistles that supposedly increase survival chances for crews so… While we’re here scrambling for the files out of these wrecks, shouldn’t the authorities have a wealth of crew members from these ships to interrogate? Figure out if they are who they claim they are?

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I was wondering about that, too, Avio. I think historically in these cases the flagged target for retrieval has often been captain or crew.

Maybe for some reason there hasn’t been anyone to capture?

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There’s another factor here too that I feel is being overlooked and not asked.

The people on these massive ships… Are human, right?

Hell they had support fleets - All piloted and crewed by human beings. Humans have something called Self-preservation. Yet those involved didn’t seem to care all too much about escaping when the deck was stacked against them.

We’re talking about mercenaries here, meaning we say that they acted on behalf of a third party paying them a lump of cash to do these insane stunts. But how much money do these people need to be paid with the risks involved with these stunts?

Starting with Tanoo… Let’s be real, anyone that survived that attack is enslaved. The attack alone was rather suicidal - You’re bombing the capital world of the Mandate, a client State of the Amarr - the response is gonna be swift and brutal. The crews of those ships that attacked Tanoo were ■■■■■■ the second they came into system. They’re either dead or enslaved for this transgression - More so with the Republic denouncing them and essentially making them criminals.

I understand Mercenaries are shot-sighted - I certainly was for a time - but how much money has to be on the table to take that risk? Certainly the risk of such an op of slamming projectiles down on a populated Mandate capital world is obvious to those involved.

The Guristas are some crazy daredevil bastards that take some high-danger jobs - But even THEY know when to say no at times when the risks are absurd.

Now we got this attack in Tierijev and clearly the Black eagles are involved now and… Yeah let’s just say anyone that survived Tierijev and was captured is not having a good time. And that kind of should of be expected with an attack of this magnitude.

So are these people even being motivated by money or… Something else? None of this seems worth a paycheck. What’s the point of doing something for money if you ain’t gonna be alive or free to enjoy it?

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Ah-- yeah. There are a few different ways that might have happened without us being particularly aware of the details.

One option is that the corruption, whatever it is, is not of the rank-and-file aboard those ships but of someone (or ones) up the chain of command. “Need-to-know” can be used to cover a lot of horribles, official or un-.

Another is that these “mercenaries,” either in general or at key positions, simply aren’t. Mercenaries, I mean. It’s hard to figure what you’d have to pay to do something like this, sure, but that just requires that they not be in it for the pay. Pretending to be a mercenary isn’t especially hard; many people, even religious or nationalistic fanatics, can probably pull off an act of that kind, maybe even indefinitely. If you already have a “for the cause” mentality it probably even makes falling into the role as a reliable merc all the easier, since too much self-interest can ruin a reputation.

Then we’ve got possible automation, drones, warp-equipped escape pods with assigned rendezvous/extraction points, suicide pills. . . .

But, basically, start with “they’re probably not, or not all, really mercs” and it seems like the rest flows pretty fast.

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Your Assuming these were New build Dreadnaughts as well. Which I am fairly certain they were not. New standards didnt come into effect till about two weeks ago. Taking build times even if you have all the components to hand, At best the first new Builds would have just started coming off the line. the first attacks of dreads happened I believe even before the new standards were enforced for construction.

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Fair enough - But even still, its not like nobody survived a dreadnought going down even before these new standards. From my understanding, the bigger ships have a much higher survival chances compared to something small like a frigate where… If the core goes up, then the entire hull more or less is too.

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I don’t want to be that person… but told you so, apparently EoM was the hidden buggy man all along. Which I’m a little surprised about given how little they done over the last years

So, Directrix Daphiti just showed me this.

MINMATAR REPUBLIC PRESENTS INNER CIRCLE EVIDENCE EOM DOOMSDAY CULT BEHIND DREADNOUGHT ATTACKS

Oh look, the people trying to get us all killed are the people who want us all dead.

I’m almost disappointed.

Mind, being revealed like this doesn’t at all mean they’ve failed. If they can keep it up. . . .

What i find most intriguing is how the hell did they managed to get the special tech? Of all the organizations, they always seemed to me the least… capable one.

They certainly were rare, which conveyed a low level of activity. However, the very few times that I have encountered them, their ships left behind quite a lot of stuff. Getting equipment is apparently one of their strengths.

As a rule, you don’t survive for a millennium and a half as a heretical cult by being actually incompetent, Ms. Tsukiyo. The MIO definitely aren’t, so. . . .

The Sani Sabik generally seem to survive by diversity, persistent allure, and semi-spontaneous rebirth; they thrive on disenchantment and ambition. They’re sort of the error-state of Amarrian belief, so new cults can arise as fast as old ones are destroyed.

The EOM doesn’t seem like they’d have the same allure as the Sabik power-cults, though-- way less likely to be revived from some bored minor noble discovering their great-uncle’s secret library of banned books-- which means this cult is still probably the very first one.

Least-capable? I’m afraid it’s probably kind of the opposite.

Getting started by royalty and staying out of sight are a recipe for success. I was skeptical when Aram mentioned EoM because I forgot they existed. Being forgotten certainly contributes to surviving for fifteen hundred years, and impeccable connections go a long way in the manipulation game.

“Surviving” and “being effective” i place in distinct categories.

A cockroach may survive a lot of things, even outlast us, but it is not a threat compared to other beings.

For such a grandiose title, killing what, tens, hudrends of thousands of people in attacks that were negligible is aiming for the moon and shooting oneself at the foot. (Unless they were aiming at very specific targets like the CEP CEO)

If that wasthe opening salvo and more elaborate things happen, then it will be interesting.

Still, how did they get the tech?