After the alleged Gallente attack on Girani-Fa, it’s starting to look a lot more like a premeditated attempt to raise tensions between the empires and distract them from whatever plans the mastermind has in store. It’s not a particularly well-conceived one, however, given how blatant the pattern is already, but the empires probably can’t see that. There’s also too many suspects to choose from when considering who might plan something like this. It could be anyone from Zorya, Sansha to Capsuleer No.Pi. We’ll need more information as it comes up.
However, with the current pattern, it’s likely the planners will attempt more false flags in future. I’m not familiar with the cartography of the vast Gallentean-Amarrian border to guess where Amarrian mercs will ‘retaliate’, but the one after that could be especially damaging to Gallente-Caldari relations. Phoenix dreadnoughts will likely start appearing out of nowhere to shoot up a border Gallente system next. Could be any one of them, but the most likely targets would be Iyen-Oursta, Algoglie or Luminaire, given their significance in the Gallente-Caldari War.