The Rise and Fall in Bitcoin Value

Top cryptocurrency Bitcoin could tumble below $30,000 this year as the air comes out of the crypto bubble, according to US investment firm Invesco’s list of “improbable but possible” outcomes for 2022.

“The mass marketing of Bitcoin reminds us of the activity of stockbrokers in the run-up to the 1929 crash,” Paul Jackson, Invesco’s global head of asset allocation, said in a note on Monday as quoted by Business Insider.

“We think it is not too much of a stretch to imagine Bitcoin falling below $30,000 this year,” Jackson said, adding he believes there’s at least a 30% chance of it happening.

Bitcoin surged from around $33,000 at the start of last year to as high as $69,000 in November. It has since plummeted to trade at around $41,800 per token as of Tuesday.

According to Jackson, Bitcoin could be seen as a financial mania, which means steep losses may soon be on their way. “A loss of 45% is experienced in the 12 months after the peak of a typical financial mania,” he said.

If the digital asset follows that pattern, its price will fall to between $34,000 and $37,000 by October, Jackson said, noting that a steeper drop is possible to below $30,000.

However, that scenario is far from certain, he cautioned. “Last year, we spoke of Bitcoin falling below $10,000, but instead it reached a peak of around $68,000.”

Take note, CCP.

CCP doesn’t do anything with Bitcoin

You do realize that the price already had a > 50% drop to $30k in summer after the “mania” at the beginning of the year? Somehow this legacy financial “experts” can’t even read a chart and are always 10 steps behind everything happening.

You should go read about the halving cycles if you want to actually understand what is going on.

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I certainly shall, thanks.

Yay! Another Bitcoin thread.

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It was always a scam. 90% of the people “mining” it didn’t even know what their computer was processing and it always required donations like a church.

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Scam or not, a lot of people made a lot of RW money off it.

I know a guy who’s brother bought a handful of bitcoin several years ago when it was still young. He sold it last year and was able to buy a house for all cash. :dizzy_face:

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Yea, don’t get me wrong. The next time I see an opportunity for wealth redistribution I’m going to take it. Still a scam. That money had to come from someone.

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Floki Inu!

You’re going to invest your money on purpose into something you believe to be a scam?

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People invest their money into things that have a return. Bitcoin isn’t full of success stories only you know. It’s like someone who can play poker on a professional level and is able to count cards. They end up taking from the house that others contributed to.

Well if you say so. I just buy every month a little if it’s not super overextended. Is that like counting cards already? Because it seems to work great

Well, if I put $100 into something and can withdraw 6 figures later, that money didn’t come from me. But I bet when the price goes down due to that very phenomena happening on a massive scale it hurts whomever put that money into it. It’s basically wealth distribution at the expense of investors and companies. It’s like doing one good thing yesterday and believing you’re entitled more tomorrow for what you did yesterday.

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I did not understand a word you just said. Rainbow chart says “Still cheap”, probably gona buy more Bitcoin this month. Lol

I should still have 0.04 BTC in a 10+ year old wallet… Hmm, wondering if it still works…

P.S. Yeah still alive, just no time to play or even visit.

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My take on it (sorry about any odd formatting, using phone while in bed, back pain issues):

  1. Unlike government backed currency, crypto is NOT “too big to fail”, regardless of amount of investors from the top tier firms.

  2. Large, well established crypto like BTC and ETH have the greatest overall chance of at least surviving, if not thriving.
    ETH has right now in my quasi humble opinion the best odds of actually thriving, while BTC seems on (relatively/slightly) shaky ground due to power consumption and related environmental concerns, unless they have some plan I have no clue yet about to also migrate to something less electricity-demanding.
    Still, BTC is by far the more notorious, so it does get some grace period either way, and might even keep being a contender even if they keep up with PoW instead of something else (assuming any hypothetical restrictive global-reaching legislation still at least would allow for mining if waste heat is used in a meaningful and/or economically reasonable manner).

  3. When you get down to brass tacks, in the end, fiat currency today has almost the same amount of “roots in reality” as crypto, that is to say, basically, trust (and convenience, plus the “banal” rules of supply and demand).
    For fiat currency, trust the issuing entity will remain economically viable and stable enough to bother with.
    For crypto (especially for BTC) it’s basically trust that electricity and electronics will not all of a sudden become almost free, and no radical development will make “solving” it orders of magnitude easier.
    The need for intrinsic value died long ago alongside the gold standard and the exponential rise of fractional reserve banking.

  4. In the end, aside from issues of trust/persistence touched on above, it all comes down to a matter of convenience, or if you prefer, ease of use.
    A currency with no intrinsic value but easy to use and widely accepted is practically as good as plain old hard cash no matter how much you want to personally believe or disbelieve in it.
    And first movers really do have the advantage, even if slightly more cumbersome, and can keep it for surprisingly long.

  5. Bottom line, crypto in SOME form is here to stay and probably supplant fiat currency eventually in common daily use. Not replace entirely “for the common person”, and not at all/much for (very) large entities.
    Whether any of the current batch will be among those, be it as-is or slightly altered… well, that is another matter altogether and something I don’t have nearly enough data to make even a vague prediction about.

P.S.

  1. To the more specific issue of whether crypto in general (and BTC/ETH and their like in particular) are a bubble, scam, or “involuntary wealth redistribution schemes”… well… yes and no at the same time to all.

They’re all still highly volatile (except stablecoins but that’s another can of worms), and that pretty much makes them all bubbles… if you look on a short enough time scale.
On a long enough time scale, it’s highly dependant on their (software/hardware) development - if supply and adoption rates become stable and demand follows, while they might settle much lower than their peak values, it’s not really a bubble anymore, is it?

As for scams or similar… yeah, from a certain perspective, early adopters (especially “exclusive founding club” style ones) might as well be scamming. Then again, you could say the same about the founders of “unicorns”, especially if they end up eventually flopping. And if they end up becoming stable and widely accepted, can you still call that a scam, or just a really smart move? A matter of taste, I suppose.

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Thanks for posting. I really enjoy reading these long explanations from people who think cryptocurrencies are real.

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Interesting take

In my opinion there are basically three categories.

There is Bitcoin, which is the original invention. It had a unique and very special launch that made it possible to get decentralized and the protocol getting settled before it was popular enough to get corrupted. This can’t be replicated ever again in my opinion. Today the network is so decentralized that it basically can’t be changed, and that is one of it’s most important strengths. This is money with a fixed monetary policy that can’t be changed by anyone and is accessible by everyone. It’s a bit like the internet, it has no owner, it’s just basic infrastructure at this point.

Then there is the Crypto Space, a ton of startups that sprung up around the new concepts Bitcoin introduced, mainly blockchain. Usually this projects are centered around a company or a group of people that control it, mint the initial supply and sell it. It’s in my opinion a new and different form of tech stock. It probably can’t be money if 70% of the supply is created and sold by the creators who also have the final say in changes to the monetary policy

Then there are just meme trash and outright scams. Which is probably 99% of all projects, coins or NFT ■■■■■■■■.

I think Bitcoin is a sure bet. It’s the most decentralized network, and even if all the crypto projects try to paint another picture, it’s still far far ahead when it comes to technology. They are the only ones that solved the scalability issue with the invention of the Lightning Network, and companies even start to use this now as an alternative to the extremely clumsy proprietary payment networks. This guy explains it better than anyone

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Bitcoin is and will stay a gambling asset.

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So you think the invention of the first completely decentralized monetary system that allows people to send money to each other without a third party is without actual value and pure gambling? Or do you simply don’t understand the magnitude of that invention?