Looking at the TVP Vindicator basic plan (provided here) and applying it to one of my gallente PI alt who has never trained in combat (maybe, a tiny bit in navigation/engineering, but not enough to matter), he needs 2.2M SP more to qualify, or 1.5-2 months more training.
Assuming that all the skills are unlocked, the 5M SP is more than enough to fly with them. There are quite a few T2 items needed, but given that alphas will get T2 medium weapons, it seems unlikely that they would not get T2 adaptive shield hardeners.
The intermediate training plan amounts to 7.5M SP, which is too much for just training but with the isk you will get flying incursions with the basic skills, you will have the isk to inject, not to mention PLEX your account. This includes getting T2 blasters, which alphas can’t, but, once again, the basic vindicator will be plenty to PLEX your account and keep going.
Presumably, people who want an incursion alt will be able to get one more easily than previously, but it seems unlikely that you would remain an alpha with T1 guns indefinitely when you can afford to PLEX and offset a good chunk of that running cost by running the now unlocked PI. Given that the number of incursion runners is not that high, it seems unlikely that the the ability to create an incursion alt for free, versus ~2 months of sub to get going, will make that much of a difference.