Yeah, but understanding the causes of the problem is part of how you fix it, man. If you don’t understand what the causes are, you can’t address those causes. It’d be like trying to use supply-side economics to fix the 2007 downturn, when we had massive amounts of oversupply and factories sitting idle because there was insufficient demand.
Identifying the problem doesn’t let you fix it until you know what the causes are. It just lets you address the symptoms. Why is just a war dec enough to drive players out of the game? Well, they stop playing for a week on that alt. Ok. Why aren’t they playing on another alt? Why aren’t they coming back, after? These are all important facets of the problem that can’t be addressed without understanding what all of the causes of their behavior are.
Yes, CCP have ‘the data’. But we’ve also seen, in the past, that they misread their own data, and don’t have the wherewithal to really extrapolate player behavior and motivations from the data points they collect. I could ask you for a lot more detail in precisely what data they have—and that information might seriously allay the concerns that they could be misreading it—but you can’t tell me, and we both know that.
Because we don’t. That’s just it, Brisc, given the evidence we do have… there is no reason to trust that they will come to the right conclusions. Given comprehensive data, I trust Aryth and Innominate to be able to interpret it, because I know they’ve demonstrated that ability in the past. I trust you to do it, cuz being able to understand that sort of thing and extrapolate is your job, and you’re successful in your job. But I don’t know that the data being presented to you is comprehensive, or that you guys are the ones doing that analysis.
From the minutes, it looks like they presented you data and conclusions based on that data. Not conclusions that amount to ‘this is how we plan to fix it’ but conclusions at the level of ‘so this is what we believe the causal relationship to be’. And they might be right. But they’ve a long history of not being able to interpret that data, so we’re skeptical.
But even though we’re skeptical, we’re trying to offer ideas about how to fix the issue as it’s presented to us. That’s all we can do. And I know it’s frustrating when you’re hearing a lot of ‘why should we trust this?’ I get that. But EVE players don’t hedge their bets about CCP’s data interpretation skill because we want CCP to be wrong. We do it because it’s the pattern of observed behavior we have to go on.
And it’s not that we think they’re ‘massaging’ the data… just that they’re wrong… because they have been. Often. Entosis on interceptors wasn’t going to be a thing, remember? Natural decay wouldn’t be needed. Drone spam wasn’t a problem. The Ishtar wasn’t wildly overpowered. The Ferox “nerfs” had a measurable effect. There’d never be more than 4 or 5 titans in the game. Battleships were 3 years away at launch. Nobody would live in wormholes.
So… yeah. We’re a little skeptical. We want them to get it right. Nobody here doesn’t want that. We’re just… often-burned, you know?