Regarding the dreadnought attack in Tierijev

So far be it for me, a filthy Gurista supporter to ever insert his opinions on these incredibly sensitive diplomatic matters…

But after witnessing the Dreadnought attack today via holonet and reading up on the information coming out of it. Tierijev IV was besieged by orbital bombardment by several Phoenix-class dreadnoughts with identifiers pinning them to be property of Expert Intervention, a mercenary corporation heavily tied to the larger Nugoeihuvi Corporation (Will shorten them to NOH from here on out.

Now, me being a worthless Guri scumbag… It would be remarkably easy for me to take this attack and use it to smear the reputation of NoH and by extension PKN - Whom I’m very critical about - and go on about their evils and so on

Except… I don’t think they’re even behind this.

I don’t like the State, I have reasons to believe plenty of the questionable ■■■■ reported about them. This attack however - Out of all the dreadnought incidents we’ve seen thus far - Is the one that comes off as the most fraudulent . The attacks between the Amarr and Matari mercs if anything were plausible (yet also suspicious) but this attack seems to have nothing to do with NoH

Like… Why? Why would NoH have anything to do with this? Way it’s looking, they’re being set up to be the fall guy, more so with Nugoeihuvi branded rifles being found among the wreckage of the dreadnoughts. I just can’t see them going as far as posting up dreadnoughts in orbit of a Federal world and hurling nukes at them… It’s far too extreme for me to believe NoH is behind this.

Someone absolutely threw warheads at that planet, but I wanna put the argument out there that NoH wern’t the ones handing the orders here and… Well are being framed. And I think this is tying into an incident earlier today with the CEP spire being bombed. This Scope article even points out that this attack is happening directly after this incident and in my opinion, is connected - But not in the way you think.

Whoever really is pulling these attacks off I’d argue is as responsible for the CEP spire bombing AND these dreadnought attack. What you’d want to do here is paint the correlation that NoH saw this as an attack by the Federation and NoH responds by sending in their pet mercenary force to bomb a Federal planet along their borders. The mobilization for such a thing is way too much of a knee-jerk and seems planned well in advance. The bombing alone creates a ■■■■■■■■■■■ of confusion on the homefront and leaders in the State will be scrambling to figure out what’s going on before they start worrying about anything outside their borders.

There’s also another… Interesting detail in that the dreadnoughts were sporting Raata colors… Which I found to be a very curious choice of attire if this was some sanctioned response by NoH.

According to the Scope…

The status of the Tierijev border system was disputed by the Caldari and Gallente governments for many decades after the end of the Caldari-Gallente War. Although the system was determined to be Gallente territory under the Yulai Accords, it remains a sore point of contention for Caldari nationalists. The Gallente Federation maintains an extensive defense complex on Tierijev IV, and there are a variety of settlements and industrial colonies on the planet.

The mention of this diplomatic L being a sore point for Caldari Nationalists makes me feel the use of Raata colors was a "Dog whistle’ for the warhawks State side to be in support of this action. Invoke some tension that this system is theirs afterall…

The other dreadnought attacks were already suspected of Fraud… But this one in particular seems the most suspicious of them all.

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I contend Mr. Yaken that your analysis is sound. It mirrors my own analysis. With the exception of the attack on Floseswin, none of the dreadnoughts attack served any tactical purpose that I can discern. None of my usual sources turn up any dirt, any orders, any scraps of the evidences one can usually find after the fact when we know what we missed.

Either the tradecraft employed here by all these PMCs, none of which are known for subtlety, is impeccable. Or some group is orchestrating all these events to coincide and create a war.

The strategic purpose of an attack on Tierijev could only be to distract domestic elements in the State but it’s highly unclear why NoH would be the corporation that would be behind this. Lai Dai is the only one that could possibly be desperate enough to try such a gambit.

But even with that very thin veneer of a cause, the use of those hacked Cyno Beacons, which no one seems to know how to make or procure but all PMCs seem to have in stock magically does more to disprove NoH involvement and support the theory that a single party is orchestrating the events than anything else.

The Floseswin incident is harder to analyze. The format of the attack matches other dreadnought attacks but the Cyno Beacon used is a standard one. Anyone could have done that attack and a surprise bombardment to support a ground offensive is, on the face of it, within the realm of possibilities. Hopefully evidence from the recovered logs and from ground intelligence from both sides as well as from The Scope could shine a light eventually.

Now, I’m but a single intelligence analyst and used starship salesman, so take what I say with a grain of salt.

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Not even them

They’re caught up in some questionable ■■■■ as is right now, but I don’t think even they would go this far. And that’s me trying to cut them some credit.

Check this out - Another detail. A Golem was amongst the attacking fleet and in that cargo hold of the Golem were Viral Agents… Ones to target those of Gallente genetics I’m too believe.

Like… Why? Lai Dai I know hit Intaki prime not too long ago, but that had some defined goal as far as I understand, this attack on the other hand is way more genocidal than just a simple smash and grab like Lai Dai was running on Intaki Prime.

I’m too believe this is something ALL the empires have in stock, and the PMCs approved by them are given access to the beacons to use for their own needs.

Bit of the same boat to be honest. So hey, your analyst is as good as mine.

Like the old saying goes, in every crisis there is opportunity. Looks like there is the potential for a lot of future opportunities.

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■■■■, looks like my guess was kind of off. But if this latest attack didnt seem suspicious on its own, the fact that it was done during the explosion at the CEP building should have been a good hint.

Someone wants interstellar war, and is in a bad rush for it.

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I feel as if they have showed their hand with this attack. And they prolly wasn’t expecting a Gurista who has no stake in the State or Fed to come pointing this stuff out and not leaving the Loyalists of both sides to bicker at one another

The use of Raata colors on their ships was a… Well red flag for me. Seemed very inappropriate of a military response to be using and came off as trying to be symbolic. After noticing that I had to dig deeper into what is going on.

Question is if the politicians of the State or Fed are gonna see though this or if we’re gonna see some very very violent tensions soon.

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Regardless of who carried out this attack, as well as the other attacks, they must be brought to justice. I can only hope that the combined investigative efforts of the various empires will be enough to uncover the reasoning behind this spate of attacks on planets across the cluster.

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Well that’s assuming these attacks don’t prevent one another from cooperating in the first place. All these attacks have the objective of tarnishing diplomatic relationships and give the victim the impression that the other side is not to be held to their word and cooperated with. So far these attacks have been quite extreme too - the fact that there were Caldari ships in orbit of a Gallente world carrying ■■■■■■■ viral agents of all things Is prolly gonna rub Federal ambassadors the wrong way.

For as much ire as I may have towards the Caldari State, even I am able to tell something odd is going on here. I would hope that our elected officials would be able to see things the same way. One can only hope, anyway.

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Well for your nation’s sake friend, I hope the people of the Federation didn’t elect a bunch of warhawks who are gonna jump on this opportunity to start something.

Both the State and the Federation have been calling for a cooling of tensions and trying to mediate things between the four empires. I earnestly hope this continues. I entirely agree with you when you say that this reeks of a false flag attack.

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As a Hawk myself, even I know that the allowance of bombardment on planetary bodies would spell disaster for the entirety of New Eden. No Hawk would support this. Now a U-Nat…

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See, I’ve been looking at it like this…

Thing about mercs, what keeps mercenaries in demand is plausible deniability. The ability to hire a proxy force to fight your battles, then on the public stage deny ever hiring them.

This whole diplomatic nightmare going on start off with Minmatar Mercs hitting the Mandate’s capital world - Amarr mercs return the favor in staging their own attacks, and now both sides are sizing each other up. This show over there is plausible when you take into consideration the violtile relationship the two have. Both of them are denying being involved with what these mercenaries did, but hey - That’s what plausible deniability is for, right? Why should the other take their word for it?

So the Republic and Empire are already heated

But then you have a Gallente backed mercenary force take a shot at an Amarrian system the Federation and Empire have disputed over in the past - Now the Amarrians are looking at this like the Republic’s allies are tossing their weight in and trying to assert their claim over that territory. So now the Amarrians are heated this at whole bloc

The Gallente of course, deny this as all these attacks are suspicious as they are - SO of course they make a move to deescalate this. The Federation hasn’t been hit at this point, it has no reason to want any blood from anybody. The State has no stake in this aswell besides being an ally to the Amarr, and most likely not wanting to be dragged into another war after the Trig invasions - Are playing it cool and going along with the Federation to try and deescalate this.

So now we got this incident… Where a Caldari backed mercenary force heavily associated with one of their Mega corporations launches a strike on a Federal system that the State and Federation had disputes over after the Caldari-Gallente war, drudging up ancient history and opening these wounds.

Now the Federation has been hit… Hit by their oldest rival nation. Now the State is trying to reassert a claim over this system again using mercenary forces that you can plausibly deny.

Now, what’s probably going to happen next, is that another Gallente mercenary outfit is gonna do a “Response” attack in State territory. Maybe its another dread fleet? Maybe it’s something far more surgical. The Federation is going deny doing this much like the State is going to - But why should they take one another’s word for it?

There’s been some stuff circulating recovered from the wrecks, data of some sorts. All encrypted and probably hiding all the secrets to whats going on

… But I feel as all of it was intended to be recovered. Why carry such sensitive stuff on a combat vessel? Maybe the ones behind this put some stuff on them to escalate the tensions even further.

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I’m expecting some sort of response attack, yes. Perhaps we’ve already seen something, maybe there are going to be signs of Gallente attack on the CEP Spire on New Caldari Prime. Considering what’s happened lately, I wouldn’t believe the Feds are behind it unless I saw a LOT of proof.

I think you’re right there too, the “evidence” left over after the attacks very well could have been planted and ensured that they got scooped up and leaked.

Attacking Tierijev also doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The Amarr assault on Floseswin made sense because there was already ground forces battling for the planet. The Empire troops took advantage and reportedly directed the dreadnaught’s attacks. But simply bombarding a disputed planet, with no military backup, no ground forces, no naval support, doesn’t make any sense. Even if the attack went off without a hitch, it would mean nothing besides a blatant declaration of war; something the State is very opposed to at this time.

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If Im understanding it right, the “target” for that planet was the Gallente Defense Complex on the surface. Really sophisticated fortifications If I’m to believe, it would make occupying the world extremely difficult. It can shoot missiles down, so I imagine it can also shoot down troop transports.

So what do you do? Hire mercenaries to bomb it to oblivion so THEN You can move in the ground forces and really occupy it…

The occupation part would never happen, but that’s the logic Im seeing here.

Whoever it is… they’re idiots.

This is the fourth attack we’ve seen now—assuming the Floseswin dreads weren’t just Sarum forces getting bored—and in every case but one, capsuleer subcapitals swarmed in to kill the dreads. The one time they didn’t, it was in lowsec, and capsuleer supercapitals dropped in to kill them.

Whoever is doing this clearly hasn’t as much smarts as a box of rocks, because if they did, then two of the five dreads would have been fitted with HAWs to keep the subcaps away. Frankly, I was shocked the Moroi didn’t have some. It’s like they want eggers’ attention more than they want to actually achieve whatever purpose these bombardments serve.

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Honestly, this is likely what they do want. or at least, attention in a broader sense.

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That’s what I’m guessing

This wasn’t really an attempt to accomplish an actual bombing, but horrify the nations enough to raise tensions and get everyone heated.

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I basically agree with your analysis of the entire situation.

The Republic-Empire apparent Tit for tat attacks are the most plausible, considering we’ve been fighting the same war on and off for about 1000 years now. Hell, given the precedent of Rogue Minmatar elements attacking the Empire in both Krishal Muritor, spirits keep him, and in the Elder Fleet, the very first Brutor Vanguard attack in Tanoo would almost not be out of place. I admit that is exactly where my thoughts first turned to when I head of the attacks.

Had it just stayed at that, then we would very likely be having a hot war in our hands. But the moment you have this repeating pattern across the cluster, it becomes apparent that something else is going on.

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More so when the attacks are always a detachment of Dreadnoughts. As if it was a god damn calling card.

No attempt to change up the scales, it’s always Dreadnuaghts - planet. At first with Tanoo and Flosewin, you could chalk it up to “Eye for an eye” a response to meet the response.

The people behind this obviously have resources and clout. Yet you stick to a repetitive pattern that became apparent with the Gallente merc group, and drilled home here.

So either A. The mastermind behind is throwing creativity out the window for the sake of raw fast shock value.

Or B. Is internationally doing this as a kind of calling card.

Both possibilities aren’t the brightest…

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