I don’t know.
What do you think?
My inside source at CCP says it will go up like ten million percent. Make sure you buy the 20k pack like five times right now so you don’t lose out.
They def should stop plex printing for a while, otherwise it will drop back to 3M a pop.
Nah, let people spend money on CCP, it’s good for both the company and for player retention.
Well there is a obvious over demand on plex ingame, so what is better for a player base spend irl $ for Omega or have it plex’ed ingame for ingame curency? There been an additional plex market on forums bere NY and right after, where people sold plex in bug batch below ingame market. Meaning that there is not much of the options where to apply plex directly with equal cost of the things. Some been trading plex for t2 bpos or supers while the price was stable but now while it kept falling you don’t invest in plex much cause no guarantee it would kicked back to 5M.
As much as you want to say its player driven it is really up to CCP about the price/value of PLEX. Unlike any real market trading, where not everyone knows how much of a resource other people have, CCP knows exactly how much PLEX is being traded, people have stashed, and other relevant metrics. So they can control the ebb and flows of PLEX extraordinarily.
And ultimately its their bottom line they will want to protect and increase. Everything else is speculation on players parts, simply because we dont know what CCP knows.
That being said Id love to see if fall. I like having the ability to switch between cash and PLEX to fund accounts and fun in-game when the occasions come up, and for me as an end user, lower prices are simply better. It is a selfish desire and I know CCP will maintain their markets how they want them, yet that would be an ideal for myself.
PLEX will go up.
Eventually.
It might go further down first.
It will go up, because it’s what ties game value to real life currency. CCP can’t let it drop too low. And if they let it happen, then soon after the fact the server will shut down as well and it will be lights out for everyone.
What is too low for you though? Some seem to think it’s 3mil…which we’ve been at before and things were fine. Heck, back when 1 PLEX=one month of game time, it was as low as 500mil, or 1mil/PLEX with today’s system.
When I started playing, 1 PLEX ( now worth 500 ) cost 800 million.
When PLEX was split 1 → 500, it was less than a 1.5 million each.
Now its regularly worth almost quadruple that and that is AFTER CCP tried to tweak the game to introduce more ‘supply’ to disincentivize hoarding by whales.
PLEX will crash, but at that point EVE will already be dead.
I doesn’t really look like it’s going up. Especially because daily trading average has touched the buy order line, which means more PLEX is dumped on the market to buy orders and the sell orders aren’t getting filled.
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Yet. I believe this is still the extended effect of global PLEX market introduction. It has to plateau out soon.
4.0 is too low. But I believe the game will be able to handle it temporarily. I will start feeling queasy at 3.7m. I believe at 3.6m CCP needs to make an intervention.
It’s not clear what CCP thinks the price should be.
Maybe to a seller. To a buyer, it’s not. The market is regulating itself.
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What is this value based on? Certainly it’s not due to historical values. When the game had it’s peak player PCU, it was around 1mil/PLEX equivalent (between 400-600mil/month of game time).
No, that’s not something we know, and it’s probably defined as a range anyway. Below a certain threshold we enter an instability that I believe is detrimental to the game health. I don’t know exactly where that value is either, but once we start getting there it will be felt across the game in pretty much all aspects.
This is a highly complex topic, and I will try to sum up my thoughts in a concise way, although I will probably not be able to cover all the essential angles here. But here it goes:
PLEX doesn’t function as a regular item on the market. Like a Golem, let’s say. To a point, it does. But its value has wide-ranging consequences to the value of everything else in the game, unlike a Golem. So it has a healthy range within which the game functions normally. And it has an unhealthy range within which the game will undergo deflation.
It needs to be looked at not just in the market context, but in the context of the overall isk generation/destruction in the game. An average player makes X b a month, and he needs to cover certain expenses out of that money every month. New hulls, modules, skillbooks/points, whatever it is his playstyle demands. His playstyle leaves him with a certain surplus in his pocket and depending on the PLEX value he will be able to either PLEX his account out of that surplus or not. To put it in simple terms. The number of players who will do that is the key. That number also has a healthy range and an unhealthy range.
Let’s say 80% of active players are able to PLEX their account and they do. (I don’t think we’ve ever been anywhere near that statistic, I’m just throwing out an extreme number). That means real money subscription rates will drop for CCP. I know it also consequently means that players will still buy PLEX with real life money to meet that increased demand and that will bring in cash flow – but see if PLEX value drops in the game, then players will be less motivated to buy it at the real money prices PLEX is currently at. Because the item is worthless in the game. CCP will need to lower the prices of PLEX packages as well. It’s what is called a negative feedback loop.
Once we enter that, the game is screwed. I don’t know exactly at which PLEX value that will happen (it’s a range not any one discreet value anyway, and CCP might be able to mitigate the situation if they react quickly, but I don’t know if they have defined such a value for themselves or not either). In other words – PLEX can’t drop too low, and I personally don’t think it will. It should balance itself out under normal circumstances. Once its value drops too low, players will no longer buy PLEX packages and less PLEX will enter the game, thus balancing its value. This is how it should go.
For simplicity’s sake I have only quoted subscription in terms of PLEX value, but there are SKINr items and a number of other things as well that create demand for PLEX. But how far will these SKINs and apparel items be able to hold PLEX value just on their own? No idea. It’s a huge unknown and I wouldn’t gamble on it if I was CCP.
It would be great to have more information on this, like the % of players PLEXing their account over the years to make better predictions. But CCP hasn’t published those numbers at all.
I tried to sum up the way I understand it. If anyone sees any huge errors in my logic feel free to point them out.
It’s my gut feeling. I’m not an economist. I may be perfectly off on the values here. You asked what I thought was too low. If I think about it, those are the values I would quote. I do a lot of trading on the market, including PLEX items, and those are the values that will start feeling ‘unstable’ for me. Let’s use that word.
In what year was PLEX value 1m? CCP increased subscription value a couple of years ago. We can’t go back to historical 1m, because economically the world has changed.
During most of the time that a single PLEX paid for the who year, and that PLEX was a total of 400-600mil until shortly before Alpha clones were added. So I took that single plex value and divided by 500 to equate it to how PLEX works now. Peak PCU was in May of 2013 (at 63k), and during that time, PLEX was that cheap. Even after the change, and the addition of Omega, PLEX rose to 3mil. I’m not sure what caused it to raise further as I took a break from the game until Uprising. PLEX being even at 4mil feel very high.
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It is, but the prediction on how the market will behave based on the graph is not complex at all.
Daily average is closer to sell order value: price will go up.
Daily average is closer to buy order value: price will go down.
The causes and consequences of that are not important for a question: “Will it go up or down?“. Only market trends are important.