Urging Caution: Turnur Catastrophe and Seyllin Incident Comparison

Good evening, summit. I come to you all personally with a request.

It is no secret that my area of expertise revolves around diplomacy and finances. That said, I will be the first to admit when I am in way over my head here.

For a month or so, I have been researching information on the Seyllin Incident due to a concern that the stellar transmuters being utilized may actually cause some sort of problem with the star itself. I know I am not the first to bring this concern to attention, and I’m sure I most certainly will not be the last. When it was mentioned about the class of stars that were being utilized (blue stars), it reminded me of a report I had read long ago. The Seyllin Report, completed by the Lead Researcher Dr. Raimus Amira, details the events that lead up to the Seyllin Incident, as well as a summary of the findings and further hypotheses on what may have caused such a thing to happen.

When I read this report, there is much I do not understand; however, when the most recent Scope article was released and the comparison to the Seyllin Incident was brought up, I grew increasingly concerned as to what this might entail. With the information provided in the Seyllin Report, I am requesting that scientists (who will understand much better than I ever can) begin projections in the event what is happening can actually be linked to the events in YC111.

I am hoping someone can run some simulations to see just where other systems may be affected in the event the magnetic field shifts. For more details on this possibility, please see page 10 of the Seyllin Report. I realize it may be difficult to project, but I think it is worth it to look into. I pray that I am wrong and this is all just a coincidence that can be chalked up to an overactive imagination. But in the event I am not…these projections may end up saving lives in systems across the cluster.

In addition, the formation of wormholes after the Seyllin incident should not be ignored in this potential issue. With news reporting Triglavians’ increase in activity and behaviours, it seems a little too much like a coincidence to me.

I ask this not just of us capsuleers who have the resources to spare in such an endeavour–I also ask this of all people in power of the four empires. If there is a chance to save lives outside of never-ending wars, we should take it. It was done originally when the Seyllin Incident happened, as assistance was offered to the Federation in the investigation and evacuation of people by then-State Executor Heth, CONCORD, ORE, and even Serpentis. I do not bring this up to incite panic, but instead to cover all the bases of preparing for potential catastrophes that may happen.

Thank you for taking the time to read this. I pray deeply that I am simply concerned over nothing.

Julianni Avala

2 Likes

In brief, it appears that the Imperial efforts to replicate Triglavian technology have allowed for the generation of unstable Isogen isotopes, but not the complete collection of them. If stellar instability and a mass ejection event appear eminent, then we should assume a Seyllin-style event will follow. To what degree spatial topography will be changed by this event remains a question.

The Consortium is currently working on diplomatic efforts with our Republic associates to assist in relocation of potentially-affected civilians. Likewise, humanitarian relief in the form of food, medical, and other aid is likely.

Lastly, I would advise a cessation by the Empire and Republic in experimentation in stellar manipulation technology.

The potential perils are too great.

I’d of course solicit engagement from all concerned parties for assistance of any affected populations, including relocation to the desired location of the peoples’ evacuation, and so forth.

2 Likes

This is exactly what concerns me and why I am hoping someone more scientifically inclined will try to create some simulations so we can potentially evacuate other possibly affected systems/planets before it is too late.

But hey! At least there are no signs of hairline fractures!

Yes, I’m being a bit of a smartass, but you know, this is why we need the Empire to share their information on these things. Because right now, the Republic might not be capable of shutting them off, and they absolutely need to be shut down.

2 Likes

Perhaps I should be a bit more clear in what I’m trying to say.

I’m not pointing fingers, I’m not saying people are keeping information to themselves.

What I’m trying to do is ask for people to get some of their own measurements and projections based on what the Seyllin Report says is possible. Aka: project the other systems that may be affected based on magnetic field alignment with the transmuter. I think it would also be worth doing the same for the other systems.

I’m hoping this doesn’t turn into a debate between parties of who did what or who is hiding what or any of that nonsense. This is an appeal to scientists, and leadership of empires that can have their scientists do calculations too.

The research of stellar phenomena isn’t exactly our domain. But, in keeping with our humanitarian activities, the Serpentis Corporation has authorized the Krait Cartel to offer evacuation and medical aid for those in the affected system. We’ve begun allocating and organizing resources to move to the area, and hope to begin operations soon.

In the interest of saving innocent lives, we would formally request both the respective navies, along with capauleer organizations, in the area of operations to not interfere with our efforts. Any organizations likewise running humanitarian operations are welcome to contact us, to better facilitate efforts. Donations of materials and personal are welcome, but not expected.

Amarr also:

2 Likes

Then let me be clearer, as well:

There are two more of these things in operation, and they need to be shut down now. But it’s unclear if anyone outside of the Empire knows how to shut them down. You’re worried about a Seyllin incident, and that’s totally valid and legitimate, and I don’t fault you for that. But let me remind you:

Personally, I’m worried about far worse than Seyllin. This is the map of the three stellar harvesters:

The regions directly ‘north’ of the triangle they form are, well, the State. The Citadel and Forge are just as close as Essence and Everyshore. And Seyllin was ‘just’ a radiation burst, then a mass ejection (though obviously, a large one). As I said in the thread about maintenance, we still don’t know that these things failing can’t trigger full-on supernovae, which would threaten life in systems many light-years from the exploding stars.

And again, not the worst-case scenario. The farthest separation between these stars is less than 4.25 LY. If this is going to be some kind of Isogen-fueled explosion, then we have to look at our other example: Caroline’s Star.

No, Caroline’s Star didn’t have any major impact on us… but it was instantly visible all over New Eden. Simultaneously. Which means that the normal ‘ok, well, it’s light-years away, even the radiation will take months to get to the nearest system’? It’s not a safe assumption. If we get an Isogen event, the effects could be felt immediately… including the effects on the other two harvesters. Or on the harvesters in Poch. For all of the ‘oh, they’re in the Abyss’, BlOps’ing out of Poch demonstrates those systems are physically exactly where they were. Which means they can be impacted.

Am I saying we need to expect the worst-case doomsday scenario of a cascade-effect where one by one, all of the stars with Stellar Harvesters become Isogen bombs that wipe out all life across multiple constellations and shut down every stargate in New Eden? No. We shouldn’t expect that. But we should damned well be taking steps to minimize the chance of it, and the first (and, at this point, only) step we can take is: shut these three harvesters down, immediately.

And again, you’re right, we need the Republic, and CONCORD, to be monitoring this closely and getting what data we can about what’s going on. And we should absolutely be evacuating the 4 stations in Turnur, and I cannot imagine the Parliament, RSS, Boundless Creation, and Freedom Extension aren’t scrambling to do that. But we also need to shut these things down, in Turnur and in the other two systems.

Seyllin was downright benevolent in the scope of ‘What could go wrong when you screw with a star?’

3 Likes

Looking back at similar events like Seyllin and the formation of Pochven and interpreting what we know so far, I think we can assemble a decently accurate hypothesis for the effects of the event that is to occur on spacetime topology.

First of all, what we are seeing is the effect of Triglavian stellar transmution, but the stars instability has not reached anywhere near so-called “liminality”. The stars that currently form Pochven created a catastrophic failure in the stargate network when a sufficient number reached this point. The respected astrophysicist M. Scotti has documented these events in great detail. However, considering the stargate network continued to operate with many stars in this state, we can likely assume the effect of this event on the stargates will be limited.

It should be of note however, that stellar transmution technology nevertheless strongly affects wormhole generation, be it natural or artificial (i.e. stargates). Since Pochven, previously unseen types of wormhole appeared in Pochven and known space ( dubbed C729, F216, R081, U372 and X450). These wormholes not only have characteristics not encountered anywhere else, they are also intrinsically linked to different types of space, similar to how other natural wormholes have a preferred “class” of wormhole to connect to.

The study of wormholes is a very deep field with many mysteries and unanswered questions, but considering all of the above, it would not be surprising to see a slight disturbance in natural wormhole formation in the system following the event. We might even see new wormholes forming leading to this system or its surroundings.

The other incident heavily related to this is of course Seyllin. That incident however, was a very specific occurrence with a lot of different factors that are very likely not present in the current situation. The magnetic field shifts you mention were likely caused by massive caches of isogen-5. As our esteemed colleague @Makoto_Priano mentioned, the prototype transmuters generated a number of isotopes, but likely not even close to the quantities involved in the Seyllin incident.

In the end, we will have to simply wait and see, many things are still unknown and we cannot be absolutely sure of what is to come.

As for the physical damage this event will cause, Seyllin is likely an excellent model. I do not have the data myself but to my understanding a similar radiation burst and CME is likely to occur. Sadly, there is very little us capsuleer-scientists can do. The damage is already done and the best we can do is help evacuate the effected. I dont concern myself with politics much but I do hope evacuation can be completed in the limited timespan.

Thank you all for taking the time to reply. Based on the responses, it appears my personal request can be disregarded as the ramblings of someone who apparently knows nothing of the situation at hand.

I apologize for wasting people’s time.

Not at all. But it’s only the beginning of what’s needed.

Rather than speculating about what is going to happen or who is going to be affected or not, let us first try to prevent disaster from happening. To the Turnur transmuter as well as the other two.

I believe assisting in gathering more data thereby speeding up the current research project might be key to preventing a major catastrophe. The anwer to these unexpected events should be in the data.

I have delivered another 1500 reports to the Mehatoor base yesterday, but that is merely a drop in the bucket. Please assist.

4 Likes

Dear Capsuleers,

as others have suggested a variety of courses of actions, I wish to add my observations and recommendations as well.

Firstly, I agree that the utmost priority is the collection of as much data as possible: Given that the Stars are already destabilized, it should be our priority to make sure that we will gain any long-term benefit from the experiment that we can. Given the observed capabilities of Triglavian technology, the results of their succesfull integration into the capabilities of the Cluster certainly will outweigh the reduction in short-term cost associated with any mitigation efforts.

Secondly, I have seen several suggestions about turning off the other transmuters immediately. This is as a potentially risky course of action:

(A) The uncontrolled ending of the Transmutation process might have even more volatile consequences than the continued operation of a transmuter, especially if the stellar changes are due to inefficiencies in the Transmuters containment procedures. A badly contained reaction might still be preferrable to an uncontained reaction.

(B) Triglavian technology ususally operates in Triads. The most stable configuration for the weaving of Pochven has turned out to be (as prognosticated by some of us) to be a configuration of 3^3 systems. As such, while the Amarr Empire has not commented on their knowledge, it is likely that they have findings that indicated the concurrent use of three transmuters might bring better results than a signular one (why else install three at once, given the expenditure necessary for projects like these?). Removing parts of the operating transmuter triad might lead to additional destabilization.

As such, I’d advice against shutting down (or worse, attacking to shut down) additional transmuters.

Thirdly, it seems to me that the faction with the best chances of helping to stabilize the current situation is The Convocation of Triglav outside the struggle. They are, also, presumably aware of the situation given distinct changes in the clades operational patterns over the last week (with some insecurity about the causal relationship mostly caused by our inability to filter out if any changes are due to the situation around Athounon).

As such, the Empires should seek out the cooperation of the Convocation in sobornost prayers and invite their participation in the advancement of the cluster instead of trying to continue the current stand-off.

Signed digitally,
Scius Falkenhaupt
Kybernaut Researcher

1 Like

Has it been fielded to the Republic Parliament, that the situation in Turnur could be used in a possible “Trade” with the Triglavians for Skarkon?

This might be non-optimal option but regaining Skarkon and its links to space in that region would be of utmost strategic importance. But then again losing Turnur to the Triglavians even to save the system temporarily might not make Minmatar Republic Fleet commanders uncomfortable with Triglavian wormholes and players bailing out inside not only contested space but for all intents and purposes in the heartland of Minmatar Republics Frontier.

The only concern, is negotiating with the Clades might be tricky. Svarborg might be highly oppositional to Minmatar Republic Regaining Skarkon. And Minmatar Republic Fleet might not be as happy to regain Skarkon because the fighting between Angel Cartel and other criminal factions might resume with the Republic. I haven’t heard any recent news on the guerilla war in the Skarkon system between Triglavians of Svarborg Clade and the various Minmatar guerillas and forces trapped in Pochven. Has there been a major “quieting” on that front? And Republic Parliament has sworn an oath to regain Skarkon. So there is a major problem in this concern because this is a ticking time bomb for all parties involved.

As was discussed more openly last night: Turnur is not going liminal. None of the liminality structures the Trigs used are in place. None of the ‘let’s make this into Poch’ activities have been or are being conducted. There is nothing to ‘trade’.

When is it supposed to have stopped? Just because it’s not getting publicity because of Skarkon doesn’t mean anything.

And we all remember how trustworthy EDENCOM was that EoM [Equilibrium of Man] was able to infiltrate and nearly put the entire cluster on collision course of open warfare. Besides the fact EDENCOM didn’t confiscate the captured Triglavian Technology from the Amarr, is another damning issue. And Minmatar Republic is now feeling the cost of such folly of trusting an Amarr Dominated Organization. Do we want to trust a force that has not had the Partnership of the Four Empires concerns and interests at the get go? The next threat to New Eden, will probably see one or two Empires side with the threat to get back at those who took advantage of the Triglavian Invasion.

The Minmatar Republic lost the least among the four Empires, but the losses were extreme and have made their territory a backwater. And now a greater tragedy is unfolding where its frontier will suffer further depredations due to outsiders interventions and pretensions of “Partnership” via EDENCOM.

EDENCOM will have to step up in this crises, or else their inaction with the unfolding disaster will be laid at the feet of them and their Amarrian puppet masters. Its not Amarr lives that are being put at risk by completely incompetent experiments in Minmatar Territories. We are suffering indirectly from Amarr predation using EDENCOM as the cloak to hide behind.

Minmatar Republic has begun to put out diplomatic feelers and overtures to the Triglavians via backdoor channels. Due to EDENCOMS lack of action in condemning the Amarr in this Disaster. This was preventable.

You should be grateful that Minmatar Republic held Bei, or else the precarious long trade route to Dodixie and Jita and its backroutes would have been closed forever.

Since I can only speak for a small part of EDENCOM, especially the area of section 7, I would like to point out again that we have pointed out several times through the communication channels that are given to us, that the activation of the Stellar Transmuter is not a good idea, because there are still too many key elements of information missing.

The empires are playing with these alien technologies as if it were a toy, which it definitely is not.

On our communication platform, to which the last outgoing warning to the Amarr Empire went out, was not heard. (EDENCOM Section 7 Message to Amarr Empire - YouTube)

We can’t do more than pass on the information given to us as Section 7 to the public. If no one here wants to listen, we can’t change that.

We will continue to do our job, which is to secure the Highsec and fight the Triglavians, but we cannot and will not get into political arguments.

That is not EDENCOM’s job.

Only one empire is activating these things.

we rebuilding the desintegrator technology, but didn’t even know their real mechanics. Is that not usage like a toy ?

Do you really think the entropic disintegrator is beyond the understanding of the weapons’ technicians who designed the Nergal? They just happened to, for example, upgrade the Damavik hull in a way that made the Entropic Disintegrator fire farther and deliver more destructive power… without understanding the weapon they enhanced?

Really?