after the special Stellar Event in Turnur caused by the Stellar Transmuter Prototype that was anchored to the local star (https://universe.eveonline.com/new-eden-news/breaking-turnur-devastated-by-extreme-stellar-event) there has been a lot of discussion about the potential risks to the other systems in which Amarrian Stellar Transmuter Prototypes are deployed.
A lot of the analysis seems to focus on the number of planets within the system, but this is not a good risk indicator by itself. While it seems clear that the effect of the stellar event dissipates over greater distances, distances between planets are not evenly distributed between systems.
From the event in Turnur, we can establish 2 datapoints: The Planet Turnur I was devastated by the effect, to an degree that burned the whole planetary crust and vaporized the atmosphere. The Planet Turnur II was relatively unaffected.
The Orbital Radius of Turnur I is 0.417 AU.
The Orbital Radius of Turnur II is 2.553 AU.
This is a relatively grand difference in comparison to many other systems. For a very preliminary analysis, we can assume
(a) that planets that are as close or closer to their star as Turnur I face nearly guaranteed destruction.
(b) that planets that are as far away or further from their star as Turnur II are presumably safe.
I have generated a small diagram to show the relative distance of the planets in all relevant systems:
We can such say with confidence that Egmar I and Egmar II as well as Vard I are in immediate danger of destruction. The good news is that Vard I and Egmar II are Lava planets, and as such will probably not have large populations and rather resilient facilities.
Egmar I is the closest planet to any star in all three systems and should be a critical target for any evacuation effort.
It is more difficult to estimate the effects in-between the distances we could observe in Turnur. But it is important to note that the following planets are significantly closer to the distance of Turnur I to their Star than Turnur II:
Vard II, III and IV
Egmar III, IV, V, VI and VII (Egmar VIII is around the midpoint in distance between Turnur I and II)
Also, it should be noted that the effect of the Stellar Event might still do signifcant damage and make planets inhospitable even if the damage is lesser than on Turnur I. Even half the energy affecting a planet in comparison to Turnur I might still cook off oceans and superheat the atmosphere, even though it might not burn the planetary crust to a depth of multiple meters and strip off the atmosphere.
As such all of the planets mentioned above should be seen as priority targets for safekeeping and evacuation efforts. Especially Egmar VI should be the object of further studies as it is a temperate planet that is closer than 1 AU to its star and as such a high-risk world.
I will create additional calculations of the effect strength of the Stellar Event and add these once they are finished but these preliminary findings seemed to be important enough to publish immediately for all concerned parties and peer review.